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Jacob Steinberg

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  • Chevron Is Fairly Valued Compared To Historical Standards [View article]
    It would definitely depend on one's goals. For example, it is definitely a "buy" for dividend investors, but it is probably a "hold" for growth investors.
    Feb 19 06:50 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Set To Take Down $200 [View article]
    >>> Based on a survey of 45 million used car listings for sale/sold in the U.S., the average used Model S is said to be going for a whopping $99,734, which is considerably richer than its model-year 2013 base price of $69,900 (or, for that matter, the top-end version's $89,900). <<<
    Oh so they are comparing average used Model S with a base-Model S to make it appear as if Model S doesn't depreciate in value. That's like saying "a fully loaded used Ford Escape 2014 sells for $25,000 which is much higher than the base price of $19,000, which means that Ford Escape's price doesn't depreciate at all." Average Model S in the used market will be a lot more loaded than a base Tesla.
    Feb 10 03:44 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cheap iPhones And Buybacks Won't Solve Apple's Problems [View article]
    Apple's problems? I wish I had a problem like being the most profitable company in the history of the US. I love how some people talk as if Apple is on its death bed even though it literally prints money.
    Jan 30 09:19 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SodaStream: Management Brushes Off Concerns [View article]
    We are talking about a growth company with double-digit revenue growth, and it trades for a P/E of 15 or so. Most companies with SodaStream's growth rates trade for 50-200 times their earnings (Amazon, Yelp, DDD, Pandora, Tesla, SolarCity) and many of those companies are not even profitable. The market is being unfair to SodaStream. It's still a growth company.

    There is no reason why SodaStream should have a lower P/E than Coca Cola when it enjoys 10 times as much growth. That's like giving Amazon Wal-Mart's P/E or giving Tesla Ford's P/E.
    Jan 16 05:34 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Almost Everybody In The Auto Industry Afraid Of Tesla Motors? [View article]
    "Table 4 does not even include the Tesla's truck model which will follow the model E. If we follow the progression, the truck model should be exhibited by 2017 and produced by 2019. I will tweak the table by adding 50,000 units on 2019 and 200,000 units on 2020. Therefore, Tesla will be selling 350,000 units by 2019 and 700,000 units by 2020."

    While we are at it, why don't we add the 10,000 battery powered planes Tesla will build for Boeing starting 2020 and the battery powered space shuttles it will build for NASA in the following year. Dreaming is free after all, why not go all the way?
    Dec 28 05:00 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Bears Are So Wrong About Tesla [View article]
    "because they can do something no other automaker can. Make a car both extremely appealing and green at the same time. The Cadillac ELR and all the other hybrids and electrics are proof that nobody else can"

    So if BlackBerry can build a phone comparable to Apple's iPhone, does it make it worth $400+ billion? Last year Nokia produced a phone comparable to Apple's iPhone but its market cap was below $10 billion. It's not always about what you can produce, it's more about how much money you can make from what you produce.
    Dec 20 03:53 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Valuation Continues To Defy Logic [View article]
    "They generated profit of $0.11 in their last quarter."

    No they didn't. They took the GAAP figures and removed expense items one by one until they appeared to be profitable. By that measure, every company in the world would be highly profitable. You can't just create your own profitability metrics out of thin air.
    Dec 2 12:43 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Valuation Continues To Defy Logic [View article]
    "tesla is the only company that has proven demand (pre-sales) for electric vehicles."

    Last week BMW announced that it already received 10,000 orders for its i3 and the i8 is sold out through 2014 already.
    Dec 2 12:40 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla May Be Out Of Gas And Electricity [View article]
    Your response is not even remotely related to what I am talking about.

    3 fires out of 6,000 may sound like a rounding number but we are talking about brand new cars that are sold for $100,000. How many fires did 2013 model Mercedes Class S vehicles (comparable ICE car) have had in the last few months? I bet it was less than 3. Also, we don't even know if Tesla had *only* 3 fires. There were 3 Tesla fires that were photographed and made it to the media but that doesn't necessarily mean these were the only incidents ever. For example, Tesla knew about the incident in Mexico but didn't even say anything about it until it was on the news 2 weeks later.

    Second, ICE manufacturers don't give that guarantee for a good reason, it is so easy to abuse. You can drive a car for 3 years and then go cause an accident so that you can get your car totaled and replaced with a new one. Your "3 out of 6,000" figure will get much higher if they start including accidents in warranties.

    And regardless of whether it helps the consumers or not, it will hurt Tesla investors. You can't just give stuff away and expect to have high margins. Besides, wasn't Tesla supply constrained? Why would it offer such incentives no one else does. Car companies rarely offer incentives when they are supply constrained.
    Nov 19 03:03 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla May Be Out Of Gas And Electricity [View article]
    I just can't believe Elon Musk said that Tesla will start covering battery damages caused by a fire even if they result from accident. This can't be too good for the company's margins, but then again they can always exclude this cost in their non-GAAP calculations. What's going to happen when someone wants a new car and causes an accident in order to get a replacement from Tesla?

    By the way, before we move on with the discussion, let's get this very important item out of the way: have you driven the car???
    Nov 19 02:49 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Learn From The Mess [View article]
    "As the stock comes down, stop losses for many investors/traders begin to trigger. For a stock like this, particularly if traders/investors are levered to the hilt, this leads to a cascading effect: as stops trigger, selling ensues, which leads to more stops being triggered and so on. This is the exact reverse of what happens with a short squeeze (which is, in my view, what drove the shares so high in the first place)."

    This is true. I would also add margin calls to this.
    Nov 18 05:06 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors Investors Are Ignoring The Facts [View article]
    Not to mention it will probably take several rounds of dilution to get there.
    Nov 11 04:10 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors Investors Are Ignoring The Facts [View article]
    It's also notable that in the weeks preceeding Tesla's 3rd quarter announcement, Tesla's institutional ownership fell from 80s to 50s. Smart money already knew what was going to happen soon enough. I can't wait to find out the current institutional ownership figures.
    Nov 11 02:37 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deutsche raises Tesla PT to $200 from $160, shares +1% AH [View news story]
    Analysts are nothing but trend followers. When a stock goes up, they upgrade, when a stock goes down, they downgrade. Analysts were racing with each other in downgrading Nokia when it was trading for $2 and they are now racing with each other in upgrading the company at prices above $6.
    Sep 18 06:52 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Should Nokia Do Now? [View article]
    They should get in the military industry. They are good at building indestructible equipment.
    Sep 18 11:05 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment