Comments on Jacob Moore Polins' articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/jacob-moore-polins/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/81518-oil-s-gains-are-due-to-fundamentals-not-speculation?source=feed#comment-582905 582905 Fri, 10 Jul 2009 19:11:46 -0400
I have never heard of ANY end user of oil needing oil and had to out bid other people for it thereby pushing up prices. I have never heard any oil supplier complaining about the weakness of the US $ and thereby demand more for their oil. All these technical measures are just convenient tools used by the speculator to justify their speculative activity. Speculators are parasites! They want to reap where they did NOT sow. And they want to make money doing nothing. There should be a law which would make the making of money without the adding of value a CRIME similar to counterfeiting!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/78939-the-3-main-reasons-behind-this-recession?source=feed#comment-318597 318597 Tue, 02 Dec 2008 01:19:42 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/81518-oil-s-gains-are-due-to-fundamentals-not-speculation?source=feed#comment-187426 187426 Tue, 17 Jun 2008 22:42:21 -0400
Technolgy improvements are extending well life and making shale discoveries economic. Plus with the increase in oil prices deep water drilling becomes economic. That is two thirds of the globe that can be drilled. Brazil has found a huge reservoir and Canada has had productive wells drilled into the Atlantic Ocean for years. If America also drilled the Continental shelf major oil resevoirs would be discovered.

As Malthus population growth theory was proved incorrect due to technological advancements so shall Hubberts peak oil theory. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81518-oil-s-gains-are-due-to-fundamentals-not-speculation?source=feed#comment-187366 187366 Tue, 17 Jun 2008 19:08:09 -0400
Hubbert certainly wasn't wrong about US peak oil production, it's been declining since 1970]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81518-oil-s-gains-are-due-to-fundamentals-not-speculation?source=feed#comment-187229 187229 Tue, 17 Jun 2008 14:52:53 -0400
Where were you when Enron was cheating everybody?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81518-oil-s-gains-are-due-to-fundamentals-not-speculation?source=feed#comment-187135 187135 Tue, 17 Jun 2008 12:33:36 -0400
One more time, NO ONE testifies before Congress without being invited to by the respective Committee chairman. Now, let me ask you, since the Liberals run Congress, who do you think they're going to invite to testify?

Respected economists, who know something about supply and demand and oil prices, or Democrat flunkies they can trot out before their fellow travelers in the news media?

I'll let you anwer that for yourselves... I can't wait to hear your posts on this one. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81518-oil-s-gains-are-due-to-fundamentals-not-speculation?source=feed#comment-187090 187090 Tue, 17 Jun 2008 11:27:14 -0400
www.commerce.senate.go...


and this one:

www.star-telegram.com/...

See what others are saying about speculation in commodity futures helping to drive up commodity prices.

Also check out Phil Davis and Anthony Schneider on SeekingAlpha regarding the fraud that is going on.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81518-oil-s-gains-are-due-to-fundamentals-not-speculation?source=feed#comment-187081 187081 Tue, 17 Jun 2008 11:14:34 -0400
But the price of oil today is due to fundamentals alright. The fundamentally flawed thinking of the Greens and their minions in the U.S. Congress.

If and when we fix that, the price will come down. But, as posters point out, looking at our presidential candidates, don't look for that to happen anytime soon.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81518-oil-s-gains-are-due-to-fundamentals-not-speculation?source=feed#comment-186965 186965 Tue, 17 Jun 2008 08:55:40 -0400
Can you say "rock and a hard place"??

Atlantic Ave: while McCain may not bring much "new" to the discussion, the crappola that Barack Hussein Obamma brings is downright frightening. He wants to slap a windfall profits tax on oil and place a confiscatory tax on 5 companies. All of this burden being placed on the only companies/people doing anything to help supply us with oil. Yeah, that's really going to help our supply problem!! Let's see, spin off Exxon into two companies, one US based and one international based. Huge percentage of profit and revenue would be in the international portion; small portion left in US. That way Bamma Mamma's greedy little marxist hands couldn't get to their earnings. Yeah, tax and tax, always works. Can we not get a "do over" on these two candidates?? I really think both are pretty crappy as it relates to oil and the economy.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81518-oil-s-gains-are-due-to-fundamentals-not-speculation?source=feed#comment-186953 186953 Tue, 17 Jun 2008 08:44:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/81518-oil-s-gains-are-due-to-fundamentals-not-speculation?source=feed#comment-186951 186951 Tue, 17 Jun 2008 08:40:02 -0400 Oil already is the backing of the US dollar and has been since the early 70's. The problem is it's like getting an equity loan by using someone else's house, and that house is in better condition than yours!

Atlantic Ave:
Since our economy is highly dependent on being mobile, any major change to the mix will be very disruptive. We probably should get back to rail over air transportation, and move toward electric/natural gas over gasoline for personal transportation, but will we?

In any event, we won't see $1000/barrel oil (for long). The Western powers won't tolerate it, and it'll be WWIII. Anything over $200 and the middle class will disappear.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81518-oil-s-gains-are-due-to-fundamentals-not-speculation?source=feed#comment-186880 186880 Tue, 17 Jun 2008 04:48:10 -0400

Re. Shale Oil/Tar Sands etc. Watch the energy, not the dollars. The EROEI (Energy Returned On Energy Invested - ie. how many Barrels of Oil you get for each Barrel of Oil used during production) with these is certainly below 5:1 and quite probably below 2:1 for the foreseeable future. Whereas light sweet crude, even now, has an EROEI more like 20:1 (and was close to 100:1 in the early decades of oil).

Dollars don't matter, if some country has all the oil and another country has all the dollars why would the owner of the oil want to swap these days - the dollar is in decline. You can't power your car with dollars, you can with oil products.


I think that Either
a) Oil will hit $1000/barrel by end of 2010 due to Peak Oil and very high dollar inflation
OR
b) There will be such a severe worldwide recession - including the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China) - that worldwide consumption of Oil will actually fall for 5 years or so.

I think that either way, once we get to 2012, the dollar will no longer be the World's reserve currency - something gold based probably (or oil based!)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81518-oil-s-gains-are-due-to-fundamentals-not-speculation?source=feed#comment-186771 186771 Mon, 16 Jun 2008 20:22:02 -0400
I don't see McCain bringing anything new to the table (he's a Bush clone so vote for him if you like where the U.S. is heading), but I'm unhappy with the lack of discussion on this issue by Obama.

But we shall see.

Personally, I hope oil goes to $200/barrel. Maybe the U.S. will wake up and start funding much needed public transportation initiatives and curtail destructive suburban sprawl. In the meantime, I'm just going to continue to profit on my energy stocks (oil, gas and solar) as I watch the price of oil spiral upwards and upwards.

I got rid of my car years ago. I live in the city and walk or take public transportation. Whenever I leave NYC, I find that the rest of America has been transformed into a hideous strip-mall of tacky chain stores, fast-food outlets, parking-lots and freeways. We can thank the automobile industry, the oil industry, the housing industry, and the U.S. Congress with it's highway subsidies for the devastation wreaked upon the American landscape.

Personally, I'm hoping for an ending out of the Talking Heads song (Nothing But) Flowers: "This was a Pizza Hut, now it's all covered with Daisies..."

If the apocalypse is coming, might as well profit from it. In the meantime, write your congressman and tell them to support renewable energy...
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81518-oil-s-gains-are-due-to-fundamentals-not-speculation?source=feed#comment-186692 186692 Mon, 16 Jun 2008 17:44:06 -0400
the truth is the technology is not there and the production rate needed will never be therem much less be there months ago

in a word, the economy cannot support $200 barrel an oil

hence the devastating tsunami of a hyperinflationary/depr... we are heading for in the coming months

got health?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81518-oil-s-gains-are-due-to-fundamentals-not-speculation?source=feed#comment-186687 186687 Mon, 16 Jun 2008 17:25:40 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/81518-oil-s-gains-are-due-to-fundamentals-not-speculation?source=feed#comment-186686 186686 Mon, 16 Jun 2008 17:25:15 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/81518-oil-s-gains-are-due-to-fundamentals-not-speculation?source=feed#comment-186676 186676 Mon, 16 Jun 2008 17:06:41 -0400
At $200 a barrel the world will go into a deeper recession, in which case I agree with George Soros, demand will decrease.

Keep looking out of your window at SUV traffic in New Jersey. Also check the sidewalks.


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81518-oil-s-gains-are-due-to-fundamentals-not-speculation?source=feed#comment-186632 186632 Mon, 16 Jun 2008 16:12:56 -0400
As even Bush admitted, "We are addicted to oil," and when your pusher doubles the price of a fix, an addict sacrifices everything else to pay for that fix. If oil rose to $200, gasoline might hit $6 per barrel (not $10, see below), and Americans would cough up the $6, and sacrifice in other areas, because we're all addicts (except the Amish).

Your second mistake is assuming that if oil prices nearly doubled (from $135 to $200), then gasoline prices would actually double. FYI, even if it actually doubled (which would mean $270/barrel oil), gasoline prices would not double, because the price of oil is only one part of the cost of gasoline. Other parts include refining costs, pipeline costs, tanker costs, gas station overhead, federal taxes, and state taxes (which do not double when oil prices double, because voters would not allow it, so instead, taxes would actually fall by 50% as a percentage of the gasoline price).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81518-oil-s-gains-are-due-to-fundamentals-not-speculation?source=feed#comment-186627 186627 Mon, 16 Jun 2008 16:03:46 -0400
And $9 is the "unit" price, which is one piece of the equation. The other piece is the volume of gallons. If I could get by with 1 gallon a gasoline per week and pay, say, $20 dollars for this single gallon, I'd jump for joy. So, it's not the $9 dollars alone, is the total cost of your energy bill.

Also, last I heard things weren't that rosy on your neck of the woods, with truck drivers striking in Portugal, Spain, and France to protest the current high prices of fuel. Imagine what they'll do if it goes even higher.


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81518-oil-s-gains-are-due-to-fundamentals-not-speculation?source=feed#comment-186594 186594 Mon, 16 Jun 2008 14:57:54 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/81518-oil-s-gains-are-due-to-fundamentals-not-speculation?source=feed#comment-186590 186590 Mon, 16 Jun 2008 14:52:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/81518-oil-s-gains-are-due-to-fundamentals-not-speculation?source=feed#comment-186589 186589 Mon, 16 Jun 2008 14:52:39 -0400
The good news is that higher prices are finally starting to have an effect and we are addressing issues that we should have been addressing for the last thirty years. Maybe we'll learn our lesson and start dealing with problems before they become problems of this magnitude --- such as global shortages in energy, food, and water.

As far as housing goes, I sold my apartment 3 years ago and I'm renting ---- and I'm expecting to be renting for a long time. Another painful lesson that could have been prevented if Wall Street and the banks had a shred of common sense. The meltdown in commercial real estate and the credit card defaults, shouldn't be far behind. Let's face it, were in trouble.

As far as analysts go, I couldn't agree with you more.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81518-oil-s-gains-are-due-to-fundamentals-not-speculation?source=feed#comment-186582 186582 Mon, 16 Jun 2008 14:38:22 -0400
Because NOTHING will EVER change, right? I mean, people will NEVER demand shale-oil excavation, nor will they EVER want to use natural gas. Electric cars will NEVER take off, and the fuel-cell car that is actually being delivered to certain test markets in California? Just a fad.

People will pay and pay and never even CONSIDER an alternative.

(LOL)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81518-oil-s-gains-are-due-to-fundamentals-not-speculation?source=feed#comment-186557 186557 >Even Goldman Sachs' $200 prediction looks to cheap for me.<< That's moronic, it can only come from people that look at charts and numbers every day without checking reality. At $200 a barrel, gasoline would be around $9 dollars a gallon, diesel around $11, heating oil over $10. Simple question: who can afford that? Who do you think is going to pay for your $200 a barrel? The author makes the classic mistake of thinking the price of oil is inelastic. His "facts" are questionable, for 10 authors you point out that support the peak oil theory, there are other 10 to question it. Besides the point, there are tar sands (reservers that are more than double the crude oil in Saudi Arabia), shale oil, coal, etc. So, in the long run prices will go DOWN, if anything, due to lower demand for sweet crude. I just think it's ludricous to think the economy can support a $200 oil barrel. It sounds more and more like the house bubble as if people would never not stop buying 1/2 million dollar homes, the sky is the limit. Ah, these stupid analysists... if they only would measure their "facts" against reality... ]]> Mon, 16 Jun 2008 14:06:51 -0400 >Even Goldman Sachs' $200 prediction looks to cheap for me.<<
That's moronic, it can only come from people that look at charts and numbers every day without checking reality.

At $200 a barrel, gasoline would be around $9 dollars a gallon, diesel around $11, heating oil over $10. Simple question: who can afford that? Who do you think is going to pay for your $200 a barrel?

The author makes the classic mistake of thinking the price of oil is inelastic. His "facts" are questionable, for 10 authors you point out that support the peak oil theory, there are other 10 to question it. Besides the point, there are tar sands (reservers that are more than double the crude oil in Saudi Arabia), shale oil, coal, etc. So, in the long run prices will go DOWN, if anything, due to lower demand for sweet crude.

I just think it's ludricous to think the economy can support a $200 oil barrel. It sounds more and more like the house bubble as if people would never not stop buying 1/2 million dollar homes, the sky is the limit.

Ah, these stupid analysists... if they only would measure their "facts" against reality...
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/78945-citigroup-a-promising-blue-chip?source=feed#comment-182414 182414 Tue, 10 Jun 2008 09:30:22 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/78941-the-truth-about-oil-prices?source=feed#comment-176544 176544 Fri, 30 May 2008 07:59:11 -0400
Nice rant, Reb. It makes me feel better, too, when I go off like that.
But, don't worry, help is on the way. New polls show 2/3 of Americans want to drill for oil and gas in the onshore and offshore U.S. and in ANWR. And 90% won't pay a nickel for CO2 recapture or carbon sequestration. The only thing the Socialists in Congress fear more than losing big money from their green friends is losing their next election. Now all we need is a presidential candidate who isn't one of them. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/78941-the-truth-about-oil-prices?source=feed#comment-175549 175549 Wed, 28 May 2008 17:56:13 -0400
You could be right about the continued spike in the ppb over the short term, but the public is almost fully invested in energy stocks and ETFs. So the bust out is surely not far away, and this will have absolutely nothing to do with where we can drill or can't or what supply and demand is.

The ppb will crash when the momemtum players believe that every sucker in the world that can buy an Oil or Energy ETF or an oil or energy stock or a futures contract is fully invested. At that time, they will know that they and their crony touts at the Big NY Houses have sucked every cent out of every sucker.

In the long run, however, energy prices will certainly climb, if we don't get rid of the leftists now running Congress. And we should learn after their control from 1932 to 1992 that, it's hard as a New Jersey mobster to get them out of office after they get in and begin buying the votes of hoi polloi.

Because the Dumborats in Congress want to control everything we do and also think they're smarter than every other living being and think they know what's best for all of us, they'll do all they can to keep energy prices high, because they hate anything that comes from the earth, except, of course, corn and grains, which should be used for food; but those brilliant beings want us to use them for fuel.

The Controlcrats also hate with a passion that so many Americans have become so affluent over the last eight years that, even after the Y-2-K Con, the Dotbomb explosion (and terrible aftermath), 9-11, and Katrina, our resilient, hard-working people can still afford large homes and SUVs.

Leftists want to be the only ones who can ride in limos, have a home in their district (or state), one in Washington, and a million dollar vacation get away. They want the rest of us traveling by mass transit, sitting around our homes huddled up with the thermostat at 60 degrees in the winter, and fanning ourselves in the summer with the air conditioning set on 85.

For the Controlcrats, the average American being able to afford most anything he wants is too much affluency and far too much freedom. Thus behind-the-scenes, no matter what the Liarcrats say in public, they are cheering high energy prices, and they'll do all they can to keep them high.

But that doesn't mean that the recent 50% spurt of the last few months will last. Prices will crash from where they are, and the media will begin telling us how flush oil supplies are, and that will cause them to go down further.

But I doubt whether we'll ever see them back to the levels we have over the past fifteen years when reasonably priced energy has helped the nation more than double its gross production rates and also has aided so many people to become well off.

I don't like the politicians who're purposely atempting to put the squeeze
on oil supplies so that prices will spurt upward and they can brainwash the people into accepting their eco-maniac agendas. These same cynical type of people have been predicting the earth's demise for the last sixty years. They simply have to change every decade or so in they manner they tell us it's going to die; today they tell us it's going to heat up to a boiling point and explode, killing every living thing. Another hoax!

Me, I like seeing people prosper. I like their being free to choose the homes and cars they like and can afford. I enjoy seeing my friends businesses flourish, and I like seeing people happy, and getting that way the way they please.

But, of course, I'm not a Controlcrat.

Rebeldog]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/78939-the-3-main-reasons-behind-this-recession?source=feed#comment-175306 175306 Wed, 28 May 2008 12:36:46 -0400
Now the peak oil folks are saying, 'see, we told you so' (high gas prices, political turmoil), and the environmentalists are saying ,' see, we told you so ' (food shartage, storms, bad weather).

We need to keep cool heads at this point. First, there is evidence enough that the various political situations, including relative falling petroleum supply (i.e., we cannot just crank up oil supply to meet demand) coupled with a panicked rush to commodities due to the financial collapse and various derivative contracts, shorting, etc. are big factors in the energy issues.

Now, peak oil eventually may be real, and with half the world waking up and developing, we need to take the underlyiong theory seriously. I think $120+ barrel oil may end up saving us IF we act NOW to start developing alternatives. We need tax incentives, government sponsorship, as well as good old American ingenuity to kick in NOW.The $120/barrel oil creates the economic framework to make alternatives possible.

This is not the time to give up as some of the more liberal peak oil advocates imply we should. A wise Catholic Saint once said something like 'Know that God can do anything, but act as though He will do nothing'. Let's not forget there is a God, and He could be testing us, He could be punishing us. We do not know for sure. But do not give up. Turn back to some of our basic Christian values (and natural law in general), think about what we are doing and why, and let's roll up our sleeves to solve this issue- not just prepare for the end, and hide in the wilderness. It is not all criticism for the more liberal peak oilers- some of their ideas about reviving urban living are not all bad, and make sense certainly in the short to medium timeframe. Much of their criticisms of suburbia deserve some consideration.

Let's also not get all tied up with Gore gloom and doom over highly speculative theories about disasterous human induced CO2 warming of the planet. In fact we may be headed for a little ice age! Let's develop any energy source we can, and not let the environmentalists tell us (especially the U.S., China and India which have extensie coal reserves) that coal is out because of the CO2 problem. This is pure insanity at this juncture. If the peak oil problem is allowed to play out because of our inaction, you will see an environmental disaster of unimagineable proportions. Even the anti-Christian Malthusian Darwinists could not create a scenario so hororible (though God knows they keep trying).

Turn back to basic values, including. God, country and family, roll up your sleeves, do not give up, and let's work together (with the rest of the world) to solve the problems ahead of us.

siv0.com
TakeBackTheFed.com ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/78939-the-3-main-reasons-behind-this-recession?source=feed#comment-175263 175263 Wed, 28 May 2008 11:45:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/78939-the-3-main-reasons-behind-this-recession?source=feed#comment-175262 175262 Wed, 28 May 2008 11:45:14 -0400