Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Jaimini Desai  

View Jaimini Desai's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Parallels Between Oil In 2014 And Gold In 2015 [View article]
    Good points. I do not want to be on the side of gold bulls that are presuming any sort of Russian or Chinese policymakers' omniscience or even competence.

    Our leaders certainly have their flaws but IMO ours are in a different league than most countries esp China and Russia.
    Jul 27, 2015. 04:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Parallels Between Oil In 2014 And Gold In 2015 [View article]
    If the Fed doesn't hike or enters a recession, I think the dollar's uptrend may be temporarily halted but eventually it would be even more bullish for the dollar as deflation would be unleashed. Given current trends in the labor market, housing market and expectations that consumers will finally begin to spend savings from lower gas prices, I do not think this is likely.

    I think gold is following the same path of most retail driven bubbles which tend to mirror the emotional extremes reached on the upside, even die hard bulls giving up and declines of 75-90% from the peak. The fact that so many gold bulls are clinging to narratives like "China is manipulating the price of gold", "the Fed is manipulating", "physical gold is worth 10x paper gold", "the US economy is actually in recession with 10% inflation" is not the psychology that comes with bottoms.
    Jul 27, 2015. 04:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Parallels Between Oil In 2014 And Gold In 2015 [View article]
    Thanks for sharing.

    Your observation also kind of fits with gold falling during QE3 and its fall ending when talk of tapering began.

    However, I am betting that "this time will be different" because I believe the Fed is hiking not due to inflation but instead because it wants to normalize policy and is concerned about financial instability.

    Good Luck.
    Jul 27, 2015. 04:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Parallels Between Oil In 2014 And Gold In 2015 [View article]
    We seem to have very different assumptions and understanding about the world and the economy. I genuinely believe that this is the best time to be alive and tomorrow will be even better. There is more opportunity today to create wealth, have a positive impact and live a high quality of life than ever before.

    Our leaders are not perfect, but I think they are well-intentioned and trying their best in a difficult set of circumstances. I'm sure you disagree with this.

    Anyway, good luck to you.
    Jul 24, 2015. 07:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Parallels Between Oil In 2014 And Gold In 2015 [View article]
    I def agree with your on gold's long term chart - no support.

    I was saying that in a vacuum, ISIS would be bullish for oil/ Greece distress would be bullish for gold. I agree both are trivial but when supply, demand conditions are tight, less trivial headlines have led to prices rising, even if it quickly fades.
    Jul 24, 2015. 06:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons To Be Nervous About The Stock Market [View article]
    You have a great strategy, that works for you. This article is not an attempt to divine the future, and I did my best to make it clear that the items discussed are descriptive.

    I simply believe this is a time for investors/traders to play defense rather than offense. As you point out, there is no guarantee of success. I have been wrong before and will certainly be wrong again in the future.

    Anyway, thanks for your comment!
    May 28, 2015. 12:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500: Get Ready For A Bounce [View article]
    What I meant to say was that I think the Fed and market were too optimistic in its assessment of the US and global economy that we are on the verge of a self sustaining recovery. Based on recent data and the continued struggles of emerging markets that notion looks shaky. Didn't mean to imply a prediction for 2014.

    Sorry for the confusion.
    Feb 7, 2014. 06:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500: 3 Reasons To Be Mega Bullish [View article]
    I actually agree with you. Maybe I should made it more clear in my article that this was meant for a shorter term time frame. I think longer term investments entail much greater risk and being patient 1-2 years in the future much better valuations can be had.

    Despite this longer term bias, I try to remain objective when evaluating short term moves. Agree that the Nasdaq has been strong and there has been more distribution lately during the weakness in May-June and recently.
    Sep 4, 2013. 05:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P500: Warning Signs Accumulate, Time To Take Some Profits [View article]
    These sectors and also emerging markets and precious metals have been showing remarkable strength during this market weakness. And I think it is a sign of accumulation as for so long they were the weakest part of the market.

    I am hoping that eventually this weakness in the market leads to some selling in these names, and I would look to aggressively buy.
    Aug 17, 2013. 07:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P500: Warning Signs Accumulate, Time To Take Some Profits [View article]
    Similarly the total market cap to GDP levels are at overvalued levels.

    http://bit.ly/yXvIhT
    Aug 17, 2013. 07:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P500: Warning Signs Accumulate, Time To Take Some Profits [View article]
    I agree, since November 2012 we haven't really had a big pullback or moment when fear was elevated. It would be healthy to wipe away some froth.
    Aug 17, 2013. 07:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P500: Warning Signs Accumulate, Time To Take Some Profits [View article]
    Thanks, I appreciate it.

    Frankly, I have had to come to terms that I am not real good at long term forecasting. I do believe like Faber that there has to be some long term cost to distorting prices. However, the "doomers" have been wrong for the last 4+ years.

    I have to admit that I was one of those who was expecting inflation to be unleashed due to the Fed's actions, and so far I have been totally wrong.
    Aug 17, 2013. 07:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Do You Find Pricing Failures? [View instapost]
    Getting rain checks when food products are 50% off. Then, using the rain check when there is a buy 1 get 1 free sale.
    Aug 15, 2013. 03:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500: Low Risk, High Reward Opportunity For Bulls [View article]
    The dollar has actually held up well in terms of commodities, other currencies. As long as inflation is low, the only constraint to the Fed printing will be its own political will.
    Jun 19, 2013. 08:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500: Low Risk, High Reward Opportunity For Bulls [View article]
    For me, I think choppy markets require small positions and taking small losses and profits. From mid April to May, we were in a trending market, so I did not feel the need to take much action or write articles.

    Based on the evidence, I think right now we are in a choppy market. with a possibility that we break higher.
    Jun 19, 2013. 08:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
125 Comments
131 Likes