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Jake Huneycutt  

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  • Austrian Dollar Bears Keep Getting It Wrong [View article]
    Not really fair to equate the entire Austrian School with Peter Schiff. Schiff is a snake oil salesman trying to sell his own book. That means perpetually trashing US assets, since his firm focuses on Europe and Asia.
    Mar 24, 2015. 03:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Reasons Zillow Is Still Extremely Overpriced [View article]
    Surbiton,

    Thanks for the great comment.

    The only thing I'd disagree with is Trulia being "undervalued" at the time of acquisition. I thought both firms were overvalued, but Trulia much less so than Zillow.
    Mar 8, 2015. 11:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Chilean Economic Miracle Is Over: Is Chile Still A Good Investment? [View article]
    Charles,

    Thanks for the comment. Though, I find it strange that you focus on my "ideological disposition" and then make a comment that is almost 100% political in nature.

    (1) I agree. I said as much in my article. Maybe you didn't read it?

    (2) You're missing the point. (a) Stock markets are driven by earnings, (b) higher corporate taxes create a headwind for Chilean corporate profits, and (c) stagnating corporate profits due to higher taxes likely result in a weak stock market. This is math and logic. The tax rate of the US in 2015 is irrelevant, which is why I pointed out parallels between the the 1930's in the US, with a rising tax environment in a weak economy.

    (3) For someone free of "ideological dispositions" such as yourself, you're going awfully far out of your way to make a lot of irrelevant political points. If you read my article, you might have noted that the decline of the Bolsa coincides with the decline of COPPER. There are about a million charts in the article on this subject.

    (4) Or John Maynard Keynes. Most Keynesians at the time blamed the Recession of 1938 on higher taxes passed under the Roosevelt Administration. Guess that doesn't fit neatly into a bifurcated worldview.

    (5) This is a meaningless statement, as the "Post-Clinton Era Democrats" mostly lost elections and never governed. Unless you have a few examples on the successful policies of the Kerry Administration.

    (6) Allende's policies were much more similar to communism. I detest socialism, too, but I can see a difference between Francois Hollande and Salvador Allende. If you want to pass Allende off as a regular Gerhard Shroder, go ahead, but his policies were more similar to Fidel Castro's than any run-of-the-mill Eurosocialist.

    Overall, your comment seems very politically driven.

    My case is that the declining copper market is a major headwind for the Chilean economy; one that might be theoretically offset by its free market policies, except that some of those policies are being reversed (particularly corporate tax policies), creating even more headwinds for the Chilean stock market.

    Bachelet may not have created the recession (you can't blame Chilean politicians for the decline of copper), but she's actively making it worse. This is very similar to the US in 1932 and the US in 1936. Her penchant for increasing spending and then increasing taxes creates greater risk for investing in Chile.

    The US market became attractive by the end of 1932, but this was because of the reversal of horrible monetary and trade policies in '33 and '34. Chile is not comparable on that front, because Chile's stock market is not beaten down by a trade war or monetary policy. It's beaten down by the copper market and rising taxes.

    Chile will become attractive again; but I'd be reluctant to invest given the numerous headwinds its facing: a declining copper market, higher tax rates, a political regime dedicated to bad ideas, and neighbors that aren't exactly in great shape either.

    It'll become attractive eventually, but I'd much prefer to sit out for now.
    Mar 7, 2015. 09:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Reasons Zillow Is Still Extremely Overpriced [View article]
    LW,

    Thanks for the comment. Very useful info.

    I decided to ignore the TRLA acquisition for the analysis, since it made things easier to put in perspective, and I don't think it changes the big picture all that much. But you are correct.

    Revenues doubling seems possible IMO. I just question whether the cash flows will follow.
    Mar 5, 2015. 08:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Reasons Zillow Is Still Extremely Overpriced [View article]
    raptorf22,

    So your argument for why Zillow is not overpriced:

    (1) It's in a big industry,
    (2) Some other unrelated companies in the past did well, and
    (3) A hypothetical company that may or may not be Zillow will make a lot of money at some point in the future.

    OK.

    Btw, Google did not go public in the 90's. They did, however, turn a profit in 2004 that is larger than Zillow's 2014 revenues.

    If you purchased AMZN in March 1999, it would've taken 10 years to break-even permanently on the investment.

    Price matters.
    Mar 5, 2015. 08:28 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • World Wrestling Entertainment: Intriguing Prospects, But Margin Of Safety Too Small [View article]
    Hey Steve,

    Thanks for the comment.

    I don't view "historical precedents" as all that relevant. WWE had a declining business model and it has radically shifted course. This is similar to what happened with the record industry and with DVDs (getting replaced by streaming). WWE's management was smart and saw the writing on the wall, launching the WWE Network. Nevertheless, it's no guarantee that they'll ever be back where they were a decade ago.

    As far as insiders exercising stock options, it's really not relevant. I'm more interested in seeing how insiders handle risk, rather than risk-free money.

    I like where management is going with the WWE Network,. I think it'll work out in the long-run, but that doesn't necessarily mean the stock is a good value at $17.
    Feb 25, 2015. 05:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jack In The Box: Great Company, Very Expensive Stock [View article]
    Michael,

    Very true in regards to "fast casual." It's getting to be insane.
    Feb 24, 2015. 09:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Cash Can Boost Long-Term Returns [View article]
    StudentOfLife,

    It's true that one critique of holding more cash is that it's "market timing." But I simply find it a weak critique. It's like saying "not buying houses at inflated prices during the Housing Bubble was market timing!" I find it a more convincing argument that when prices for an asset class are inflated, you shouldn't be buying nearly as much of it. It has little to do with "timing."
    Feb 17, 2015. 04:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Cash Can Boost Long-Term Returns [View article]
    neroden,

    By holding cash, you are giving yourself more liquidity to buy in if the prices fall. By selling equity puts, you are actively betting one the price of an individual security to fall. There's a pretty huge difference in terms of risk.

    Not saying that selling puts is a poor strategy. Merely that I don't see the 'selling puts' strategy as an option for anyone other than the most sophisticated investors. Whereas, I think the average individual can benefit from understanding cash management techniques.
    Feb 17, 2015. 04:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Most Underrated Book On Investment [View article]
    xtigerx,

    Thanks for the comment. I agree that investing is much less annoying. Poker is a good way to understand certain elements of investment strategy, but investing is such a better way to build long-term wealth. Not only is the "pie" expanding, but you have less arbitrary factors.
    Feb 16, 2015. 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Shale Is The New Swing Producer [View article]
    Excellent article, SU.

    Be interesting to see where prices go. I don't think oil can stay this cheap long-term, but I also don't think it's going anywhere back near $100.

    Also have to wonder if we'll see something similar to what happened with natural gas in 2008 (perhaps on a lesser scale). Many analysts thought gas prices would bounce right back, but the costs of production simply continued to fall in the long-run. There seems to be a bit of that happening with shale oil, as producers are finding ways to reduce costs.
    Feb 10, 2015. 05:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A History Of Investment Taxes In The U.S., Part I: 1913-1921 [View article]
    mismutual,

    The "S&P" data is based off of Robert Shiller's online historical stock data:

    http://www.econ.yale.edu / ~shiller/data.htm

    I couldn't say the precise methodology used, but there's a partial explanation at that link. So in a sense, this is not technically S&P data, but it's sort of an equivalent. Perhaps I should've specified that, but rarely get asked about it.

    (Note that the URL gets messed up in the comment, so I used a space after the .edu and before the ~ symbol.)
    Feb 4, 2015. 09:18 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taking A Look At Historical Natural Gas Prices [View article]
    Milkweed,

    I haven't looked at UPL much, but I agree it seems like one of the more interesting companies in the space.
    Jan 21, 2015. 11:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taking A Look At Historical Natural Gas Prices [View article]
    ClubFord,

    Thanks for (albeit misguided) comment.

    If you think it's a safe statement, maybe you should read up on the history of boom and bust cycles. There are periods where commodity sector companies have made poor investments for 8 - 15 years. I'm willing to wager that many of the oil service companies that look "cheap" now will continue to be poor investments for half a decade or more.

    My point in the comment is to say that I don't think the next boom cycle is right around the corner. But that natural gas has been subdued a long enough time, that it's worthwhile to keep an eye on it for the next several years.

    Being a value investor requires patience.
    Jan 20, 2015. 12:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Taking A Look At Historical Natural Gas Prices [View article]
    aggieoilman,

    Thanks for the correction.
    Jan 20, 2015. 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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