Maybe all of you are right. Maybe we'll hang around 12,000 (or whatever index you like) in a trading range for a fair bit of time.
There are persuasive arguments that financials and housing still have hundreds of billions of dollars of "air" to be let out of them, and probably, the retails aren't gonna do so hot in 2008.
On the other hand, nobody believes the rest of ther world is in danger of a negative GDP, and indeed, a fair number of countries will continue to grow robustly in 2008 and beyond. Since many US companies get a fair %age of their profits abroad, maybe this will compensate for the financials (witness GE earnings) and we'll "muddle-through" for the next year.
7 Reasons March Was Not the Bottom [View article]
There are persuasive arguments that financials and housing still have hundreds of billions of dollars of "air" to be let out of them, and probably, the retails aren't gonna do so hot in 2008.
On the other hand, nobody believes the rest of ther world is in danger of a negative GDP, and indeed, a fair number of countries will continue to grow robustly in 2008 and beyond. Since many US companies get a fair %age of their profits abroad, maybe this will compensate for the financials (witness GE earnings) and we'll "muddle-through" for the next year.
Just a thought. No crystall ball.
Jack