Jake Berzon

Property Values Set to Fall 43% from Current Depressed Levels

Looking at 20 year history of housing prices and calling more than half of it an aberration is at best silly. You need to take a look at longer term trends, which at least include inflationary 70s and the post WWII 40s to lend any credibility to trend analysis. That being said, I agree that residential real estate prices may have not found their bottom yet and may take another serious hit, but only, if inflation doesn't catch up in time.

Oil's Up and Down Ride

Yank, who said anything about $20 oil?! $60 / barrel spot price is my expectation by the end of next year. I expect $US to strengthen in the meantime.

Erewhonman, you have a right to disagree with my opinion just as I have a right to disagree with yours! Colorado's minimum wage is an illustration of the deflationary pressures we are facing and not a basis for "analysis."

Kroger Gains Back Market Share from Wal-Mart

I used the same term "dairy farms" that Kroger does to describe their dairy operations. I am sorry that this caused confusion. The operations are generally located along the railroad tracks away from large city centers and within reasonably close proximity of the cows. Since there are no cows at the facilities themselves, contract farmers provide the raw milk which is processed into dairy products. This business model allows for quick adjustment to market conditions and prices. I have not explored how much hedging and how far into the future Kroger does, but I am sure that they do some forward pricing contracts. Hope this clears things up sufficiently.

Kroger Gains Back Market Share from Wal-Mart

fcharlie, I said that they own dairy farms and they do. I never said that Kroger actually milks cows, which is what you are implying. I believe Kroger contracts this function. Unless your land is on the books at 1950s prices, it's darn near impossible to make money milking cows.

Kroger Gains Back Market Share from Wal-Mart

iggyDalrymple, I recall, most Wal-Mart's gas sales coming from their Sam's Club locations, but there are also those at the Wal-Mart locations. They may sell it under their own name or some other name. They may also contract gas sales to a third party at some locations, the way they do pizza (Papa Murphy's), sandwiches (Subway) and taxes (Jackson Hewitt).

fcharlie, you can find this and much more interesting information on Kroger in their annual factbooks available on the Kroger site: www.thekrogerco.com/fi... . I have also seen some info on the dairy farms in a recent filing.

How the Feds Are Making the Mortgage Mess Even Worse

All is good! CENLAR caught up with processing my payment and they processed it correctly. If they have not processed yours yet, you should give them a call.

CENLAR will not be assessing late fees for payments that were not credited on time, but were received by TB&W within 60 days following the transition. October 9 sounds like the deadline for that.

How the Feds Are Making the Mortgage Mess Even Worse

No, I have never bounced a check. Cashier's checks are required for amounts over a certain threshold every month. TB&W is apparently not the only ones with such a policy.


On Aug 28 10:39 AM Trane250 wrote:

> Statements in the letter don't make sense. Why would she have to
> send the mortgage servicer a cashier's check? Maybe she's bounced
> checks in the past?

How to Play Supervalu: Buy Its Bonds

blemert, why don't you start by calling Schwab? Fidelity, Scottrade and E*Trade can all do it, so I am sure Schwab can, as well. When you call, you can get bonds that are not listed online and available inventory changes all the time. Check their bid and ask prices and if the spread is less than two points, put in your limit order at the ask price. Never do market! If you are worried about paying bigger concessions (commissions) and fees by not doing it online - don't. Like most everyone else in the business, Schwab probably charges the same for both broker assisted and online bond orders. Just ask first.

China on Sale, Discounted Pharmaceuticals

I sold my remaining CHN shares on Monday, May 19, 2009 at $19.99, realizing a net 15% loss on this position, accounting for all distributions, but ignoring commissions. (Small change relative to all my realized China related gains over the previous three years.) While I still have China related positions in a portfolio that was previously managed by a financial adviser, this CHN sale completes my exit out of China in this self-managed portfolio.

Being a socialist state, China can easily manipulate their economic barometer numbers and they have done so quite well to date. Fundamentally, however, China is stuck between a rock and hard place, having to stimulate not only their own economy, but also indirectly that of the US. I seriously doubt the possibility of the US coming out of this recession within a year. China will take even longer to recover. This line of thinking motivated my sale of remaining CHN shares.

P.S. I purchased additional CHN fund shares on December 15, 2008 at $19.71 (before it paid distributions).

Time to Start Nibbling on Corning

On Tuesday, March 24th I sold Corning Incorporated (GLW) at $13.49 / share for a gain of over 35% including dividends, but ignoring commissions, in under 5 months. I still see Corning as a market leader in its space and one of the few companies that will come out relatively strong out of the current downturn. On the other hand, the current recession is likely to last through at least 2010 and there should be plenty more opportunities to buy into quality stocks at lower prices once the current bear market rally looses steam. In the meantime, I am happy to increase my cash position at every opportunity this market presents.

How Scared Are Americans of Job Losses?

I concur with the above commentators, who mentioned that true unemployment figure is not accurately reported and that even the under reported official unemployment figure can shoot above 10% by the year end. (With all the money being pumped by our government into the largest employers like the banks and automakers, I don't actually anticipate unemployment breaching 10%.)

On the other hand, while actual job losses may not be so overwhelming, people so many people worrying about loosing their jobs is a real problem, because most who worry will curtail their spending... The worst thing about this situation is that short of US becoming a socialist country, there is nothing you can do about people worrying about job losses!

Indians Are Selling Gold - Is Their Thinking Right?

I envy people who have such perfectly functioning crystal balls that they can unequivocally state how much the various assets are going to be worth at "some" time in the future. Does your crystal ball also tell you that "some" countries will return to the gold standard?

When something's cooking with Citi (C), you may want to consult Roger Ehrenberg's Information Aribtrage. Converting the government's preferreds to common stock essentially concedes the stake "has lost its preference value," he says. "Yes, this is clearly a less shocking and dramatic step towards solving the banking crisis, but one filled with drama and poor outcomes, I'm afraid." C +18% to $1.95 premarket.

Not only is the government's approach less dramatic, but it is also less expensive. At least on the surface - current expenditure wise. They are truly hoping that it will work and that they will not need to spend the trillions to fund your proposed approach. We can only hope along with them...

Financial Collapse: A Lesson from the '20s

Great review - thank you. Wiley just sent me the recently published "The Great Depression of Debt, Survival Tecniques for Every Investor" by Warren Brussee. It is about the current debt problems and the way the author sees them resolving themselves. Obviously, the situation now is similar to the one described in the book, yet very different. (For example, the world is not on a gold standard.) Brussee is a serious statistician, so it will be interesting to read his perspective. I'll do a review once I am done reading the book.

A Whiff of Reflation in the Air, Part II

This article is a very positive view of the current state of affairs. In reality, inflation can start before the recession ends, just like it did in the 70s. We may not have a rerun of the Great Depression of the 30s, but a Great Stagflation appears imminent.