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  • Diedrich Coffee: A Web of Misrepresentations [View article]
    I was very right about the desire of PEETs to move into K-Cups (that was the entire rational for the acquisition). I was very wrong on how they'd get there. I was short, which I disclosed, and I lost a lot of money yesterday, sadly, as there was no way I though PEET would give away 1/3 of their enterprise to buy their way into the K-Cup market. I was wrong.
    Nov 4 08:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Diedrich Coffee: A Web of Misrepresentations [View article]
    To the best of my knowledge the Starbucks relationship is not exclusive with kraft. While clearly viewing Keurig as a threat (and Senseo), there is nothing I know of that would keep them from joining Keurig if a license was granted


    On Oct 29 01:17 PM fasttriguy wrote:

    > Your comment about Starbucks is absolutely inaccurate and not well-researched;
    > Starbucks packaged coffee is distributed by Kraft, which owns the
    > Tassimo pod system and contracts the hardware manufacturing with
    > Bosch. It
    Oct 29 02:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Diedrich Coffee: A Web of Misrepresentations [View article]
    i know - tough at the discount brokers. best way is to have an account with a bulge bracket or another broker that has access to better short inventory. DDRX is somewhat tight, but you can definitely borrow it.
    Oct 29 12:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CACC: Recent Events Add to the Short Thesis [View article]
    Lance,
    Your suggestion is very interesting. I think that requiring (in good faith) an author to disclose his/her position is fundamental to helping readers balance an author's natural subjectivity with the inevitable other side of the argument. Sites like Seeking Alpha are fantastic because they allow investors to share their thoughts and work with the investment community. Further, these sites provide a forum for investors to present well articulated, factually-driven, negative views on stocks and sectors. Cautious investment opinions can be very helpful in highlighting investment dangers (despite the stigma associated with short selling). Feedback and comments to the author make the process even more helpful for the entire community.

    However, asking authors to disclose the size of their positions takes the "intent" behind asking an author to disclose their position, to a whole new level. I also would argue that a position size is not always consistent with conviction levels, which can lead to an outcome that could actually be misleading. For example, some positions can be sized based upon daily volumes, upon sector allocations, upon strategy (quant funds may have 1000's of positions, whereas concentrated value deep value funds, may only have 10 positions), etc. Your suggestion is very interesting and I’m sure would provoke a wide variety of opinions.
    Jul 31 11:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CACC: An Ideal Play on the Consumer, Auto, and Credit Markets [View article]
    wes- ACF was far more widely held and recognized revs based on typical portfolio accounting whereas CACC uses a level yield basis, which is IRR driven. Leaves A LOT to the imagination and A LOT of discretion. It is unfathomable that CACC has avoided the once-in-a-decade carnage of its comp group. Seems like it is a matter of time before their accounting catches up with them.
    Jul 9 03:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Red Flags at Typhoon Touch Technologies [View article]
    Can you ever get a borrow?
    Jul 9 12:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CACC: An Ideal Play on the Consumer, Auto, and Credit Markets [View article]
    Jackson, can you please email me directly. I'd like to discuss further. Fascinatingly scary.
    Jul 9 12:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sounding the Alarm on DTS Inc. [View article]
    thanks for the comments. my understanding is that Blue Ray working group has a patent pool of which DTS has contributed IP. DTS gets ~ .30 per unit across platforms and that is SIMILAR to their standard def royalty rate. What bulls miss is that DTS has ~ 92% penetration rate in SD, so will the incremental 8% TAM make a significant difference? What if the HD cycle is weaker than the SD cycle? I'm going to write a follow up tonight that hopefully will be out tomorrow.
    Feb 28 07:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Sad Truth for Answers Corporation Bulls [View article]
    Mark,
    Thank you for your input and your points are well taken. I have disclosed that I am short ANSW so that should explain why I have chosen to post my point of view here. I also appreciate the feedback that this site provides. To your question about my concern surrounding Answers.com turning the profitability corner, my answer is a resounding “no.” First, I do not believe consensus estimates. Second, for Answers.com to grow the top line, I believe they will need to spend to do so (you point out that direct sales campaigns will increase RPM’s – direct sales people cost money), which will limit their profitability. I think that Answers.com will be CF+, but I also tried to point out that FAS 123R expense is a real cost and extremely significant for ANSW, although it’s not a cash cost. I think that the company is issuing stock to employees, and more lavishly to management, as a substitute for cash comp, which artificially boosts CFO. Further, I am modeling interest income to represent almost 50%+ of their “earnings” in 1H’07 – which surely doesn’t warrant a multiple. Recall, ANSW has ~ 11M shares out, which leads to a $143M market cap, so a few pennies of “pro forma” earnings doesn’t concern me as a short. In fact, I think there are a significant number of shareholders like yourself that believe this “turn” will represent a major catalyst, which seems odd given the fact the company has guided to be CF+ and profitable throughout 2007, and analyst estimates reflect this assumption. It is my opinion that Q1’07 profitability may actually represent a major negative event when the news hits and all of the longs ask themselves “ok, now what?” On a separate note, I would be very curious to know what metrics (queries, RPM’s, and opex) you are using to arrive at your $1.00 of EPS for 2007. Either way, I appreciate the feedback. Our differing opinions are what make the horse race.
    Mar 27 07:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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