Understanding Manufacturing Economics For Grid-Scale Energy Storage [View article]
John,
As an MIT professor of mathematics once said "All innovation comes from the depths of the human mind and then we figure out how to get a machine to do it." This is a first-class example of ingenuity finding a solution. Its actually the realization of the "smart grid" with the caveat that it must make a profit from the first day, so that it must, by that necessity, be limited in scope. At the risk of insulting some of the existing 1% (whose ranks we all dearly want to join) I would like to say that all of the politicians nonsense about a massive smart grid built upon a trillion dollar network that doesn't exist are put to shame by this venture.
Now if only someone could explain the economics of life to a president who asked Steve Jobs "when can these (computer assembly) jobs come back to the USA (from Apple)?" The answer was "Never."
Why The Electric Vehicle House Of Cards Must Fall [View article]
John,
You, of course, are right. And calling in to play "Catch 22' is very appropriate. Environmentalism, the religion, seeks perfection, so whenever you have reached a goal the bar is simply reset higher. There's no baseline of the most good for the most people with the economic reality we have.
There's also something insidious going on here. In ancient Rome taxes were levied on the productive classes to maintain the army and to feed the mob. The luxury lifestyle of the ruling elite was considered a perk of power. I've become more and more amazed during my lifetime as I've watched so-called pundits cry out against America as the New Rome for being imperialist in its foreign policy, while in fact we have become the new Rome by levying taxes on the productive to maintain the perks of the ruling elite, feed the mob, and support the Army.
The driving fantasy of "climate change" is the same as those who wish to preserve each and every species no matter what the cost to our standard of living. It is that we live in an ideal world, or can still revert to that idealized world, that evil science and technology are destroying. It is Luddism pure and simple.
The dumbing down of western education is the culprit here along with the rise of a righteous liberalism which hates non-believers. Oh, I forgot, that's now called the new progressiveness.
Economic gravity is surely straining Atlas. He'll shrug soon.I think so anyway.
Morgan Stanley's New Dance Step: The Electric Crawfish [View article]
John,
Please graph the sales of the Chevrolet Cruze vs the sales of the Chevrolet Volt for the same time period. This will enable your readers to understand that homo sapiens trend and tend to conserve resources in adverse economic weather.
The chatter in Detroit is today that GM should have introduced the Volt as a Cadillac to justify the price and to attract the first adopters who are frequently of the idle rich class. Then, it is said here, if it worked, it could have been introduced for the masses. Note that GM is now actually about to introduce a Cadillac version of the Volt. I used to be cynical about this typical "ass backwards" approach to marketing by Detroit, but, as I get older, I am realizing that they are just ordinary guys and gals in, for example, GM marketing, and they are led around by the Madison Ave hucksters by the nose and other protuberances and I forgive them, because they know not what they do.
Decoupling The Rare-Earth Junior-Mining Market From Emphasis On Molycorp And Lynas [View instapost]
Mr. Holt,
As I began to work closely with that segment of the junior mining industry involved with the rare earths I noted that the total supply chain issue though critical was basically just ignored. Over the last two years I have seen very little appreciation for the complexity of the supply chain issue and a huge irrelevant amount of attention paid to speculations on ore concentrate production levels and the extraction of the metal values from that concentrate into a process leach solution. I think this is because it is at that point, common to most metal mining, that the common wisdom of geologists stops. A rare earths' industry in America, if there is to be one, will require sophisticated technical management as well as financial managers who understand that profitable daily operation is not the same thing as share price appreciation. I have lost interest in the hucksters and promoters. I am looking only for rational business opportunities that can meet delivery schedules on time and to specification.
It would be nice if companies that announced large increases in production were actually in production from newly mined and continuously produced resources, but perhaps I am asking too much.
Molycorp (MCP) has been hurt by the recent crash in rare earth metal prices, but thinks the crash could boost its competitive standing, by making it harder for would-be competitors to obtain funding. The company adds it's "looking to acquire downstream companies that can process rare-earth oxides and produce magnets." [View news story]
I'm totally confused here.
The quote is: The company adds it's "looking to acquire downstream companies that can process rare-earth oxides and produce magnets."
I thought that the "company" had those skills in place when it went public. Is the "company" now saying that it didn't have those skills in place when it implied and said it did, or that it has yet to find them, and, of course, this was the plan all along?
As I recall the block diagram of the supply chain in the SEC filings by MCP it showed that the most profit was to be made through the margins the company would achieve manufacturing and selling rare earth permanent magnets. Was the operative mood of that filing denominated by "could achieve, if and when..."
Is the Molycorp board satisfied with management's results NOW. I know the insiders were thrilled when they cashed out months ago, but the company has changed directions so much lately that I am thoroughly confused as to what the path is that the company will take to making steady PROFITS rather than endless conflicting announcements.
The company desperately needs some independent board members and a clear direction.
Is Stop-Start Idle Elimination Crushing Vehicle Electrification? [View article]
John,
This is a great article. You are absolutely spot on as far as I can tell here in Detroit. A friend of mine recently urged me not to buy a car right now, but to wait for the Buick Lacrosse "micro-hybrid" in the 2012 model year. He drove one recently and said it was the smoothest driving car he ever experienced. My "take" here in the smaller Motor City is that hybrids and EVs are seen as a niche market today and as a SS hybrid market tomorrow. I'm actually starting to get a good feeling about GM's future based on this. It may be something in the water here though.
12 Stocks Happy To See The Third Quarter End [View article]
Why do all of you stock pickers refer to Molycorp as a leader in rare earth mineral mining? Molycorp hasn't produced any new rare earth ore, as far as I know, for processing since the 20th century. It is processing today ore concentrates that were last run before 2002.
I understand why the NY Times gets confused, but I do not understand why you are.
If Molycorp is mining again then ask them what volumes they are producing, how much they are concentrating daily, and to what degree of concentration, and how much they are running through of it in their separation plant daily.
Until then please stop calling them a mining company. They are a processor of ore concentrates.
JP Morgan and Decoupling the Molycorp (MCP)engine from the Rare Earth Sector [View instapost]
When a material is as rare as erbium it would take an application that is market shifting or life prolonging to drive any attempt to produce it in steady commercial quantities. The fact that a material can be used for a process doesn't mean the same thing as it must be used.
Its all about economics.
The other day I had a call from a person who wanted to know what i thought of "synthetic" lithium. I told him that known lithium supplies are adequate for any foreseeable demand and that lithium is cheap. The price of lithium is not the driver in reducing costs in lithium-ion batteries. He was unhappy, becasue some promoter sold him on lithium shortages and "synthetic" lithium.
There simply isn't enough and could never be enough erbium for any but marginal uses. I THINK.
Rhodium is considered by the US National Academies to be the "most" critical industrial metal, because it is the only acceptable basis of the catalytic treatment of nitrogen oxides (acid rain) to change them to nitrogen for the OEM automotive industry. Without a catalytic converter in place on a car manufactured or to be sold in the USA the car CANNOT be offered for sale. Thus a shortage of rhodium would shut down the American OEM automotive industry's operations. As for the rest I note that some of us have been saying that the rare earths are only the tip of the natural resources iceberg now heading for our thin-skinned Titanic economies in the west. Watch out!
The Fast Growing Rare Earth Crisis In The United States [View article]
Some encouraging news:
The University of Alaska (Fairbanks) and the Alaska Dept of Natural Resources are sponsoring a seminar on the value of rare metals in general and rare earths in particular to Alaska's (and America's) industrial self-sufficiency. This will be on September 30. Both the Governor of Alaska and its senior US Senator are scheduled to be in attendance. Both support the development of projects such as Ucore's Bokan Mountain deposits.
I am one of three speakers in the morning session; the Governor is scheduled to be the lunch speaker, and in the afternoon plans to develop resources, such as Bokan Mountain in particular, are going to be discussed by the participants.
This is the moment for America to start rebuilding economy through wealth creation and self sufficiency.
Does anyone understand how difficult it would be for the two largest solvent exchange rare earth separation plants ever constructed; one in Malaysia, apparently of 11,000 tons yearly flow through capacity, and one in California, apparently larger than that, to be built charged with solvents, tested and put into full production in less than 2-3 years? Apparently not.
This author seems to confuse rare earth ore concentrates containing the equivalent of, say, 10,000 tons of rare earth oxides "equivalent" with 10,000 tons of separated commercially pure "oxides."
Mechanically concentrated rare earth ores can either be stockpiled, or sold to China, until the capacity exists to separate them outside of China. Molycorp admits that its total separation capacity today, if the old Mountain pass plant is still running, is, with Silmet, some 6,000 tons in all.
The question to ask is WHEN will Molycorp and/or Lynas have operating new solvent exchange capacity to produce 99.99% lanthanum oxide and cerium oxide and 99.5% neodymium oxide, not didymium.
Until they know the date that their new capacity will come on line and be fully operational all either company can do is mechanically concentrate ore, and in Molycorp's case, extract the rare earth values from the concentrate to the capacity of their existing separation facilities.
It's Time To Kill The Electric Car, Drive A Stake Through Its Heart And Burn The Corpse [View article]
John,
An outstanding essay. Definitive and certainly among your best on this very important topic, if not the best ever written by anyone on this topic. The World Energy Council certainly made a good choice.
It boggles the mind to think that the problem with natural resources will be the ability of the current population of the western world to hold on to its per capita usage even as the number of people who want to be on that level doubles or triples. I don't see how it will be possible, and I don't see how to avoid a decline in the American standard of living as the global rate of the production of all metals fails to keep up with the rate of growth of Asian GDPs.
The Number of Nearest-in-Time Potential American Critical Heavy Rare Earths Producers is Increased by One: The Coming Rare Earth Junior Mining Cull, Crystal Balls and Brass Balls [View instapost]
Your perception is correct, but supplying the US market with critical rare earth raw materials cannot be done by just one or the other of the two companies. This is not a simple contest it is a fight for the survival of America's high tech industry.
Both mining company's projects are in development, and I personally believe that both will be funded and both will come on line and go to full production by 2015. We need both of them to achieve or approach domestic self-reliance in europium, terbium, dysprosium, and yttrium, four of the five critical rare earths. In addition, as I said, if they each market their outputs ONLY as "fluid cracking catalyst," "rare earth permanent magnet," or phosphor 'raw materials' then they can each be profitable, because such marketing will require that their customers take lanthanum and cerium, neodymium and dysprosium, or yttrium and europium or terbium, together.
The domestic American market for the types of raw materials above can be nearly completely satisfied by the output of those two companies domestic American deposits. If there is a lanthanum shortfall it can be made up by the production from Molycorp, which I assume is targeting the enormous demand for some of its light rare earths overseas.
The USA must have BOTH Ucore and REE production of HREEs and yttrium in order to be self-suffcient, and, to paraphrase, no company is an island entire of itself.
By the way both are a bargain at today's share prices.
Thank you. Your remarks are fascinating as well as a peek at the world of Japanese corporate inter-relationships. I'm sure that there are wheels within wheels of Japanese industrial intrigue going on here, and I'm sure we will never really know why this transaction occurred. I am sure however that Japanese companies are most interested in their own welfare and survival and care little about what happens to American competitors. I doubt very much if its a mystery in a deal between Hitachi and MCP as to "who's on top."
Thank you. I actually enjoyed the David and Goliath thing with these arrogant asses who think that if they surround themselves with yes-drones they are safe from criticism. In my case I think that I was pointing out that the emperor's wardrobes had malfunctioned badly, and they got scared of catching a cold wind you know where.
Understanding Manufacturing Economics For Grid-Scale Energy Storage [View article]
As an MIT professor of mathematics once said "All innovation comes from the depths of the human mind and then we figure out how to get a machine to do it."
This is a first-class example of ingenuity finding a solution. Its actually the realization of the "smart grid" with the caveat that it must make a profit from the first day, so that it must, by that necessity, be limited in scope. At the risk of insulting some of the existing 1% (whose ranks we all dearly want to join) I would like to say that all of the politicians nonsense about a massive smart grid built upon a trillion dollar network that doesn't exist are put to shame by this venture.
Now if only someone could explain the economics of life to a president who asked Steve Jobs "when can these (computer assembly) jobs come back to the USA (from Apple)?" The answer was "Never."
Why The Electric Vehicle House Of Cards Must Fall [View article]
You, of course, are right. And calling in to play "Catch 22' is very appropriate. Environmentalism, the religion, seeks perfection, so whenever you have reached a goal the bar is simply reset higher. There's no baseline of the most good for the most people with the economic reality we have.
There's also something insidious going on here. In ancient Rome taxes were levied on the productive classes to maintain the army and to feed the mob. The luxury lifestyle of the ruling elite was considered a perk of power. I've become more and more amazed during my lifetime as I've watched so-called pundits cry out against America as the New Rome for being imperialist in its foreign policy, while in fact we have become the new Rome by levying taxes on the productive to maintain the perks of the ruling elite, feed the mob, and support the Army.
The driving fantasy of "climate change" is the same as those who wish to preserve each and every species no matter what the cost to our standard of living. It is that we live in an ideal world, or can still revert to that idealized world, that evil science and technology are destroying. It is Luddism pure and simple.
The dumbing down of western education is the culprit here along with the rise of a righteous liberalism which hates non-believers. Oh, I forgot, that's now called the new progressiveness.
Economic gravity is surely straining Atlas. He'll shrug soon.I think so anyway.
Jack Lifton
Morgan Stanley's New Dance Step: The Electric Crawfish [View article]
Please graph the sales of the Chevrolet Cruze vs the sales of the Chevrolet Volt for the same time period. This will enable your readers to understand that homo sapiens trend and tend to conserve resources in adverse economic weather.
The chatter in Detroit is today that GM should have introduced the Volt as a Cadillac to justify the price and to attract the first adopters who are frequently of the idle rich class. Then, it is said here, if it worked, it could have been introduced for the masses. Note that GM is now actually about to introduce a Cadillac version of the Volt. I used to be cynical about this typical "ass backwards" approach to marketing by Detroit, but, as I get older, I am realizing that they are just ordinary guys and gals in, for example, GM marketing, and they are led around by the Madison Ave hucksters by the nose and other protuberances and I forgive them, because they know not what they do.
Decoupling The Rare-Earth Junior-Mining Market From Emphasis On Molycorp And Lynas [View instapost]
As I began to work closely with that segment of the junior mining industry involved with the rare earths I noted that the total supply chain issue though critical was basically just ignored. Over the last two years I have seen very little appreciation for the complexity of the supply chain issue and a huge irrelevant amount of attention paid to speculations on ore concentrate production levels and the extraction of the metal values from that concentrate into a process leach solution. I think this is because it is at that point, common to most metal mining, that the common wisdom of geologists stops. A rare earths' industry in America, if there is to be one, will require sophisticated technical management as well as financial managers who understand that profitable daily operation is not the same thing as share price appreciation. I have lost interest in the hucksters and promoters. I am looking only for rational business opportunities that can meet delivery schedules on time and to specification.
It would be nice if companies that announced large increases in production were actually in production from newly mined and continuously produced resources, but perhaps I am asking too much.
I learn through experience.
I do appreciate your study of then and now.
Thanks,
Jack Lifton
Molycorp (MCP) has been hurt by the recent crash in rare earth metal prices, but thinks the crash could boost its competitive standing, by making it harder for would-be competitors to obtain funding. The company adds it's "looking to acquire downstream companies that can process rare-earth oxides and produce magnets." [View news story]
The quote is: The company adds it's "looking to acquire downstream companies that can process rare-earth oxides and produce magnets."
I thought that the "company" had those skills in place when it went public. Is the "company" now saying that it didn't have those skills in place when it implied and said it did, or that it has yet to find them, and, of course, this was the plan all along?
As I recall the block diagram of the supply chain in the SEC filings by MCP it showed that the most profit was to be made through the margins the company would achieve manufacturing and selling rare earth permanent magnets. Was the operative mood of that filing denominated by "could achieve, if and when..."
Is the Molycorp board satisfied with management's results NOW. I know the insiders were thrilled when they cashed out months ago, but the company has changed directions so much lately that I am thoroughly confused as to what the path is that the company will take to making steady PROFITS rather than endless conflicting announcements.
The company desperately needs some independent board members and a clear direction.
Is Stop-Start Idle Elimination Crushing Vehicle Electrification? [View article]
This is a great article. You are absolutely spot on as far as I can tell here in Detroit. A friend of mine recently urged me not to buy a car right now, but to wait for the Buick Lacrosse "micro-hybrid" in the 2012 model year. He drove one recently and said it was the smoothest driving car he ever experienced. My "take" here in the smaller Motor City is that hybrids and EVs are seen as a niche market today and as a SS hybrid market tomorrow. I'm actually starting to get a good feeling about GM's future based on this. It may be something in the water here though.
Keep on starting and stopping
12 Stocks Happy To See The Third Quarter End [View article]
I understand why the NY Times gets confused, but I do not understand why you are.
If Molycorp is mining again then ask them what volumes they are producing, how much they are concentrating daily, and to what degree of concentration, and how much they are running through of it in their separation plant daily.
Until then please stop calling them a mining company. They are a processor of ore concentrates.
JP Morgan and Decoupling the Molycorp (MCP)engine from the Rare Earth Sector [View instapost]
Its all about economics.
The other day I had a call from a person who wanted to know what i thought of "synthetic" lithium. I told him that known lithium supplies are adequate for any foreseeable demand and that lithium is cheap. The price of lithium is not the driver in reducing costs in lithium-ion batteries. He was unhappy, becasue some promoter sold him on lithium shortages and "synthetic" lithium.
There simply isn't enough and could never be enough erbium for any but marginal uses. I THINK.
The Most At-Risk Metals [View article]
As for the rest I note that some of us have been saying that the rare earths are only the tip of the natural resources iceberg now heading for our thin-skinned Titanic economies in the west. Watch out!
The Fast Growing Rare Earth Crisis In The United States [View article]
The University of Alaska (Fairbanks) and the Alaska Dept of Natural Resources are sponsoring a seminar on the value of rare metals in general and rare earths in particular to Alaska's (and America's) industrial self-sufficiency. This will be on September 30. Both the Governor of Alaska and its senior US Senator are scheduled to be in attendance. Both support the development of projects such as Ucore's Bokan Mountain deposits.
I am one of three speakers in the morning session; the Governor is scheduled to be the lunch speaker, and in the afternoon plans to develop resources, such as Bokan Mountain in particular, are going to be discussed by the participants.
This is the moment for America to start rebuilding economy through wealth creation and self sufficiency.
Rare Earth Elements' New Trend [View article]
This author seems to confuse rare earth ore concentrates containing the equivalent of, say, 10,000 tons of rare earth oxides "equivalent" with 10,000 tons of separated commercially pure "oxides."
Mechanically concentrated rare earth ores can either be stockpiled, or sold to China, until the capacity exists to separate them outside of China. Molycorp admits that its total separation capacity today, if the old Mountain pass plant is still running, is, with Silmet, some 6,000 tons in all.
The question to ask is WHEN will Molycorp and/or Lynas have operating new solvent exchange capacity to produce 99.99% lanthanum oxide and cerium oxide and 99.5% neodymium oxide, not didymium.
Until they know the date that their new capacity will come on line and be fully operational all either company can do is mechanically concentrate ore, and in Molycorp's case, extract the rare earth values from the concentrate to the capacity of their existing separation facilities.
It's Time To Kill The Electric Car, Drive A Stake Through Its Heart And Burn The Corpse [View article]
An outstanding essay. Definitive and certainly among your best on this very important topic, if not the best ever written by anyone on this topic. The World Energy Council certainly made a good choice.
It boggles the mind to think that the problem with natural resources will be the ability of the current population of the western world to hold on to its per capita usage even as the number of people who want to be on that level doubles or triples. I don't see how it will be possible, and I don't see how to avoid a decline in the American standard of living as the global rate of the production of all metals fails to keep up with the rate of growth of Asian GDPs.
Jack
The Number of Nearest-in-Time Potential American Critical Heavy Rare Earths Producers is Increased by One: The Coming Rare Earth Junior Mining Cull, Crystal Balls and Brass Balls [View instapost]
Both mining company's projects are in development, and I personally believe that both will be funded and both will come on line and go to full production by 2015. We need both of them to achieve or approach domestic self-reliance in europium, terbium, dysprosium, and yttrium, four of the five critical rare earths. In addition, as I said, if they each market their outputs ONLY as "fluid cracking catalyst," "rare earth permanent magnet," or phosphor 'raw materials' then they can each be profitable, because such marketing will require that their customers take lanthanum and cerium, neodymium and dysprosium, or yttrium and europium or terbium, together.
The domestic American market for the types of raw materials above can be nearly completely satisfied by the output of those two companies domestic American deposits. If there is a lanthanum shortfall it can be made up by the production from Molycorp, which I assume is targeting the enormous demand for some of its light rare earths overseas.
The USA must have BOTH Ucore and REE production of HREEs and yttrium in order to be self-suffcient, and, to paraphrase, no company is an island entire of itself.
By the way both are a bargain at today's share prices.
Rare Earths, Reality, and High Finance [View instapost]
Thank you. Your remarks are fascinating as well as a peek at the world of Japanese corporate inter-relationships. I'm sure that there are wheels within wheels of Japanese industrial intrigue going on here, and I'm sure we will never really know why this transaction occurred. I am sure however that Japanese companies are most interested in their own welfare and survival and care little about what happens to American competitors. I doubt very much if its a mystery in a deal between Hitachi and MCP as to "who's on top."
Jack
Rare Earths, Reality, and High Finance [View instapost]
Thank you. I actually enjoyed the David and Goliath thing with these arrogant asses who think that if they surround themselves with yes-drones they are safe from criticism. In my case I think that I was pointing out that the emperor's wardrobes had malfunctioned badly, and they got scared of catching a cold wind you know where.
Jack