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Jack Lifton  

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  • Lies, Damned Lies, And Statistics: China's Preoccupation With GDP Growth [View article]
    Shouldn't your second sentence be something like:

    For this reason, the US' Democrat party is focused on restoring economic growth to a level as high as it has been on average in the past four decades.
    Mar 22, 2015. 09:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'REE Basket Price' Deception And The Clarity Of Opex [View article]
    Rockstone,

    In the last week I have been called a "lightweight," a "shill," and a "guru." I proudly add "flamboyant" to my list of appellations.

    Note that I now refer to those rare earths from a particular deposit/processing plant that are actually of value in the market as:

    "market critical rare earths, MCREs" Thus in a typical light rare earth distribution such as that at Mountain Pass I would value only Neodymium and Praseodymium in computing an absurd "basket price." My calculation would be the total revenues of the Nd and Pr and/or the Nd/Pr in the form sold by the company minus the total cost of separating all of the rare earths contained in the original mixed concentrate minus the cost of storing or disposing of the unsale-able Ce and La. The idea of calling Ce and La produced at above the market price for which they can be sold "inventory" is almost as absurd as using the undefined term "basket price" as a general term.

    Thanks for the reference,

    Flamboyant Jack
    Mar 14, 2015. 08:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Molycorp Be Delisted? [View article]
    Professor,

    Not only that but for the Nickel metal hydride (lanthanum is the other metal in the hydride blend) batteries that Panasonic does make it is sourcing lanthanum either in China or from Lynas-Molycorp is not a factor). Tesla does not use rare earth permanent magnet drive-train motors, but of course rare earth permanent magnets are used in a large variety of motors and sensors in the vehicles. These REPMs are of the sintered variety not the bonded type made by Molycorp China, so Molycorp really has no advantage there either.

    Jack
    Feb 1, 2015. 01:13 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bankruptcy Rumors Hammer Molycorp [View article]
    Michael,

    I am intrigued to discover why Molymet has made such a large investment. It, Molymet, is a relatively new very well run venture. Why it got involved in such a poorly run venture as Molycorp it will need to explain to its shareholders.

    Demand is not going to grow fast enough to help Molycorp, because demand is geographically sited and the fastest growing sites are in Asia and Africa. Those markets are saturated by Chinese entrepreneurs and they are confronted by local businessmen with local resources. Molycorp is not a raw material player in those markets. Not at all.

    Jack
    Jan 23, 2015. 10:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bankruptcy Rumors Hammer Molycorp [View article]
    Patrick

    I believe that you are correct about one thing: The addition of an HRE separation unit to the existing operation at Mountain Pass would not at all need large CAPEX. The problem will be how to restructure the beast to cut the huge fixed overhead of full production of money losing amounts of LREs. You are wrong about the strength of Molycorp's vertical integration, which is today geographically and politically incoherent. Molycorp needs a lot of thought before all the kings' horses and all the kings capital can put Humpty Molycorp back together again so as to become competitive.

    Jack
    Jan 23, 2015. 10:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bankruptcy Rumors Hammer Molycorp [View article]
    The rare earths' infinite sized markets fantasists have always viewed Molycorp as inevitable and a mine whose time has come (back). Even as the ocean of reality washes over the decks of this Titanic of American mining mistakes they will insist that a new captain can right the ship after just (yet) one more set of repairs to its balance sheet. Thus according to their own arguments Constantine Karyannopoulos and his chosen successor, Geoff Bedford, must be failures since the idea of the mine and of Molycorp is sound, right?
    Jan 23, 2015. 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bankruptcy Rumors Hammer Molycorp [View article]
    The rare earths' infinite sized markets fantasists have always viewed Molycorp as inevitable and a mine whose time has come (back). Even as the ocean of reality washes over the decks of this Titanic of American mining mistakes they will insist that a new captain can right the ship after just (yet) one more set of repairs to its balance sheet. Thus according to their own arguments Constantine Karyannopoulos and his chosen successor, Geoff Bedford, must be failures since the idea of the mine and of Molycorp is sound, right?
    Jan 23, 2015. 09:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp crushed on bankruptcy rumor [View news story]
    MolyTacoWagon,

    You are correct, but I hope that the magnitude of this scam will soon be the subject of a Harvard Case Study of a Wall Street focused on greed in an America that has lost its way. Jobs for Americans, domestic self sufficiency in raw materials; and the maintenance of America's leads in high tech industries don't seem to matter to those who run scams like this one.

    Molycorp was a story of greed; it had nothing to do with changing the dynamic of the global or American rare earths markets.

    The development of a total American rare earth supply chain is still an imperative. Forget Molycorp.

    Jack Lifton
    Jan 22, 2015. 07:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eric Noyrez, Global Rare Earth Minerals Industry Veteran, Joins Texas Rare Earth Resources Board of Directors [View article]
    I believe that Eric Noyrez is the most experienced and most knowledgeable person in both the operations of the rare earths markets and of the rare earths supply chain in the non-Chinese world. I welcome his vote of confidence in the quality of the Texas Rare Earth Resources project and in the probability of its commercial success.

    Jack Lifton
    TRER Member of the Board
    Dec 30, 2014. 08:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Closer Look At Ucore's Switch To Molecular Recognition Technology [View article]
    Ben,

    Your comment:

    "So investors have come to two primary realizations during the cyclical bear market in the REE junior mining space: a winner in the REE space is going to have a deposit that generates most of its value from heavy REEs, and it is going to develop (or partner with a company that will develop) a technology that can economically separate these REEs in an environmentally friendly manner."

    is EXACTLY CORRECT. I just hope that investors have in fact reached that conclusion.

    Jack Lifton
    Dec 18, 2014. 10:02 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Great Western Minerals' Loss Widens On Rising Expenses [View article]
    How are you calculating your market cap figure? SA shows it as under USD19 million.
    LCM as a stand alone venture might be a ble to grow enough to survive, but with the Albatross of the current GWMG management I doubt it.
    Nov 21, 2014. 09:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Resources Segment Is Killing Molycorp [View article]
    Thank you. I really had blocked out that MCP is a NYSE listed company.
    Nov 20, 2014. 11:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Resources Segment Is Killing Molycorp [View article]
    Ausheds,

    I noted this aspect of the powder market in Ningbo last March when many presenters held themselves out as powder makers in direct competition with Magnequench. I even reported it on InvestorIntel, but it didn't seem to have any traction.

    Can someone tell me when MCP will be delisted on the AMEX? It has been below $4 for just over 6 months without a single day in that period being above $4.

    Just wondering.
    Nov 19, 2014. 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp: Will Q3 Results Trigger S&P Upgrade? [View article]
    There's a rumor today that one of the well-known Canadian rare earth juniors is exiting the rare earth sector and will develop other technology metal deposits. This is more likely to have caused the after hours decline than the ongoing and routine and boring dismal Molycorp news.
    Nov 5, 2014. 05:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Kaiser's Tips For Escaping The Resource Sector Swamp Alive [View article]
    John,

    Some thoughts:

    You are right about HREs. The Chinese are or believe they are in danger of exhausting their domestic supplies of HREs, which are critical for maximizing the efficiency of consumer as well as military electronics. As China shifts from an export led to a domestic consumption led economy it is increasingly important to its central planners to conserve a resource such as HREs, which, as of now, ONLY China has bothered to produce at all.

    It may in fact be critical for the industrialized world that HREs be produced outside of China for two reasons: 1. A best case scenario where China continues to export HRE enabled consumer electronics will mean that China has access to sufficient HREs so that it can satisfy its domestic needs and also have, or have access to, a surplus for export, or 2. China decides to conserve HREs and its export of HREs ceases, so that the non Chinese world has to produce its own HREs if it wishes to produce rare earth enabled devices, . Neither scenario seems possible without new non Chinese production of HREs.

    I'm betting on the lowest CAPEX, HRE producing, projects in North America to be developed in the near term. These would be Rare Element Resources, Ucore Rare Metals, and Texas Rare Earth Resources. In Australia I agree with you that Northern Minerals looks very good although its CAPEX is higher than the rest. In Africa I think the best choice is Namibia. Tasman Metals in Europe (Sweden) is another choice, because without its production of HREs the EU as a high tech manufacturing center becomes totally dependent on the good will of China. With Tasman's deposit as an anchor Europe would have a totally integrated domestic rare earth magnet and phosphor industry

    The next problem will be refining capacity. Without it any HREs produced outside of China would need to use only Solvay's LaRochelle, France, solvent extraction facility, but it has only a limited capacity.

    I think we will see new HRE focused toll refineries both in North America and in Europe before 2020, and they will be fed by one, several, or all of the above deposits. There is also a distinct probability that some of the North American deposits will be vertically integrated with newly developed accelerated solvent extraction technologies or other technologies newly applied to the separation of the rare earths.

    We have been living in a world of increasing metal mining driven by Chinese demand. Chinese demand will not simply evaporate, but it has been reduced.

    It is time we enumerated critical resource "deposits," which are not the same as deposits of critical resources. Critical resource deposits are those the development of which are necessary for the world's economy to grow and to be maintained.

    It is also time that the pricing of critical materials becomes transparent.

    I think you are one of the most astute of the resource analysts today, and I pay close attention to your work.

    Jack Lifton
    Oct 15, 2014. 10:35 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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