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James A. Kostohryz

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  • Beware Long-Term Damage From Stock Market Bubble Forming Now [View article]
    Six-oh:

    There are some people that believe that if someone predicted the market would go up and it did that they were "right." These same people believe that if someone predicted the market would go down and it didn't that the person was "wrong." These sorts of people will never understand what I just said or what I said before -- and they will never be successful in this business.
    May 18 08:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Long-Term Damage From Stock Market Bubble Forming Now [View article]
    Valueable:

    You clearly do not know what you are talking about.

    I called the bottom in March of 2009 and was massively bullish at that time. I turned bearish in July of 2011 at a major top (after having been massively bullish since late 2010) when the S&P was in the 1340s. I remained bearish until August of 2012 -- a fact which I have absolutely no regrets about. Since August of 2012 (over 200 S&P points ago), I have been saying the market would rise, and it has.
    May 18 03:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alan Abelson Died: Lives On Through A Generation He Defined [View article]
    Thanks, Yale.
    May 18 03:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Long-Term Damage From Stock Market Bubble Forming Now [View article]
    JP

    1. Lowered risk aversion = lower gold price in initial stage.

    2. Oil price not highly correlated to my thesis. More dependent on demand side on growth and China as well as changing supply fundamentals. I don't see oil as being the best play on my thesis, although it will do OK.
    May 18 08:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Long-Term Damage From Stock Market Bubble Forming Now [View article]
    Thanks, umbisam.
    May 17 05:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why A Stock Market Bubble Is Forming Right Now [View article]
    nkctl:

    You are not conceiving of things in the right way. Money does go "into "markets or "out of markets."

    You would benefit by reading this article:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Second, even though commodities and stocks are both generally considered "risk" assets, they have quite different fundamental drivers.
    May 17 05:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Long-Term Damage From Stock Market Bubble Forming Now [View article]
    Loon:

    I say a bubble is in the process of formation but that it is not yet fully formed. There is no contradiction in that.

    All bubbles start somewhere. It is clearly less useful to talk about it AFTER it is confirmed that it has already happened.

    The key is to recognize it as it is happening.
    May 17 03:23 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Long-Term Damage From Stock Market Bubble Forming Now [View article]
    Southgent:

    In this article, I explicitly talk about a 12 month time-frame. That is the time frame relevant for this article. Obviously, nobody can rule out asset sales for all time.

    Beyond 12 months, I do not think there is any visibility, therefore, I believe the foreseeable language was accurate.

    Cheers!
    May 17 03:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Long-Term Damage From Stock Market Bubble Forming Now [View article]
    Again, several fed officials, including Bernanke and Yellen have come out several times and essentially ruled out asset sales in the short term. They have been at pains to point out that there are several other mechanisms (e.g. fed funds and manipulating rate paid on reserves) for them to tighten and they have been pretty clear that asset sales are not in the cards any time soon.

    http://bit.ly/18QyNEm
    May 17 02:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Long-Term Damage From Stock Market Bubble Forming Now [View article]
    southgent 1951:

    Do a search on the internet on the subject. Bernanke and various other FOMC members have strongly suggested that asset sales are off the table -- at least for the foreseeable future. They have made it clear that they will do a number of things before they will resort to that.
    May 17 01:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Long-Term Damage From Stock Market Bubble Forming Now [View article]
    T Agn Yupi:
    I will address this prediction more specifically in the next article.
    May 17 01:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Long-Term Damage From Stock Market Bubble Forming Now [View article]
    This is not a bearish article, folks. It is telling you that stocks are likely to go significantly higher.
    May 17 01:27 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Long-Term Damage From Stock Market Bubble Forming Now [View article]
    bbro, I have not yet gotten around to writing about the business cycle. I will before the year is out. Cheers!
    May 17 01:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alan Abelson Died: Lives On Through A Generation He Defined [View article]
    Thanks for sharing that anecdote javajag.
    May 14 03:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alan Abelson Died: Lives On Through A Generation He Defined [View article]
    Thank you, newbeach.
    May 14 03:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
3,947 Comments
7,831 Likes