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Jake Huneycutt  

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  • My Bet On Seeking Alpha's Future [View article]
    Congrats Eli! You are more than deserving.

    And thank you to David for everything you've done. You've truly built a spectacular community here.
    Jul 3, 2015. 12:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How A Part-Time Uber Driver Can Buy A Tesla [View article]
    Excellent article.

    There's a good case that an Uber driver would be the most ideal economic user of a Tesla. I did an article a few years ago showing how the Prius wasn't technically a "superior economic choice" for most drivers unless gas prices rose above $6 per gallon. However, taxi drivers (and other heavy users) would be the exceptions.

    The economics of electric cars will almost certainly put the internal combustion engine into decline at some point. The gas savings is part of the equation, but the bigger point (and also the more difficult to calculate part) is the savings on maintenance. With electric cars, you really only have to worry about one thing: the battery. You don't have hundreds of things that can go wrong and need repair.

    My only question is whether electric cars will ever have range high enough to eliminate the internal combustion engine. If I'm taking an 800 mile round trip to Smokey Mountains National Park on a backpacking trip, will an electric car ever be viable for that? Or will people start to own second cars for the sole purpose of these sorts of long road trips, particularly to remote places?
    Jun 20, 2015. 02:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Is The Only Commodity I Want To Own Right Now [View article]
    Great article, but I disagree with the conclusions.

    Natural gas is the only commodity I find myself interested in, as well. Except, I would not invest in UNG; I'd focus more on producers. The problem IMO with investing in the underlying commodity is that there is a long-term trend towards innovation and lower-pricing. If you buy a high-quality gas E&P, you can still benefit if the price goes down or stays flat, so long as costs are falling as well.
    Jun 8, 2015. 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PepsiCo No Longer Cheap, But Still A Solid Retirement Stock [View article]

    Thanks for the comment.

    I mostly agree. $75 could happen in a recessionary scenario, but at that point, a lot of other stocks would become significantly more attractive as well. Another possible downside scenario would be one where interest rates rise and make dividend stocks look less attractive comparatively. Once again, though, that would mean many other investments would become more attractive, as well.

    Outside of those two scenarios, I don't see it as likely that PEP will fall to $75, but it's at least in the realm of possibility in a lagging growth scenario.
    Jun 3, 2015. 09:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Banco Santander: One Of The Best Banks In The World Sells At A Discount [View article]

    Excellent comment above.

    You hit many of the points I wish I had further elaborated on in my article. Santander has a great track record of scooping up cheap assets. They did it in Spain with the Eurozone Crisis. They might even be doing it in Brazil right now.
    May 31, 2015. 05:14 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Banco Santander: One Of The Best Banks In The World Sells At A Discount [View article]
    By the way, from Dec 1996 to Dec 2001, CIB lost 95% of its value. Going by your own standards of evaluation, you would've been arguing it was a horrendous investment in 2001 based on backwards-looking information.
    May 31, 2015. 05:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Banco Santander: One Of The Best Banks In The World Sells At A Discount [View article]

    In 2001, you would've been talking about how Colombia was one of the "awful" Latin American countries. From 1994 to 1999, Colombia's GDP actually declined. It devalued its currency twice. It still had major problems with drug cartels at the time and was mostly known for its cocaine and a Marxist-Leninist guerrilla movement, FARC.

    You can point out how great jumping onto CIB in 2001 would've been, but in reality, you'd be making the same backwards-looking arguments you are now against SAN.
    May 31, 2015. 04:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Banco Santander: One Of The Best Banks In The World Sells At A Discount [View article]

    There's one odd theme I've noticed in my 7 years of writing articles: the best investment theses are often the ones that encounter the most hostility. I got the same reaction to buying homebuilders in 2011, buying REITs in 2009, and with several individual stocks that were hated.

    Obviously, this doesn't mean every time an investment is dissed, it's a good one, but it does suggest a truism: the best investment ideas are often the ones that go against the grain. If everyone else is buying something, it's probably not a good deal. (I've also noted that my articles on stocks that received almost universal agreement have rarely ended up being my best investments.)

    I do have some fears about Santander, but IMO the worst of the macro stuff is largely priced in and there is considerable upside potential.
    May 27, 2015. 09:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Banco Santander: One Of The Best Banks In The World Sells At A Discount [View article]

    I'm not crazy about the valuations on the Chilean banks. Haven't looked into the Colombian ones. I'm not necessarily against those ideas, though.

    Regardless, you're taking on country-specific risks with those banks. Nothing wrong with this, but buying a "pure-play" in banking is different than buying a pure-play in another sector. You're betting on a country more than a bank in many cases.

    The rationale for buying Santander: it's one of the strongest Latin American growth plays and you're diversifying nation-specifc risks. You're also getting it at a price that assumes depressed results well into the future.
    May 27, 2015. 06:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Is Shaping Up To Be The Best Precious Metal Play Of The Decade [View article]
    Excellent and balanced article. Thanks for this, Caiman.
    May 26, 2015. 10:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Compass Diversified: 8.5% Dividend Yield, 10%-20% Undervalued [View article]

    I had no idea you meant before the Financial Crisis. Pretty much all investments in that entire sphere got hammered back then.

    CODI has done pretty well since March 2009. The stock has been overvalued at a few times, such as early 2011 and early 2014, but has been a pretty good bargain for most of that timeframe.
    May 22, 2015. 01:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Compass Diversified: 8.5% Dividend Yield, 10%-20% Undervalued [View article]
    Sorry link, but going to have to call BS here.

    Even if you bought CODI at the absolute most inflated price it's sold at in the past 3 years ($19.70 in January 2014), you'd still have no more than a 5% loss once you account for the distributions, if you had continued holding till today.

    The phrase "further under water" seems like extreme hyperbole. From peak to trough, you couldn't have possibly lost more than 15% unless you were day-trading or engaging in some sort of short-term speculation.

    If you're unwilling to risk a 15% short-term loss, you shouldn't be investing in stocks PERIOD! Even companies like Microsoft (MSFT) and Coca-Cola (KO) have more volatility than that.
    May 21, 2015. 04:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Compass Diversified: 8.5% Dividend Yield, 10%-20% Undervalued [View article]

    Thanks for the comment.

    One reason why CODI stays consistently cheap is that many investors don't understand it. I received your exact same criticism repeatedly three years ago. It's a criticism that tends to ignore the fact that CODI is essentially more like a private equity firm than it is a conglomerate (which many investors consider it).

    The difference: private equity firms buy and sell companies. If you're merely examining operating cash flows, you're ignoring unrealized capital gains. Hence, the fact that CODI's distributions are often aggressive relative to operating cash flows does not take into account gains / losses on the investment side.

    Even at that, operating cash flows exceeded distributions in FY 2014.

    A lot of people don't like the intangible assets. But it's sort of like criticizing a real estate firm for buying real estate. Compass' strategy has always been to acquire valuable brands and grow them to create value. This means that in a lot of acquisitions, they are purchasing a lot of "intangible value." This makes CODI more difficult to analyze, but it's also why they've been able to grow some of their portfolio companies significantly.
    May 20, 2015. 01:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coffee Could Roar [View article]
    While I don't claim to be an expert on coffee, I would surmise that higher coffee prices would be bad for SBUX.
    May 18, 2015. 02:01 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Antero Resources: Undervalued Assets, Great Risk-Reward Play [View article]

    I don't see much downside, except that if prices do rise, then it will take a few years to see the benefits of the improved pricing environment in AR's results. That's not the worst result and frankly, I prefer the greater certainty in results, as it helps de-risk the asset play a bit.
    May 12, 2015. 10:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment