@Rovian Margins tell a lot of about the company strategy. It may be superficial to some, but to the majority it is a vital aspect to measure and scrutinize.
@Johnny D I agree. In the end, it is only a has been product.
Middleby Corp: From Obscurity to a Darling Stock [View article]
I've watched MIDD for quite a while but never bought because of their recent acquisitions. I'll have to wait another 2-3 years to see how the acquisitions affect the company.
The problem with the company is that they have only one product. No matter how many doctors recommend the shoe, there is no way it can help to make up the numbers.
As people have mentioned, the shoes are so easily copied and the company itself has 0 moat.
You can bet that the shoe is not a fad, but from a business perspective its terrible.
If you had the opportunity of being the CEO of CROX or NIKE or DECKS which one would you choose?
11 Reasons Why It's Time to Invest in China and 5 Ways to Play It [View article]
Another HUGE factor to consider is the ethics of Chinese businesses. No way are they anywhere near the standards of the west.
We take it for granted here in the US and thankfully only a tiny number of companies still manipulate numbers, but in emerging countries this number will be much much higher.
Its always been said that seeing insider buying is a much bigger signal. Selling could be for so many reasons but buying is for one reason only - its cheap.
IMHO I'm more than 90% it will close but if it doesn't close by the date that I am expecting, I am selling out and looking for other opportunites. Not getting that extra 10% isn't going to kill me and may not be worth it.
On Jan 09 12:42 PM MTJ489 wrote:
> Jae -- > > If PSD trades to $17/shr upon a deal bust, and you make $30 plus > $0.25 in dividends if deal closes, that implies an 86% market-implied > probability of this deal closing. (At the current PSD price of $28.45.) > What that means is unless you have greater than 86% confidence level > of deal completion, you should sell every share that you own. Are > you greater than 86% confident? > > > > > > On Jan 09 12:26 PM Jae Jun wrote:
Satyam as a Case Study: The Numbers Were Too Consistent [View article]
I'm going to take a look at it and see what other question marks there are. Thanks MBA Student.
On Jan 08 09:17 AM MBA Student wrote:
> There are some blatant question marks in the Satyam financials. > From FY 07 to FY 08 the Cash Flow statement indicates an increase > in cash of $138 Million US. However, the balance sheet shows cash > increasing from FY07 to FY 08 by $1 Billion US. Where did the extra > cash come from???
It's even been mentioned in the last filing that upon approval, the merger will close in 2 weeks. That's why there was a press release stating that the deal will not be completed until 2009.
Also, those 78 commitments have been agreed upon for many many months. I have read through it and its stuff like, "PSD assures it will maintain its level of service", "PSD will work with involved parties to ensure fairness" etc etc.
@ User, Macquarie had the financing in place for well over a month now. It's always been the public counsel trying to delay things and I'm not in the least bit worried about the 30 day appeal because it is just another excuse for the public counsel to try and use another delay tactic which shouldnt work anymore.
The market has no clue since it doesn't read the statements and the public hearing filings.
They said the deal was going to be difficult to pass given a 30% spread, but that was overcome quite easily except for the unnecessary delays.
Opportunity to Buy China Natural Gas Before Nasdaq Listing [View article]
Parsing Crocs' Income Statement [View article]
Margins tell a lot of about the company strategy. It may be superficial to some, but to the majority it is a vital aspect to measure and scrutinize.
@Johnny D
I agree. In the end, it is only a has been product.
Middleby Corp: From Obscurity to a Darling Stock [View article]
Parsing Crocs' Income Statement [View article]
As people have mentioned, the shoes are so easily copied and the company itself has 0 moat.
You can bet that the shoe is not a fad, but from a business perspective its terrible.
If you had the opportunity of being the CEO of CROX or NIKE or DECKS which one would you choose?
Merger Review: Puget Energy [View article]
I hope to write about another deal that I have been looking into lately. Lots of fear in this one which also seems to be ridiculously mispriced.
25 Big Companies Worth a Look [View article]
"What do you mean by ‘mispriced’?"
market has priced the company incorrectly.
"What do you mean by ‘cheap’?"
doesnt trade with the required margin of safety.
"What do you mean by ‘worthwhile long term’?"
potential long term where you outperform the market
"What do you mean by ‘worthwhile long hold’?"
worthy of holding for > 5 or 10 years
"What do you mean by ‘declines’?"
decline in price to your buy target ranges.
11 Reasons Why It's Time to Invest in China and 5 Ways to Play It [View article]
We take it for granted here in the US and thankfully only a tiny number of companies still manipulate numbers, but in emerging countries this number will be much much higher.
AeroGrow International: A Lesson in Analyzing Financial Statements [View article]
That was the exact line thousands were saying when the stock was at $5 then at $3 then at $1 and now at 30c.
Even a startup should be smart about its growth rather than grow its inventory by such a crazy margin.
No matter how "hot" the product is, its a one product company with horrible management.
25 Big Companies Worth a Look [View article]
Merger Review: Puget Energy [View article]
On Jan 09 12:42 PM MTJ489 wrote:
> Jae --
>
> If PSD trades to $17/shr upon a deal bust, and you make $30 plus
> $0.25 in dividends if deal closes, that implies an 86% market-implied
> probability of this deal closing. (At the current PSD price of $28.45.)
> What that means is unless you have greater than 86% confidence level
> of deal completion, you should sell every share that you own. Are
> you greater than 86% confident?
>
>
>
>
>
> On Jan 09 12:26 PM Jae Jun wrote:
Merger Review: Puget Energy [View article]
thanks! I breezed through the WUTC filings and came to the same conclusion.
Although I'm not singing at the moment, Im confident that the probability of the deal closing is much higher than it the case for it failing.
Satyam as a Case Study: The Numbers Were Too Consistent [View article]
Thanks MBA Student.
On Jan 08 09:17 AM MBA Student wrote:
> There are some blatant question marks in the Satyam financials.
> From FY 07 to FY 08 the Cash Flow statement indicates an increase
> in cash of $138 Million US. However, the balance sheet shows cash
> increasing from FY07 to FY 08 by $1 Billion US. Where did the extra
> cash come from???
Merger Review: Puget Energy [View article]
Obviously PSE wont be challenging and I think the Commission has had enough of the public counsel from what I read in the filings.
Merger Review: Puget Energy [View article]
It's even been mentioned in the last filing that upon approval, the merger will close in 2 weeks. That's why there was a press release stating that the deal will not be completed until 2009.
Also, those 78 commitments have been agreed upon for many many months. I have read through it and its stuff like, "PSD assures it will maintain its level of service", "PSD will work with involved parties to ensure fairness" etc etc.
@ User,
Macquarie had the financing in place for well over a month now. It's always been the public counsel trying to delay things and I'm not in the least bit worried about the 30 day appeal because it is just another excuse for the public counsel to try and use another delay tactic which shouldnt work anymore.
The market has no clue since it doesn't read the statements and the public hearing filings.
They said the deal was going to be difficult to pass given a 30% spread, but that was overcome quite easily except for the unnecessary delays.
12 Net/Net Stocks with Real Prospects [View article]