Jae Jun

Apple Is Still a Great Investment, Right? Not for Value Investors

JW.USC

LoL
In August AAPL was at $165. Today it's at $203 for a 23% gain.
Since August check out what my portfolio has been doing.
www.covestor.com/mbr/j...

Total portfolio is up more than 110% since August. YTD I am up 190%.
Not just on a single position as well. That's how I feel.

Insmed Still Looks Very Undervalued

It seems like you didn't read the article


On Nov 10 10:40 AM User 504990 wrote:

> When I looked at INSMED a while back, it was set up so that the big
> drug companies reaped all the profits. INSM is just a lab with no
> real value as far as I could see. I would dump it and buy Apple
> or something earning real money.

How Apple's Market Share Will Propel Stock to $500, Part 2

"AdMob discovered that the iPhone OS increased its global market share up 7% to 40% while Nokia dropped 9% down to 34%. "

The data you used is completely wrong and misdirected. Why are you looking at Admob to get your data?

Smartphones still don't account for the majority of phone sales in the US. Apple has about a 16% market share in the US while the leader Samsung is at 35%. If Apple wants to make money, it has to start reaching into other segments.

"Since we’re talking about simplicity I’ll make this easy, there are 6.795 billion people in the world and more than 50% own a cell phone."

Common sense shows that of the 6.795billion where 50% own a cell phone, a huge number of sales go to 3rd world or developing countries. Don't expect to see the iPhone in rural China or Africa.

This is where prepaid and cheap phones come in and why Nokia and Samsung have dominant positions.

Thorton L. O’Glove's 'Quality of Earnings' Provides Timeless Advice for Value Investors

No worries value scouter. Good to see people willing to apply the proper techniques of investing

Thorton L. O’Glove's 'Quality of Earnings' Provides Timeless Advice for Value Investors

Neil,

Wish you had told me sooner about the book.
Any other great reads? I know you're very well educated in the accounting and analysis department so your recommendations would be great.

Insmed Is Well Positioned to Make a Good Deal

Oh I see. I hope you're right though!
I wouldn't mind seeing this baby go back to where it should be.

Portfolio Update: Holdings, Performance

Old Trader,

Thanks. I love stocks that have a beta of greater than 2. It means if the market moves up 1, I'll be up 2.
If the market is down 1, I'll loading up more when its down to -2. :)

I have found volatility to be a great tool.

Insmed Is Well Positioned to Make a Good Deal

Yes I did know about that and I take all delisting notices as noise. It never has really affected any of my previous investments where they received delisting notices.

In fact, it went up more often than not.


On Sep 29 08:19 PM ari5000 wrote:

> Jae -- did you realize they received a Non-Compliant Letter a few
> weeks ago for share price under $1?
>
> Not sure if you did.
>
> I would think this is actually a positive sign as a recent blogger
> suggested. It means management is going to have to kick it into
> high gear and push that price up soon (within months) or they're
> going to lose everything. I bought some today. I've also seen another
> 'value guy' mention this on another site.
>
> I think this just keeps trending down under the 20 day MA and then
> makes up for months of dead money with a one day rip as soon as whatever
> catalyst occurs that gets big pockets to buy in.

Insmed Is Well Positioned to Make a Good Deal

Thanks for those key facts. You obviously know more than me about INSM. Didn't realize the NAPA situation as well.

Either way, to me its a net net, cheap, has cash, no cash burn since the sale with 2 yrs supply.

Don't need a catalyst to see it is cheap anyways.


On Sep 29 03:40 AM RTN wrote:

> From RTN:
>
> Correction:
>
> the NAPO ' investment ' was not an investment as such, rather NAPO
> licensed an insmed compound for further study and the cash involved
> in that deal was given in the form of a stake in NAPO.
>
> Currently skeleton crew of 17 staff total after biogenerics sale
> to merck and an unsuccesfull trial in mmd.
> No new CEO named since the summer, chairman of the board Melvin Sharoky
> in charge since that time.
> Iplex still a natural key component in the human body with a lot
> of literature on growth and repair potential. the bp3 part has promising
> apoptotic properties. Insmed owns the patents on the igf1-bp3 combination
> as well as bp3.
> Iplex is fda approved for use in short stature, removed from market
> for that indication due to a settlement agreement with former Genentech
> over partial production patent on free igf1.(partial buildstone of
> iplex)
>
>
> Catalyst for INSM:
> - ALS expanded acces program in italy, revenue last year in excess
> of 10million dollar (11-12mln), fully reimbursed by the italian government
> . And insmed commented this summer they had two years of stockpile
> of iplex for their current uses.
> -per 2009: free iplex for a limited number of US ALS patients who
> went to battle against the FDA after denial of compasionate use based
> on italian increased survival data of 20-25% (keep in mind ALS is
> fatal). they are closely monitored and have video records of how
> they are doing. This is not an official trial, but a result of a
> compromise between fda and the als patients.
>
> The ALS community in the USA has been deafening silent since that
> time, even though very few were in the passionate use compromise.
> Where before that time they even has a washington DC demonstration
> planned.
>
> Insmed has a big pile of cash and no cash burn.(cash flow positive
> this quarter? )
> Iplex still has value for
> a) its stockpile seeing italian prices
> b)many reported uses in the human body where it allready naturally
> occurs
> c)bp3 also reported to increase effectiveness of drugs like herceptine
> when used in combination. (apoptotic properties)
> www.medicalnewstoday.c... and
> combine with this cancerres.aacrjournals...
>
> (just one example)
>
> Should there be no ALS trial or takeover by merkc/roche or ipsen
> (their business partners per earlier legal agreements, and merck
> with the buying of the insmed facility this year):
>
> In current market conditions a lot of biotech have to give huge discounts
> to get cash in dilution deals since it is hard to get for them. If
> insmed were to partner there i am quite sure they would get a very
> good deal on amount of value for their money should they invest in
> return for royalties.
>
> Not sure which scenario will unfold, but definately back in again
> this summe.

Warren Buffett's Stock Portfolio: Part III

Hi Richard,

Can you show me where you got the formula
price = sqrt of (22.5 * P/TB * EPS)?

Im using the formula as defined in the intelligent investor.


On Sep 25 10:51 AM Ricard wrote:

> BTW, complete formula is price = sqrt of (22.5 * P/TB * EPS). Since
> PG has no tangible book value, this number is meaningless.
>
> This has in fact been the one number that has prevented me from buying
> the vast majority of US blue chips, which by this metric are way
> over valued. This is balanced by your CROIC calculations.

Insmed Is Well Positioned to Make a Good Deal

I don't really invest for the catalyst. I know that many people invest only when a catalyst exists but to me a catalyst will come along.

iGo Inc. Powers Up Impressive Gains

What's great is that IGOI was trading below its net net working capital only a few months back.

Thankfully I was able to get in early when I first started covering the company at 55c.

IGOI new distribution agreements and exposure is doing great for the company. Finally getting back to where it should be.

cheers,
www.oldschoolvalue.com

Calculating Maintenance Cap Ex: Wal-Mart Demonstrates One Method that Makes Sense

Thanks for the idea Ken.

Zabera Demonstrates Uncertainty in Small-Micro Cap Risk Arbitrage

Yo Yo but that is old news. They made the decision to delist by rejecting that offer. Now they come back and say they are looking at alternatives.

Still a good chance that they could reject another offer and do something else.

On Sep 12 10:54 PM Yo-yo wrote:

> Jae - you should have read why they are not delisting - first an
> unsolicited offer was made at $5.50, which was rebuffed and then
> this last announcement reference looking at other strategic options
> (read takeover?). The shares have popped 25%. A takeover is just
> as good an arbitrage exit ...

Portfolio Update: Holdings and Performance

@Tim Stabosz
Total agreement with you on radio stocks. Just unbelievable how cheap it is at current levels. Even going beyond EPS, most radio stocks are already cash flow and FCF positive. Sure they are debt but they are making more cash than what their interest payments are.

@Brian McMorris
I use covestor to track my performance and the graph is dynamic but I only converted it over in oct or nov 2008 so it's still too early to come to conclusions.