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Jack Rice  

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  • It Was Wrong To Sell Facebook - Cramer's Mad Money (7/30/15) [View article]
    Re the FB selloff, first, this is classic FB post-earnings behavior. Second, about morons: the trading market, as opposed to the buy-and-hold market, operates on second-guessing. If all the traders think FB will drop unless it blows away the estimates, then they sell when it doesn't blow away estimates, because they think everybody else will sell, not because of the merits. That is, if the individual trader thinks the aggregate traders are morons, then he will sell, thus creating the sell market.

    Does that make traders morons? Not if they end up in the black.
    Aug 1, 2015. 02:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook shows off 'Aquila' Internet drone [View news story]
    Zuck is on a mission to connect the rest of the world to the Internet, like Elon is on a mission is to make every car electric. We can debate their respective merits, but there they are.

    Drones and may be very worthwhile as vision thing, but from a commercial standpoint FB is getting way ahead of itself. FB has yet to prove it can monetize the connected world profitably. Let's see about that, first.
    Aug 1, 2015. 12:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook's 'Spending Problem' Is Overblown: Ignore Analysts, Study Historical Comparisons [View article]
    Even with the spending, FB beat estimates. FB's drop is like Lois Lane's learning Clark Kent is Batman and not Superman. Ridiculous, but understandable. This Q2 result and response is typical. FB's gains are not on the quarter but IN the quarter.

    Zuck -- Drones in Space! -- wants global Internet access. His vision is tantamount to the capitalist wet dream of making consumers of the whole world. This is a big vision. Can FB do it?

    Market cap is about belief. A few guys believed in a cola with coca. Of course, some believe monetizing social media is a chimera. We'll see.
    Jul 31, 2015. 09:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook down 2.4% after Q2 beat; MAUs rise to 1.49B [View news story]
    Revenue growth would have been a smart 55% Y/Y if not for F/X, which begs the question, posed by texasyankee, of where the hell was the hedging? It's not like this has been a surprise, and with the Fed rate hike on the horizon F/X headwinds can only get worse.
    Jul 29, 2015. 08:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: Buy Ahead Of Earnings [View article]
    Or it will "disappoint" -- not blow away the estimates -- in which case, time to add position on the drop. Either way it's good, if you have some cash.
    Jul 28, 2015. 07:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: Buy Ahead Of Earnings [View article]
    They don't get "the average chinese citizen," so Chinese users are not part of the equation (dark users can't be counted). So, nothing to lose there. And though Chinese advertisers may have a presence on FB, it's not a significant one. So, nothing to lose there, either. Neither of these should make an impact y-y or q-q.
    Jul 27, 2015. 03:52 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: Buy Ahead Of Earnings [View article]
    There used to be lots of bearish talk about China's being closed to FB. Well, since, as a result, FB does not include China in its coverage and therefore in its market, what's happening now should not directly affect its business. Of course FB is subject to the tidal forces of the general market, which is still reacting to China's woes. Today's sell-off is profit taking, as traders -- as opposed to investors -- get cold feet ahead of earnings.
    Jul 27, 2015. 01:52 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: A Note Of Caution [View article]
    And what's this about?

    There's no "problem" at all. College is great. I graduated and glad I did, and I've never worked for anybody, except my profs. (Like Musk, I dropped out of grad school.) I'm accounting for the fact that the digital revolution has been led by dropouts: Bill Gates, Larry Ellison, Steve Jobs, Zuckerberg. Of course, you can cherry-pick counter-examples to bolster your carping.

    College education is great for CEOs, not as great for entrepreneurs. Can you just give it a rest?
    Jul 25, 2015. 01:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: A Note Of Caution [View article]
    FB does not sell advertising but advertising space. Big difference. For example, I'm in the billboard business. I don't advertise, I sell space for the advertiser. I provide exposure and traffic to benefit the advertiser. After that, how effective the ads are is up to the advertiser. FB is the same. They provide exposure and traffic to benefit advertisers. After that, how effective the ads are is up to the advertiser. Of course, FB can help in targeting ads, which is what the much debated data mining is about. But like all media they are scrupulous about staying away from advertising strategies and content, because media are not in the advertising business. Of course media and advertising are symbiotic, but they are not the same.
    Jul 25, 2015. 12:26 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Is Still A Buy Going Into Earnings [View article]
    Couldn't care less if Zuckerberg couldn't care less about the investors. All I care about is whether he and his team care about FB. This is how Jeff Bezos operates, and for years he had investors pulling out their hair in frustration. I jumped that ship, to my regret. Well, Jeff had his own roadmap and followed it, just a s Zuck has his, and I ain't gonna jump this ship.
    Jul 24, 2015. 08:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: A Note Of Caution [View article]
    Afraid your comment displays a lack of understanding of what Facebook is and what today's advertising business is -- in fact, a lack of understanding of the digital epoch.

    First, FB is NOT an advertising business. FB does not create advertising content or mount advertising campaigns. Second, your understanding of advertising expense is based on a model that's been obsolete for decades. What was true for your archaic media of TV, radio and newspapers no longer applies. The very nature of the internet means that as coverage -- not sure what you mean by "demand" -- increases, costs do NOT increase. Yes, FB must invest in infrastructure, such as its massive new data center in Fort Worth. But once infrastructure is in place, operating expenses remain constant. In fact, the possibility to reach 1.4 billion people cost-effectively, which FB offers, is unprecedented.

    Both your premises are false, so your conclusion is untenable.
    Jul 24, 2015. 07:42 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: A Note Of Caution [View article]
    Someone once said, college teaches you how to work for someone else.

    About puts, I did well shorting and rolling way-out-of-the-money puts during TSLA's run-up last year. If you're bullish, then selling way-out-of-the-money puts seems a great way to make money during a run-up while limiting risk to buying in at a nice entry point. Of course you want nice premiums, so you have to shop around.
    Jul 24, 2015. 03:49 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Has Tough Questions To Answer Surrounding Shoppable Pages And Payments [View article]
    It's a big piece of cake because amongst those 1.4 billion are surely thousands within your market reach, local or regional, not foreign. FB's service to its customers is to help you effectively target that market, so you can sell more flowers, pets, bicycles, books, drugs, you name it. This could be a boon to shops selling not much locally but who can figure out the logistics of selling beyond, i.e. online business. Whether a shop on the high street has the acumen to meet the added demand is another question.
    Jul 24, 2015. 01:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: A Note Of Caution [View article]
    Oh, come on, he just said 300% so far. That would imply he bought it a around 30. 60 points. Another 60 points would be a 67% gain. Where does he say he expects another 300% gain? And what's with "in a year"? He's not claiming that either. There you two go, building strawmen.
    Jul 24, 2015. 12:30 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: A Note Of Caution [View article]
    The market doesn't care if FB is "priced to perfection". A positive earnings/revenue surprise, and the stock will pop; negative surprise, and it will drop. No surprise, and it will continue its customary intra-quarterly behavior, of profit taking following earnings and incremental gains on news. And FB will again be priced to perfection.
    Jul 24, 2015. 12:13 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment