Seeking Alpha

Jae Jun

View as an RSS Feed
View Jae Jun's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Sell Weight Watchers Now, It's A Value Trap [View article]
    Thanks.

    No need to try and convince anyone. All articles on SA are opinion pieces after all. You take what you think is valuable and discard the rest.

    But one point you made is important and telling about preventative care.
    "It's unknowable at this point."

    Exactly that. I'm seeing a lot of justification about preventative care being the next thing for WTW, but it's a completely new business model for them, and as you point out, speculative.

    At what multiple are you willing to pay for the preventative section?

    Thank you for the comment though.
    Apr 10 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Weight Watchers Now, It's A Value Trap [View article]
    No worries. Thanks for your opinion. Mine is also an opinion too.
    Apr 10 01:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Weight Watchers Now, It's A Value Trap [View article]
    Why unfair? The bull argument is that the brand is extremely valuable. But compared to what? What is the measuring stick?

    In the private world you measure yourself against the best. Otherwise you have work to do.

    No point in trying to paint a feel good story by comparing WTW to something like http://www.belviq.com
    Apr 10 01:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Weight Watchers Now, It's A Value Trap [View article]
    No worries champ.
    Apr 10 01:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Weight Watchers Now, It's A Value Trap [View article]
    Past loss is way behind me. That's why I'm writing this :)
    Apr 10 01:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Weight Watchers Now, It's A Value Trap [View article]
    yup. Brands are not as important as people think.

    But one thing to consider is that no matter how superior a product is, it's about the consumer perception.
    You can have the best product in the world, but it doesn't mean it's going to beat the competition. Plenty of awesome and proven products have failed.

    And I'm not too concerned about the debt either. I do know that currently the debt isn't a worrying factor when you consider how low capex this business is.
    Apr 10 01:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Weight Watchers Now, It's A Value Trap [View article]
    You bring up an interesting point though.
    If the preventative care potential is there, then that is a completely different direction to the bull story that the group meetings will continue to be the cornerstone.
    Apr 10 01:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Weight Watchers Now, It's A Value Trap [View article]
    I'm also seeing the way apps and devices are changing people's behavior.
    5 years ago, iphones were laughed at. Now? People will freak out if they leave their phones at home.

    Wearables and free apps may be laughed at now, but it's changing the behavior of people and that is also spreading by word of mouth.

    Great point about Starbucks.
    Apr 10 01:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Weight Watchers Now, It's A Value Trap [View article]
    Whether WTW gets a payment or not isn't important as it does not add value to WTW's intrinsic value. It's not something that is going to rocket WTW out of trouble.
    Apr 10 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Weight Watchers Now, It's A Value Trap [View article]
    Having shelf space doesn't really mean much. There are just as many other competing products sitting next to WTW.
    Apr 9 03:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Weight Watchers Now, It's A Value Trap [View article]
    I did think about the partnerships with healthcare too. Overblown optimism though. The true growth isn't there.

    At my current company, the company pays for people to enroll in health and weight loss programs. I asked around (small sample size) already but 1) they are not interested and 2) they didn't know about but still not interested.

    Survey other companies and the response will be closer than not.

    Do keep in mind that with the level of debt they have, if FCF dropped 50%, the intrinsic value will be much lower. The added assumption is that they continue building or maintaining FCF. If memberships continue falling, then FCF is going to take a hit.

    Lastly, WTW is entirely dependent on their marketing efforts. Last year, Jessican Simpson bailed and WTW blamed that for the dip in profitability. The hit and miss is as bad as the fashion industry.
    Apr 9 02:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Quick Rules Of Thumb To Determine A Strong Business [View article]
    It applies to all industries, although the rule of thumb will change slightly.
    Measure across the industry and see which one is the best and the worst. You'll be able to easily figure out a ballpark figure.
    Apr 8 12:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Quick Rules Of Thumb To Determine A Strong Business [View article]
    ROCE has to be calculated by getting the numbers from the statements. Unless you sign up for something like my Stock Analyzer, it's all manual work.
    Apr 8 12:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Quick Rules Of Thumb To Determine A Strong Business [View article]
    You're right. It should be total debt.
    Apr 8 12:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Important Lesson Microsoft Can Teach You About Growth [View article]
    :) Nice way of putting it
    Apr 2 02:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
349 Comments
205 Likes