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Jack Rice  

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  • Facebook's DAU Figure May Decelerate In FY 2015 [View article]
    Btw, today's FB sell-off started with the headline, "Did Facebook Inc Make Bono A Billionaire?" Tells you something about the market.
    Aug 31, 2015. 09:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook's DAU Figure May Decelerate In FY 2015 [View article]
    Didn't even mention the most important FB initiative to spur user growth in the developing world,
    Aug 31, 2015. 08:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook's DAU Figure May Decelerate In FY 2015 [View article]
    Alex, the deceleration means the existing user universe with existing platforms is becoming saturated. You say they need new ways for reaching the developing world. Well, this is exactly what they are doing. It's the idea behind FB lite, decoupled Messenger, WhatsApp, access point drones and other initiatives -- lower bandwidth requirement, untethering from telcos and reception in remote areas.

    Growth deceleration is a big number phenomenon. It won't be a problem if FB executes its user development plans. And since we're long FB, we have confidence they will execute.

    I appreciate top-line growth. To me as an investor, top line growth not only means users but revenue. I must agree with young and rich that the current FB user universe is so enormous in the markets advertisers want, that as an investor I am more concerned with monetizating than with user growth. Both are important, but monetization should be the higher priority. As an investor I say, enough pump-priming!

    By the way, the billion-user mark which Zuck announced got dismissed by cynics and other yokels, who toss out the usual garbage about sign-ins for other sites or bots or yada-yada. That's ridiculous. First, FB factors those things in as well as they can. They aren't foolish enough to inflate stats they need to sell advertising -- those stats are audited. Second, Zuck doesn't go public personally unless he believes the number is genuine. (Just like Tim Cook says iPhone sales are great in China.) Third, rven if this is a raw figure, it's still a milestone. One can take away what one will, but I say: That many signed on in one day is phenomenal.
    Aug 31, 2015. 07:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook first: 1B people use it in a single day, Zuckerberg says [View news story]
    Liking just gets their updates on your timeline. If you want that, then like SA. If not, then don't.
    Aug 28, 2015. 12:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook first: 1B people use it in a single day, Zuckerberg says [View news story]
    Yes! Mark and Elon.
    Aug 27, 2015. 10:30 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook first: 1B people use it in a single day, Zuckerberg says [View news story]
    Asked and answered.
    Aug 27, 2015. 08:57 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook first: 1B people use it in a single day, Zuckerberg says [View news story]
    And without China!
    Aug 27, 2015. 08:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook first: 1B people use it in a single day, Zuckerberg says [View news story]
    Yes, from a socio-political standpoint I don't like it either. It's already been happening with migrants who want what we've got, and I don't mean our values. Social media was the catalyst for the Arab Spring, and we know how that came out. Jihadis coördinating with their smartphones.

    What it indeed comes down to is people in the shitholes of the world becoming acutely aware of it by comparison with the developed world, rendered stark by social media. I think in certain parts improvement is impossible, simply because the habitats have no resources. So the only alternative is to move.

    The great catastrophes of history, and probably pre-history, are caused by mass migrations. I should like to pose this to Mr. Mark. I should like to pose this question to Mr. Bill, as he rids the world of malaria and thus enlarges populations that their habitats can't sustain even now.

    On the other hand, and this should bring hope, the lifting from subsistence and poverty in the developing world is remarkable, one might say revolutionary. So, maybe getting everybody connected is apace with getting them better.

    Long FB.
    Aug 27, 2015. 08:56 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook unveils human-supported Siri/Google Now alternative called M [View news story]
    Catty? Ohhhh-kay.

    Though there was a bit of snark in the last paragraph, you again succumb to your habit of putting words in people's mouth to shoot them down -- the old strawman. I'm not claiming FB is infallible. Of course FB is fallible, and we can point to various missteps. But there are degrees of fallibility, and I submit there is far less fallibility in Zuckerberg & Co. than in you or monfrere or me.

    The reason I don't respond point-by-point is that being a bull or a bear about FB is religion. Of course, I'm not saying the original judgment to be long or short wasn't rational, but once we stake a position, we defend it, marshaliing the facts to validate our position until the future proves us right or wrong.

    I believe FB has tremendous possibilities and that management know what they're doing. You do not believe one or both of these propositions. We're not going to dissuade each other, because we apparently desire opposite outcomes. Though I think you've said your position is long FB. Devil's advocate, then?

    My argument for FB is purely empirical. One can argue about the metrics -- revenue growth, user growth, GAAP, non-GAAP, etc. etc. One can say 1 billion users in one day means nothing. Or that FB with its acquisitions has not future-proofed itself. But here's the thing, from the investor's angle: With every bit of news about FB, every plateau in its share level becomes a new baseline. The recent flash crash had nothing to do with fundamentals. On Black Monday, Tim Cook was telling Cramer iPhone sales in China are great, and Facebook was having its first billion-user day. So, where is the correction to "a more realistic level" you bears have been waiting for? Well, FB is quickly closing in on its pre-crash levels, maybe surpass them. In my opinion that is the realistic level.

    It's past five out here, so time for a well-deserved 'rita. Cheers!
    Aug 27, 2015. 08:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook unveils human-supported Siri/Google Now alternative called M [View news story]
    +1 Thanks for the news. Share the love!
    Aug 27, 2015. 07:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook unveils human-supported Siri/Google Now alternative called M [View news story]
    In the end he had two IDs, which is a big no-no, so he may have got an IP ban. Just a guess. Hey, maybe he walks among us still.
    . . . like the un-dead.

    Actually, I don't think he did personal attacks -- other than to inform us how benighted we are -- but he sure incited them!

    Maybe his agenda was based on the theory that there's enough traffic here to influence trading. That's pretty far-fetched, but the notion that he was on a mission to save us from ourselves is equally far-fetched.

    Since he was so voluble, it was curious he never wrote an article. I was going to ask him about that. His stuff did make sense in a crude way, but of course articles require vetting, and one of the beefs about bjnflicks was that his were just a laundry list of assertions without any evidence, like, "Tim Cook is gonna kill Facebook by blocking data mining, just you wait" and "It's almost like Zuckerberg is running a Ponzi scheme."

    If this were a political forum -- and one of the wonders of SA is the self-restraint of the users here in that regard -- then bjnflicks would be ranting about black helicopters, Obama's FEMA army and the Illuminati. Nothing personal against bjnflicks, but the obsessive tone of his posts evoked that stuff.

    Matter of fact, one wonders why monfrere doesn't write an article to state his definitive bear case formally and completely. Better yet, he should make himself available to Facebook, Inc. He seems to think he can run the place better than they. One admirable thing about the Facebook folks is their willingness to think outside the box, so I'm sure if monfrere has something that would help them mend the error of their ways, then doubtless they would eagerly attend.
    Aug 27, 2015. 06:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Risks To Facebook's Dominance [View article]
    I think you misread. "Every political candidate will spend billions of dollars in ads" is a global statement. Not just here but everywhere there are elections, worldwide, there will be political ads through social networks, and the dominant social network is Facebook.

    As for just the U.S., the PACS, Super PACS and party election committees have already expended $847 million for federal elections alone, with over a year to the elections. And that doesn't include dark (unregistered) money -- 501(c)(4), corporations, LLCs, individuals. One estimate for the 2016 presidential election is $5 billion. The Koch brothers alone plan to spend $889 million.

    I agree with Andrew. Campaign ad budgets will be a huge bonanza for social media. And not just periodically, because election campaigns are going on all the time around the world.
    Aug 27, 2015. 05:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: Breaking News Mobile App Is A Great Expansion Product [View article]
    Selling calls on stock you own is a conservative way to get income off a stock with no dividends, but there are a couple of catches --

    1. Your stock may be called away if the option you sold is exercised. If you want a long-term gain, then this may mean a premature exit (yes, i know what that sounds like) with tax consequences. Selling covered calls are good for a stock with not much movement. FB has a habit of stalling, then spurting ahead. Timing those calls is important.

    2. If the stock goes up, then you can avoid getting called away by rolling your calls. The problem here is that you may not be making any money. What you have done by rolling is to raise the striking price of the call you sell, so that, for example, if you sold a call that would be called at 95 plus the price of the call, and the stock goes up, you would have to take a loss to close that position. Hopefully, you can then sell, say, a 105 call at a later date that would cover the loss of your old call while giving you 10 more points gain on the stock. This is possible, because the old call depreciated faster than the new call because its expiration date was closer. Thus, call sellers will wait until shortly before expiration before rolling up and ahead.

    All this may sound abstruse, but the basic point is that selling covered calls is considered a conservative strategy. It's a kind of hedge. It makes you a little money, offers a bit of downside protection, but limits the upside.

    By the way, FB is doing admirably today, managing to stay above water, so far, on a generally down market day.
    Aug 19, 2015. 02:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: Great Company But A Tricky Valuation [View article]
    Good points about share-based compensation.

    "It can cause companies to buy back stock based on dilution concerns without regard as to whether the shares are undervalued or overvalued."

    In a detailed SA article about buybacks:

    "It doesn't suffice to say that repurchases are being made to offset the dilution from stock issuances or simply because a company has excess cash. Continuing shareholders are hurt unless shares are purchased below intrinsic value."
    Aug 17, 2015. 02:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Declining Return On Equity Can't Keep Facebook's Stock From Rising [View article]
    Don't know where you got that one-third of teens use Snapchat, but as of September-March, for 13-17 year-olds, 71% use Facebook, 52% use Instagram and 41% use Snapchat. 71% use more than one. Of those, 41% say they use Facebook most often, 20% Instagram, 11% Snapchat. Of the 22% who use only one, 63% use Facebook, 13% Instagram, 3% Snapchat.
    Aug 16, 2015. 04:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment