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Jacob Steinberg  

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  • Cheap iPhones And Buybacks Won't Solve Apple's Problems [View article]
    Apple's problems? I wish I had a problem like being the most profitable company in the history of the US. I love how some people talk as if Apple is on its death bed even though it literally prints money.
    Jan 30, 2014. 09:19 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SodaStream: Management Brushes Off Concerns [View article]
    We are talking about a growth company with double-digit revenue growth, and it trades for a P/E of 15 or so. Most companies with SodaStream's growth rates trade for 50-200 times their earnings (Amazon, Yelp, DDD, Pandora, Tesla, SolarCity) and many of those companies are not even profitable. The market is being unfair to SodaStream. It's still a growth company.

    There is no reason why SodaStream should have a lower P/E than Coca Cola when it enjoys 10 times as much growth. That's like giving Amazon Wal-Mart's P/E or giving Tesla Ford's P/E.
    Jan 16, 2014. 05:34 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is SodaStream's Crash Warranted? [View article]
    Canned soda is very cheap in the US, but that's not necessarily true everywhere else. In many European countries, you are lucky if you can get 1 can of soda for $2.25, let alone 12 cans.
    Jan 14, 2014. 10:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Capitalizing On Cannabis: Key Considerations For Cannabis Stock Investors [View article]
    Is there an ETF for this industry? It would be nice to have an ETF so that the risk is somewhat limited.
    Jan 13, 2014. 02:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Yelp's Ridiculous Run-Up Continues [View article]
    @Darkesmoke,
    I've never shorted a stock in my life if you don't count going both sides of the trade with a straddle/strangle. So when you say that I have a history of shorting stocks I've written out, you are clearly lying and misleading people.
    Jan 13, 2014. 05:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Payrolls add 74K in December; UE rate down to 6.7% [View news story]
    I wonder how many of the people who dropped out of the work force are retirees. There must be a lot of retirees since baby boomers make up the largest portion of the population and they are at the retirement age currently.
    Jan 10, 2014. 04:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Remains A Buy [View article]
    For Tesla SG&A and R&D expenses rise faster than the company's revenues rise. Your model assumes that those two items will remain flat while revenue doubles, which probably won't be the case.

    Also, a lot of cars will be sold under "leasing" terms and Tesla can't book that revenue right away.

    On the other hand, average sale price will be closer to $100,000 because most people get the bigger battery package and add some sizable options to their car.

    I could see Tesla selling 35,000 cars (40,000 is the runrate they will reach by December 2014, not the number of cars they will sell during the year) with an average sale price of 100,000 and generating $3.5 billion in (non-gaap) revenues. If we assume a gross margin of 25%, we are looking at $875 million in gross profits. Last quarter, Tesla booked $56 million in R&D costs and $77 million in SG&A costs but the company guided that both costs would increase by 20-25% in the fourth quarter. In 2014, R&D costs are likely to pass $250 and SG&A costs are likely to pass $350 (realistically, much more than that). This gives Tesla $275 million in pre-tax and pre-interest profits.

    Doesn't look bad actually.
    Jan 5, 2014. 05:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Sellers Are Targeting Overvalued Tesla, What About You? [View article]
    <<<< Do you have a reference for that or did you just make it up?

    ... crickets

    Nope?

    Nothing google can dig up on that score either. >>>

    It's in Tesla's last quarterly shareholder letter under "q4 outlook."

    http://bit.ly/1g5x1le

    Thanks for proving that you invest in companies without even reading their quarterly statements. Keep investing on nothing but empty hype.
    Jan 3, 2014. 08:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Sellers Are Targeting Overvalued Tesla, What About You? [View article]
    That's not even relevant to Tesla's share price.

    That's as relevant as saying "Bill Gates helps poor people in Africa with his wealth so Microsoft should trade for a P/E of 50." SpaceX is a completely different company than Tesla.
    Jan 3, 2014. 07:28 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Sellers Are Targeting Overvalued Tesla, What About You? [View article]
    @doubleE
    It's funny that not only you are cherry picking a particular quarter but you are also cherry picking a particular metric to prove your point but even that fails to get your point across. Last quarter, many cars were sent to Europe with much higher price tags than usual and that's not the norm. Even for the fourth quarter, Tesla guided that its operating expenses would increase by 20-25% while revenues only increase by 10%. How will you twist that?
    Jan 3, 2014. 07:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Sellers Are Targeting Overvalued Tesla, What About You? [View article]
    @doubleE
    You tell me to look at one specific quarter and you tell me I'm cherry picking? Gotta love the giant irony there (in Elon's words "giga-irony").

    For the fourth quarter, Tesla anticipates its R&D expenses to increase by 27% and SG&A expenses by 20% while revenue is guided to rise by 10%. This current quarter may be even worse than the last quarter in terms of margins. We don't have a guidance for the 2014 yet, so your guess is as good as anyone's guess.
    Jan 3, 2014. 07:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Sellers Are Targeting Overvalued Tesla, What About You? [View article]
    <<<< The number of people who can afford a $100,000 vehicle is probably close to 30,000,000. That is the top 10% of the population that is affluent. Chop that in half and you have 15,000,000. Now put 10% of them buying a new Tesla Model S or model X and what do you have, 1.5 million cars.

    The demand for a Tesla Model S is 1.5 million units. Every single car that Tesla makes get sold. By the end of 2015 the supercharger network will cover the entire US, so in 2 years when the Model E comes out, Tesla could break the record of the 1965 Ford Mustang. >>>>

    Is this an actual argument or are you being sarcastic here? I don't think anyone in their right mind would make an argument like this. Regardless, thanks for the laugh.

    Yeah Tesla Model S has a demand of 1.5 million cars, that's why the backlog has about 25,000 cars.
    Jan 3, 2014. 07:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Sellers Are Targeting Overvalued Tesla, What About You? [View article]
    Oh so now we also have to bake SpaceX into Tesla's price.

    Empty hype never dies off on this one.
    Jan 3, 2014. 06:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Sellers Are Targeting Overvalued Tesla, What About You? [View article]
    Didn't last year's secondary come exactly a week after Elon said he was planning on having no secondaries anytime soon? He can say "there won't be any more secondaries" but that doesn't mean much since the last time he said that, he changed his word a week later.

    You can twist the facts all you want, Tesla can cook its books all it wants, facts are facts. And since when Tesla has huge margins? I guess only in the Tesla universe where hype takes over reality.

    In the "realityville", Tesla has yet to post a profit and it still has negative margins. Cook all the books in the world, twist it all you want, facts won't really change.

    There won't be a secondary because there will be many rounds of secondaries. The only way Tesla can fund any meaningful growth (and a gigafactory) is though several rounds of secondaries.

    Even if you ignore a possible secondary (like you conveniently do), all the outstanding exercisable options and warrants alone will give us a dilution of 10-15% within the next couple years. How do you twist that?
    Jan 3, 2014. 06:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Sellers Are Targeting Overvalued Tesla, What About You? [View article]
    Let's look at Tesla's first 3 quarters of 2013.

    The total net cash flow: $593 million.

    This includes:

    Cash from convertible debt: $660 million.
    Issuance of warrants: $120 million
    Issuance of common stock: $360 million
    Exercise of stock options: $82 million

    So much for generating cash from car sales.

    If you exclude the cash from financial activities and carbon credit sales, Tesla didn't generate much of a cash flow. It's funny how you say Tesla can ramp up its production without needing secondaries when in fact it already had a secondary less than a year ago and it will have many more along the way.
    Jan 3, 2014. 06:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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