Comments on Jack Wx's articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/jack-wx/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/139517-revisiting-ingersoll-rand-positioned-for-excellence?source=feed#comment-519117 519117 Wed, 27 May 2009 03:59:02 -0400
The best to your investing.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/135998-visa-and-mastercard-likely-to-continue-growth-trend?source=feed#comment-494230 494230 Thu, 07 May 2009 14:12:23 -0400
The U.S. is not important in the credit card industry. It is a mature market. So while payments volume has decreased (and this won't be forever anyway) transactions have increased overall thanks to debit. Transactions matter more to V and MA than payments volume.

Based on expected growth rates I would still say V and MA are cheap.

Another advantage for Visa is ZillionTV. Won't be out for a couple of years, but it has the potential to be a hot tech item. Perhaps when we are in a recovery for certain and beginning the next bull. Could be another boost to already high expected growth.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133228-railroad-companies-good-better-best?source=feed#comment-485552 485552 Fri, 01 May 2009 11:03:14 -0400
1.) Passenger transport is a overall loss to frieght railroads. One major reason all of them abandoned hauling people in the late 50's and early 60's. Routing passenger traffic on the same lines that move frieght creates lots of conflicts and cuts into the revenue potential of the lines. Commuter rail on dedicated routes in densely populated areas makes sense, but I don't expect to see a "Super-Amtrak" anytime soon. All of the frieght roads will avoid it if possible. (See CSX's response to giving up or sharing it's route across Florida for a light rail proposal.)

2.) PBR coal is important and will no doubt give BNI an advantage. But blending it with Appalachian coal is what power plant operators want, so NSC still has a lot of coal to haul too (best BTU output with a pollution level currently acceptable to the EPA.) NSC got the better end of the deal when ConRail was split between them and CSX.

3.) Eastern roads still have a lot of customers to serve and a container loaded in California can easily get unloaded in Florida with no fuss, and no muss. Handed off from one carrier to the next. The railroads have got intermodal frieght down pat. The density of the eastern roads cuts the size of their physical plant, which works in their favor.

So... for me the best plan is to have positions in both an eastern and a western road. NSC & BNI work for me.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133228-railroad-companies-good-better-best?source=feed#comment-484421 484421 Thu, 30 Apr 2009 14:13:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/133228-railroad-companies-good-better-best?source=feed#comment-481201 481201 Tue, 28 Apr 2009 13:19:59 -0400
My only concern with BNI is that the market cap is about $22 B and they don't have free cash flow of much more than $1 B. That is a 5% free cash flow yield.

Do you think much of this relates to Cap-Ex expansion that will slow down in the future. Or is the heavy cap-ex a recurring item.

It seems like I can find other businesses with higher cash flow yields. All that being said, it is a Buffett favorite, and the demographics and secular nature of this industry are strong.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133228-railroad-companies-good-better-best?source=feed#comment-481052 481052 Tue, 28 Apr 2009 12:19:38 -0400 Thanks for the informative article. TCI hedge fund just jumped out of CSX. One wonders why- if not only for the ability to move to other investments that have the potential to move more/faster... In any case, I'm sure few will dispute Mr. Buffet's picks over the long haul...Pun intended... BNI is the market leader with UNP the next best----but---- That little ol' R&R KSU- Sure think to over look this guy is a missed opportunity. It tends to move in share price faster in either direction. That volatility makes for great plays in the short terms and at 15.00 is undervalued compared to it's bretheren.
KSU makes plenty of it's revenue on intermodal between the east and west, totes ALL energy sources to and from the Gulf and is poised to take great advantage from the Port of Lazaro Cardenas as it will probably continue to gain freight away from South Cali. That won't change until something is done about the Unions at the American ports! I've played KSU since before they spun off Janus Funds and it's STILL my favorite. Would sure like to see some other opinions on KSU....
Thanks,

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133228-railroad-companies-good-better-best?source=feed#comment-480328 480328 Tue, 28 Apr 2009 01:19:02 -0400
A couple of comments on the article: BNI and UNP have a huge advantage with Powder River coal but don't have a particular edge over each other. Look for the possibility of exporting coal to China, they've expressed interest but there isn't real infrastructure to handle the business now. International intermodal can be expected to rise and fall directly with the economy. Domestic intermodal as a long term trend is moving to a "hub and spoke" system where rail will handle shipments over 500 miles and trucks will handle from major intermodal terminals. Agriculture will continue to grow due to increased exports. Ethanol could be great or could fizzle out, that will be a completely political issue. Industrial products will also rise and fall with the broader economy. Passneger rail is a long way from being a big part of the business, if it ever will be.

Long term there is a lot of potential and little downside simply because it would be impossible for trucks to handle the tonnages that rails move. Also look for technology to continue to improve efficiency and lower costs.

Finally, the big elephant in the room is re-regulation. Since the industry was deregulated in the early 80's efficiency and cost to the customer have improved drastically but with the current government climate who knows if Congress or the Administration will notice. Maybe once we're done socializing the financials and the auto industry we'll turn to wrecking healthy companies as well...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133228-railroad-companies-good-better-best?source=feed#comment-480162 480162 Mon, 27 Apr 2009 20:58:44 -0400
It has been an essential link in the coal chain between mines, rail and end user for more than 35 years. Shipments regularly go to about 24 countries and bring $2 billion or more of wealth each year to Canada.

In 2005, Westshore celebrated its 35th anniversary and remains the busiest coal export terminal in all of North America.

www.westshore.com/]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133228-railroad-companies-good-better-best?source=feed#comment-480128 480128 500 miles). Over time, train service speed and reliability has improved, displacing trucks. This can be expected to continue. - As one poster correctly points out both BNI and UNP have excellent access to PRB coal. I don't belive there is a true advantage of one over another, but the advantage over the eastern rails is real. - For those who are asking about passenger rail... keep dreaming, the economics just doesn't work very well, except for shortish trips between congested urban centers (e.g. the NE corridor) where time "to and through" the airport makes up the majority of the travel time. Think about it this way: People's time is valuable; it makes more sense to move people by the fastest means possible (e.g. airplanes) while letting lower value stuff move by slower means such as trains. ]]> Mon, 27 Apr 2009 20:13:39 -0400
A couple minor points:

- The long term battle between trucks and train has gone something like this: Trucks are faster and more reliable, Trains (or intermodal services) are cheaper, particularly for longer hauls. (>500 miles). Over time, train service speed and reliability has improved, displacing trucks. This can be expected to continue.

- As one poster correctly points out both BNI and UNP have excellent access to PRB coal. I don't belive there is a true advantage of one over another, but the advantage over the eastern rails is real.

- For those who are asking about passenger rail... keep dreaming, the economics just doesn't work very well, except for shortish trips between congested urban centers (e.g. the NE corridor) where time "to and through" the airport makes up the majority of the travel time. Think about it this way: People's time is valuable; it makes more sense to move people by the fastest means possible (e.g. airplanes) while letting lower value stuff move by slower means such as trains.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133228-railroad-companies-good-better-best?source=feed#comment-479785 479785 Mon, 27 Apr 2009 17:14:52 -0400
1. I completely agree with point #1. As peak oil approaches, fuel costs will rise and rails will look wonderful compared with trucks and planes.

2. The article focuses on freight rail. However, passenger rail will be the big money maker at some point - unless the government kills it. If this is the case, the Eastern rails will have a clear advantage because of the higher population density.

3. If you look at the long term chart of the six major rails, starting int 1980, you will see that CNI has the best return. It currently has the highest ROI and profit margins. It is also the most expensive. It is an Eastern rail with the inclusion of the old Illinois Central.
the next best returns are the NSC and the CSX. these are both Eastern. BNI leads UNP and CP. UNP is the worst.

Perhaps UNP is laggard because of the southern pacific acquisiton?

4. CNI and BNI are currently the most expensive. CSX was extremely expensive but has recently declined. CP is cheap and sells practically at book value.

5. If you look just a geography you might see that the Eastern ones have an advantage in terms of density and less maintenance. Shorter distances between points means less maintenance. Also fewer mountains to go up and down - saving on fuel costs.

6. Eventually, I see the government taking the rails back over again when they recover. The US government loves to destroy successful industries (i.e., rail - decades ago, auto - in the 1950's and 1960's, oil - currently, big Pharma) and reward inefficient ones (i.e., banks and autos currently).



]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133228-railroad-companies-good-better-best?source=feed#comment-479772 479772 Mon, 27 Apr 2009 17:03:03 -0400
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133228-railroad-companies-good-better-best?source=feed#comment-479732 479732 Mon, 27 Apr 2009 16:44:51 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133228-railroad-companies-good-better-best?source=feed#comment-479470 479470 Mon, 27 Apr 2009 13:33:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/133228-railroad-companies-good-better-best?source=feed#comment-479385 479385 Mon, 27 Apr 2009 12:55:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/133228-railroad-companies-good-better-best?source=feed#comment-479128 479128 Mon, 27 Apr 2009 11:01:10 -0400 www.uprr.com/customers..., and compare this with BNI's list at www.bnsf.com/markets/c....

In addition, both BNI and UNP serve other coal origins outside the PRB. In 2008, BNI handled 2.5 million carloads of coal, generating almost $4 billion in revenue. In the same year, UNP handled 2.35 million carloads in its "energy" category, which is almost all coal, generating $3.8 billion in revenue. The two railroads are, in fact, very closely matched in the western coal market.

The author also favors BNI and UNP over CSX and NSC because of their proximity to China. This has been a big advantage for both railroads over the past decade but is becoming less so in today's changing global trade environment. Shipping lines have begun to shift some of their Asia-U.S. routes to the east coast over the past five years. NSC executives have recently said that about 50% of their container business now comes in through east coast ports, as opposed to only 20% a few years ago. The port situation on the west coast has changed, too, with the opening of modern container facilities at Prince Rupert, B.C. (served by Canadian National [CNI]) and Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico (served by Kansas City Southern [KSU]). ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133228-railroad-companies-good-better-best?source=feed#comment-479051 479051 Mon, 27 Apr 2009 10:30:03 -0400
How long before we have significant increase in passenger trains?


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133228-railroad-companies-good-better-best?source=feed#comment-478844 478844 Mon, 27 Apr 2009 08:53:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/133228-railroad-companies-good-better-best?source=feed#comment-478808 478808 Mon, 27 Apr 2009 08:38:55 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/131031-consumer-credit-stocks-and-mastercard-long-term-risks?source=feed#comment-465318 465318 Thu, 16 Apr 2009 12:25:24 -0400
In order to get a 2% rebate, Visa charges the merchant 3.5% and then the mechant in turn marks up his goods to help cover the credit fee expenses.

Rebate and gift cards are ways of making the cosumer spend insted of deposit money into savings, plus the card is used creating another transaction over the Visa network.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131031-consumer-credit-stocks-and-mastercard-long-term-risks?source=feed#comment-465303 465303 Thu, 16 Apr 2009 12:20:53 -0400
However, that being the case I beleve that either Visa or MA will be the next Core Blue Chip stock maybe replacing GM in the DOW 30. Both compaines have an uncanny way of growing earnings, even when revenue growth slows to single digits.

Lastly, I believe Visa and especially MA should be viewed as Tech companies rather than fianancials; MA is more like a Goolge than a Citigroup.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131031-consumer-credit-stocks-and-mastercard-long-term-risks?source=feed#comment-465179 465179 Thu, 16 Apr 2009 11:31:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/131031-consumer-credit-stocks-and-mastercard-long-term-risks?source=feed#comment-464596 464596 Wed, 15 Apr 2009 23:55:52 -0400
A question about store cards though, aren't those being financed by someone other than that merchant. Looking at my GAP store card, it says it is financed by GE Money Bank! (something I think we'll see less of) I assumed that most other store cards were set up the same way?

On a personal note to 3) the consumer:
I feel that I am forced to use my Visa credit card in order to get the rebate. I'd much rather everything just cost 2% less and use my check card or cash.


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128611-microsoft-vs-apple-monopolist-vs-innovator?source=feed#comment-450540 450540 it's not just that Apple consumers are better educated (though by > % as a group, they are) or friendlier...hard to gauge that except > that the staff in the Apple stores are VERY warm and friendly...and > smart. > But Apple always wrote very tight code making for fewer holes for > the hacker to explore. probably because Microsoft had such a big > platform to write for, all their programs are bloated and messy, > even the ones that work very well. This makes it easier to hack. > > > There is another difference...the attitude at Apple...they actually > really like their customers and want to keep them happy. > I've used the big King of Prussia Mall Apple store since it's first > day and have never encountered a surly, crabby or arrogant staff > person...not in sales or tech. Obviously there are no perfect people > on the planet, so there must be some working for Apple... but as > much as Apple was exclusive about it's OS, it has always been inclusive > about it's customers and users. To Apple, if you use their products, > there's no 'them and us'...it's just 'us'. > > It's hard to explain this, but you feel it. When my PC friend asked > me to take her to the Apple store for her first iPod, she was so > astonished at the level of service. When we left she said 'i LOVE > it in there!'. Apple just knows how to do it better than anyone else > which explains why they have the most profitable retail space per > square foot in the country. > Long APPL]]> Fri, 03 Apr 2009 08:39:35 -0400



On Mar 31 08:56 AM mollytjm wrote:

> it's not just that Apple consumers are better educated (though by
> % as a group, they are) or friendlier...hard to gauge that except
> that the staff in the Apple stores are VERY warm and friendly...and
> smart.
> But Apple always wrote very tight code making for fewer holes for
> the hacker to explore. probably because Microsoft had such a big
> platform to write for, all their programs are bloated and messy,
> even the ones that work very well. This makes it easier to hack.
>
>
> There is another difference...the attitude at Apple...they actually
> really like their customers and want to keep them happy.
> I've used the big King of Prussia Mall Apple store since it's first
> day and have never encountered a surly, crabby or arrogant staff
> person...not in sales or tech. Obviously there are no perfect people
> on the planet, so there must be some working for Apple... but as
> much as Apple was exclusive about it's OS, it has always been inclusive
> about it's customers and users. To Apple, if you use their products,
> there's no 'them and us'...it's just 'us'.
>
> It's hard to explain this, but you feel it. When my PC friend asked
> me to take her to the Apple store for her first iPod, she was so
> astonished at the level of service. When we left she said 'i LOVE
> it in there!'. Apple just knows how to do it better than anyone else
> which explains why they have the most profitable retail space per
> square foot in the country.
> Long APPL]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128611-microsoft-vs-apple-monopolist-vs-innovator?source=feed#comment-448743 448743 Wed, 01 Apr 2009 23:42:12 -0400
But because of their unreasonable prices and lack of compatibility with many of my favorite software programs, I have no choice but to use Windows.

If you're a web developer, trying to get work done on a Mac is just not as efficient, because PC has such better tools available (and many of them for free).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128611-microsoft-vs-apple-monopolist-vs-innovator?source=feed#comment-448738 448738 Wed, 01 Apr 2009 23:39:20 -0400
Not only are they overpriced, but most of the best open-source software is written for PC only.

Macs only have about 10% of the software and hardware options of a PC.

If you want something pretty, get a Mac. If you want the best selection of hardware and software that is easily installed, Vista, with all its flaws, still beats the hell out of Mac.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128611-microsoft-vs-apple-monopolist-vs-innovator?source=feed#comment-448567 448567 Wed, 01 Apr 2009 19:15:00 -0400
You guys are all bought into APPL hype, a typical American phenomenon of idol and brand worship.

I believe both MSFT and APPL brings values, but to say that APPL is more important and valuable than MSFT, is quite stupid.

I read statements like the workers at APPL store are very nice and courteous. Wait a minute! what does that have to do with anything here.

I use APPL iPhone and I believe APPL is as monopolistic as MSFT. Try even putting a freeware at APPL iStore, APPL is very anal about their products and how one can use it. It like dictating, and personally, I believe APPL is a ripp off.

But, ain't American love folks who ripp them off?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128611-microsoft-vs-apple-monopolist-vs-innovator?source=feed#comment-448410 448410 Wed, 01 Apr 2009 16:26:50 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/128611-microsoft-vs-apple-monopolist-vs-innovator?source=feed#comment-447938 447938 The "Apple Tax" is real. I bought a Toshiba Tecra 12/1/08, and love > it. Comparable mac hardware cost twice as much at the time - and > didn't have a fingerprint reader (which I use all the time) or even > enough USB ports. > > The idea that Macs are more secure is a myth, happily reinforced > by Apple's mendacious "I'm a Mac, I'm a PC" ads. Search for the name > "Charlie Miller" and see what he has to say about the Macs alleged > security - this man knows what he's talking about.]]> Wed, 01 Apr 2009 11:31:19 -0400
Additionally, Charlie is an ex-CSA security expert, that spent various parts of a year, in his spare time to develop a "hack" for the contest. The "hack" required the user to visit a prepared malicious website, click on the link, download & install the payload, which requires the user to input his user name and password.

As Mr. Miller also emphasized, ALL computers can be hacked. But their is no commercial value in doing so, especially for the Mac. What plagues the Windows world of regular users, is not security "hacks", but rather self-loading, self perpetuating, and transferable executables called "viruses", "worms", & "botnets", something that Mac users don't have trouble with, nor will they, as Charlie has pointed out with his own words.

On Mar 31 01:04 PM Astrochimp wrote:

> The "Apple Tax" is real. I bought a Toshiba Tecra 12/1/08, and love
> it. Comparable mac hardware cost twice as much at the time - and
> didn't have a fingerprint reader (which I use all the time) or even
> enough USB ports.
>
> The idea that Macs are more secure is a myth, happily reinforced
> by Apple's mendacious "I'm a Mac, I'm a PC" ads. Search for the name
> "Charlie Miller" and see what he has to say about the Macs alleged
> security - this man knows what he's talking about.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128611-microsoft-vs-apple-monopolist-vs-innovator?source=feed#comment-447778 447778 Wed, 01 Apr 2009 09:32:40 -0400
You'll want to recheck who your comment is aimed at. I said nothing about motherboards, video cards, or any such thing.

If gaming is your thing, then your dream gaming rig will certainly be something custom made, and not anything off-the-shelf from Dell or Apple or anyone. Build that custom machine! And you might as well top it off with a gaming OS, Windows.

Those of us wanting computers for business or other professional pursuits will often do better with a solid UNIX-based OS - and, for maximum software flexibility, on top of hardware able to run any OS. That might make for the ultimate professional machine, if not the ultimate gaming machine.

Why, it's almost as if different products were ideal for different people! Imagine that!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128611-microsoft-vs-apple-monopolist-vs-innovator?source=feed#comment-447642 447642 Wed, 01 Apr 2009 08:04:03 -0400