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What oil bears seem to miss repeatedly is that oil is NOT a free market. Even if peak oil is hogwash, there is a group of oil producers that control almost 50% of global production that have agendas that are at least partially driven by factors other than economics. I refer, of course, to OPEC.
Jul 17 20:06 pm
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All Comments by Jack Yetiv »Confirmatory Bias and Oil Investing [View article]
Due to OPEC, downside risk for the oil bulls is rather limited, while upside is not so.
PREDICTION:
If oil approaches $105-110 (which I think is quite unlikely), watch Saudi Arabia rescind its recently-announced 200K bpd of extra production that began this month. And if oil goes below $100 (which I consider extremely unlikely), watch Saudi Arabia reverse the full 500K production increase between May's and July's increases.
Jack Yetiv