Jack Yetiv

Solar Cell Manufacturers Have Room to Grow

I agree with the thesis completely--in fact, I have made the same thesis on these virtual pages in previous articles.

However, I think the calculations are incorrect in that you looked at whole-world energy production, and you have to keep in mind that only a small part of the world is enjoying subsidies, so I think the percentages go up ten-fold from maybe tenths of a percent to 1-2%.

Nevertheless, that still leaves a lot of room to grow.

The other aspect you didn't really take into account is that in some (1) very sunny places that (2) worry about environmental costs of fossil-fuel-generated power, solar is already at parity WITHOUT subsidy. See my article on this topic for further details.

The number of places where this will be true will increase as (1) more people insist that environmental costs be considered, (2) as fossil fuel costs increase, and (3) as PV costs decrease.

This will spur demand far more than subsidies ever could, therefore potentiating your thesis.

Jack