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Jacob Jordan  

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  • U.S. Economy Stirs: The Real Thing Or Depreciation Dilemma? [View article]
    Nice article.
    Feb 5, 2012. 11:04 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent Recession Call: ECRI Got It Wrong [View article]
    You're correct. The substantial lead time is what makes the ECRI stand apart from all others. Interestingly, we are now beginning to approach the cusp.
    Feb 5, 2012. 10:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The 3 Biggest Reasons To Stay Out Of Bank Stocks [View article]
    The criticism directed at this article's lack of research, technical analysis, etc. is unwarranted. Mr. Wilson does a great job at acknowledging the presence of headwinds currently facing not just BAC, but many financials.

    The P/E ratio of other Buffett-owned financials, BAC's desperate attempts to confuse layoffs with sustained profitability, unprecedented anti-bank sentiment and trading losses are only a handful of the topics covered in this article.

    Read the article before you comment on it.

    Another thing--what's with the comment about the author being "wide of [sic] the mark if you believe that the Eurozone crisis is over..."?

    The only references I saw to the Eurozone were PESSIMISTIC:

    "While the Greek crisis seems to have a pretty good fix for the time being (if it holds), there is reason to believe that it won't be as easy next time."

    That not only implies the solutions in Greece may not hold up, it also says the next round of problems will be worse.

    "Italy, which is probably going to be the next "Greece", is a much larger economy."

    How is that stating the the Eurozone crisis is behind us? It also implies things are getting worse, @mgpagan!

    The extent of analysis demanded by some of the commenters makes me suspect they are longs who are finding it increasingly difficult to suppress their regret over having followed Mr. Buffett like cattle. You people do realize that those are preferred shares dangling from that stick, correct?

    What this article lacks in terms of depth is more than compensated for in terms of breadth. It's a well-rounded and intuitive take on the current climate in the financial markets. It would be excellent starting point for any potential BAC investors.

    "Warren Buffett did my due diligence for me" is not due diligence. Warrent Buffett did due diligence for himself, not you retail longs out there. He ultimately decided that his $5 billion emergency liquidity injection would be a good "investment" for Warren Buffett.

    It's funny how you BAC longs either 1) point to Warren (with his preferred shares and who knows what kind of guarantees) as a lazy excuse to justify a bad decision, or 2) accuse those who say the obvious about BAC of being amateurish for not performing more rigorous research.

    Nice article, Brian.
    Nov 9, 2011. 03:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: Second Guessing My Purchase [View article]
    I mean it sincerely. It is LEAPS AND BOUNDS more difficult to publicly retrace one's logic about an investment they suspect they may be wrong about.

    It is much more natural for people to desperately attempt to save face up to the bitter end. They suppress their instinct about an investment they 1) just flopped on through lack of due diligence, pure misfortune, etc. or 2) were duped into. In the case of #2, as they disingenuously defend what they know to be untrue (very dangerous if the person is articulate by nature), they become unwitting accomplices to the the remorseless liars who baited them into the pump and dump.

    This type of writing is a rare find in the investing blogosphere.

    I could not agree with you more as to the benefits of being able to subject your decision to this kind of constructive analysis.

    I hope the whole thing works out for you. For the sake of full disclosure, I do have puts on BAC. Perhaps... by some miracle...we can both make out like bandits.

    Good luck to you, Cameron.
    Nov 2, 2011. 11:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A 'Dumb Money' PSA: Get Out Of The S&P 500 [View article]
    Any of those things, taken alone, sound great.

    I disagree with you on Buffett. I realize Buffett's investments exceed his interest in BAC. You may be correct in assuming his publicized investment activities bode well.

    However, as for BAC itself, I don't see Warren Buffett's abrupt injection of cash into BAC preferreds being anything other than an emergency $5 billion dollar cash infusion into a VERY sick company. It is much more desirable to provide emergency capitalization via private means, rather than provide direct liquidity (which communicates to the public, "We're having problems heeerree!")

    I am sure Buffett, as smart as he is, stands to benefit no matter what happens to BAC.

    As for the EU: no, the world does not end should a smaller country be thrown out. However, the people who recovered from giant losses they incurred over the last few months (August-early October) are going to wish they had paid more attention to macro-complexities, rather than trust the pundits who acted as if the EU thing had been cemented together and done with.

    Papandreou's little surprise on Tuesday demonstrates how quickly this entire arrangement--which did not even make sense to begin with--can become undone.

    Possible recessions in the US, China, Europe. A Federal Reserve whose remaining monetary firepower is debated. Unknown amounts of European credit default swap exposure. The unknown status regarding whether or not an "informal" or "voluntary" default would trigger those CDS events. The idea that the S&P 500 broke through support, and hit 1099 only several weeks ago. The Super-committee--will it become politicized as in August? Will S&P downgrade the US again? Will, as Bank of America predicts, another rating agency follow suit with S&P's first downgrade? Will Italy craft an austerity package? What about Portugal? What about Spain?

    See, I do not have to know the outcome of any one of these things. The sheer scale of problems, however, shows that there are plenty of reasons (i.e. excuses) for the market could go down--big time--over the next several months. Apart from any one of them occurring, a simple rumor or "educated guess" about whether they will occur quickly snowballs into a narrative that makes the market more volatile. It's the abundance of macro problems that I say points to downside.

    Good luck with whatever positions you have--long or short. Thanks for reading the article and for the feedback.
    Nov 2, 2011. 01:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: Second Guessing My Purchase [View article]
    Nice article. It's also nice to occasionally see someone honestly and critically analyze their own investment choices, instead of relentlessly playing the role of a stock promoter/basher.
    Nov 2, 2011. 10:44 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A 'Dumb Money' PSA: Get Out Of The S&P 500 [View article]
    Thanks. Hopefully you like it because you will benefit on the short side.
    Nov 1, 2011. 08:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A 'Dumb Money' PSA: Get Out Of The S&P 500 [View article]
    The "promoters" as you call them--the narrative pushers--can push their "interpretation" up to a point. The threshold will usually manifest itself in unemployment, hyperinflation and/or bank runs. Even then, it is perplexing how soon people buy right back into the next narrative. We are the United States of Amnesia.

    Thanks for reading, and for your feedback.
    Nov 1, 2011. 06:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A 'Dumb Money' PSA: Get Out Of The S&P 500 [View article]
    It's reflective of the financial news media in its entirety.
    Nov 1, 2011. 05:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A 'Dumb Money' PSA: Get Out Of The S&P 500 [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. That's the thing that surprises me again and again, though; I just don't believe the "market"--be it the retail investor component and the institutional players have discounted the current environment. I believe the reality of our economic prospects is definitely more baked into the institutional rather than the retail side, but not to the extent I believe you are describing.

    In my opinion, the inundation of long articles and commentary during a single upswing or positive-earnings period tells a big part of the story. People are only reading headlines, and the problematic complexity (particularly with the EU) is discounted, if not completely ignored.

    In terms of being long, investors are simply NOT being circumspect in a way that is commensurate with the hurdles, headwinds, and political frictions looming on the horizon. The way the markets clung to Merkozy's optimistic promises again, and again, and again--regardless of how many times meetings were cancelled, promises were broken, etc.--tells me this is the biggest crowd of sheep ever.

    I really believe 50% of non-institutional investors (maybe some institutional ones as well) really believe Greece alone is the issue, and would be completely at a loss if asked to explain why.

    Thanks for reading the article, Alphalfa. Nice name.
    Nov 1, 2011. 04:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A 'Dumb Money' PSA: Get Out Of The S&P 500 [View article]
    I just want to mention that it took 48 hours for this to be published. I submitted it on Sunday night--so please spare me the Johnny-come-lately criticisms.

    Thanks, and good luck with what's coming.

    Nov 1, 2011. 04:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • European Crisis Postponed; Investors Face Momentous Decision [View article]
    Point taken on the market's veto power. Where do you stand on the trajectory of the EU over the course of the next 3 to 6 months, as it pertains to U.S. markets?
    Oct 29, 2011. 10:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • European Crisis Postponed; Investors Face Momentous Decision [View article]
    As someone who used the last few weeks' rallying to buy long puts on XLF and other financials, your grounded perspective is appreciated.

    It's been pretty easy to see through the headline noise for the last several weeks, although tonight's developments in the EU and the reaction in the futures market is unnerving. Ultimately, however, the prognosis of market conditions I've developed over the last several weeks still reigns supreme--my puts are here to stay. I concur with you on the the likelihood of seeing the S&P at 950.

    In the end, I feel like my understanding of the market situation is more reliable than the Brownian motion of the incoherent media narrative. Thanks for writing a solid article which helps cut through this noise.
    Oct 27, 2011. 05:22 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Make ETFs Less Risky [View article]
    Forget the ETF market. We need tighter circuit breakers on the Fed and the Obama administration, both of which are dead-set on ensuring the economy is not permitted to flush itself of the toxic investment decisions from yester-year. No pain, no gain--only a bigger explosion in our face down the road.
    Oct 26, 2011. 03:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Make ETFs Less Risky [View article]
    I cannot take seriously the notion that ETFs thwart the price discovery process of the equity market; at least not while the Federal Reserve tosses trillions into markets and the broader economy, creating feedback loops that are ultimately more destructive.
    Oct 26, 2011. 03:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment