Jack Yetiv

As Intel Joins the Solar Sector, Is There Room for Everyone?

Mark, the answer to your question--whether there is enough room--all depends on whether solar reaches grid parity in average sun locations, which will depend on nat gas/coal prices staying up and carbon taxes coming in, as well as cost of solar coming down.

Since I believe that nat gas and coal WILL remain high (if not go higher) and since I believe we are not far from having to start to pay for CO2 release, I believe average sun locations will reach grid parity within 2-3 years.

Once that happens, I believe demand will increase at a compounded annual rate of well over 100%, and yes, there will be room for at least the next few years.

Beyond a "few years," it's a wild guessing game.

Jack

Cleantech "Power 10" Ranking (Vol. I)

Problems with wind versus solar:

(1) I guarantee you that wind towers and turbines will be more expensive to build in 5 years from now (and even 1 year from now, probably, unless commodities really crash). On the other hand, I also guarantee that solar will be HALF its present cost in 5 years.

(2) Wind requires (in most cases) significant transmission and distribution facilities (NIMBY as to big turbines where people can see them), whereas solar can be invisibly installed in a distributed fashion on flattish rooftops on commercial buildings (as Southern California Edison announced on March 27). This will get solar to parity with wind probably within two years.

(3) In many places, solar helps balance the load because when the sun is hottest and causing the most air-conditioning load--it is also generating the most power. In most places, this is not true for wind.

In summary, solar is better than wind in every way but one--cost.

But the cost differences will evaporate by 2010.

Of course, certain places have a great wind resource and a poor solar one. In those places, wind will continue to be cheaper than solar for some time to come, and there is such great need for renewably-generated electricity that both solar and wind will grow tremendously in the next decade.

But in most places, I predict that within 2-3 years, given increasing cost of wind and decreasing cost of solar, solar will offer the price advantage.

Jack Yetiv