• Jack Holland
    Affymax drug peginesatide gets thumbs up from FDA....Trading in Shares of AFFY halted....
    3/27/12
    Reply (35)
    • FortSumter: What's your thoughts going forward? Buy out by bigger pharma? Climb to $16-17 and flatline. Hard to predict.
      3/27/12
    • bigfoot: I still have a $30 target, based on predicted revenues once drug hits market later this year.
      3/27/12
    • bigfoot: Buyout seems less likely, given that Takeda already has co-marketing rights and Affymax doesn't have anything else in the FDA pipeline yet.
      3/27/12
    • Aloha96815: Do you anticipate the price the stock price to go up significantly or is approval predominantly priced in?
      3/27/12
    • bigfoot: Suppose the drug gets 20% of the market. That's about $100M a year in sales. That could give it a market cap of around $800M - $1 billion.
      3/27/12
    • bigfoot: Current market cap at today's price is under $600M, so that suggests price goes up.
      3/27/12
    • FortSumter: As I understand it, the drug is cheaper and more effective so once the marketing machine revs up, 20% seems doable.
      3/27/12
    • bigfoot: Hard to say what it will do short term (today and next few weeks) but by December this stock could run up to at least $20.
      3/27/12
    • FortSumter: It's going to be a long afternoon to wait for what happens. The manipulation this morning was rough.
      3/27/12
    • FortSumter: I'm in @ $10 so I got a lot riding on this. VVUS part deux?
      3/27/12
    • bigfoot: main advantage for patients (other than price) is that it is a once-a-month drug, as opposed to every 2 days or so for main competitor.
      3/27/12
    • bigfoot: I'm in at $7.64 on average. :-)
      3/27/12
    • Jack Holland: I think the shorts tried to flush out the weak hands this morning; I think the shorts are fixing to get their comeuppance shortly
      3/27/12
    • bigfoot: Could be, short interest was up in latest report (Monday), but 600K shares moved in 2 minutes during that drop.
      3/27/12
    • bigfoot: Status has been updated from T1 (news pending) to T2 (news disseminated), resumption time should be posted next.
      3/27/12
    • bigfoot: will reopen at 2:40 (12 minutes from now)
      3/27/12
    • FortSumter: thanks BF. good for you on your purchase price. on any significant uptrend, i'm out......i think. greed is a horrible thing.
      3/27/12
    • bigfoot: My target was $30 in 2010, it is still $30.
      3/27/12
    • bigfoot: EU market approval comes next.
      3/27/12
    • FortSumter: sorry, i meant my greed. no insinuation intended.
      3/27/12
    • bigfoot: I am, however, starting to think about lightening up on my SIRI position, which is even older.
      3/27/12
    • bigfoot: But I still own some shares at $9 (ugh!) though my average is around $1.
      3/27/12
    • bigfoot: quotes should start coming in soon. Yup.
      3/27/12
    • bigfoot: initial quotes below last sale, could be wild ride
      3/27/12
    • bigfoot: Spiked up to $16.25, then back to $15.
      3/27/12
    • FortSumter: SIRI - dont get me started. time to watch AFFY tick by tick
      3/27/12
    • bigfoot: Wonder if AFFY will close above $15 or not today. My guess is it does.
      3/27/12
    • FortSumter: it's all over the place. shorts are starting to jump in since the bump after halt wasnt high enough in their opinion.
      3/27/12
    • bigfoot: well, I missed on that closing call :-( But AFFY still up 4.15% on the day.
      3/27/12
    • bilalbezri: question: i am long the stock (I am interested in short term gains), also got 2 calls at 9$ strike. what should i do? is there more to get?
      3/27/12
    • bilalbezri: question: i am long the stock (I am interested in short term gains), also got 2 calls at 9$ strike. what should i do? is there more to get?
      3/27/12
    • bigfoot: Who knows? The action today wound up being on the upside, so my guess is that it could continue to trend up slowly towards $20 by year end
      3/27/12
    • bigfoot: But if some big shot analyst disses it (or hypes it), that could cause a big reaction.
      3/27/12
    • bigfoot: If you're playing the short term, might be best to take profits soon. As they say, you'll never go broke taking a profit.
      3/27/12
    • bilalbezri: Yes, I just placed a sell at 15$ hoping for an early jump tomorrow, should've sold at 15.20. Same with calls at 5.50..greed is not good.
      3/28/12