Jack Yetiv

Has Oil Production Reached a 'De Facto' Peak?

Excellent article, as always.

I would call it "Economic Peak", as opposed to Hubbert's "Geologic Peak."

I call it Economic Peak because I believe much of the "hoarding" or lacl of production is not due to violence or incompetence but rather due to deliberate decisions by the NOC's to simply not produce more.

Best example is the statement from the Saudi's saying exactly that ("we're going to leave the oil in the ground for future generations.")

I believe even some of the "incompetence" may well be due to a deliberate decision to not sell "cheap" oil today at $130 if $200 can be gotten in 2 or 3 or 4 years from now, eg, Chavez in Venezuela, Libya in old days. As Libya demonstrates, however, these decisions can sometimes be reversed.

Therefore, I believe much of your "De Facto Peak" is due to deliberate economic decisions by sovereign states to forego production now in favor of future [production.

Jack