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James A. Kostohryz

 
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  • Why The Correction Didn't Become A Crash [View article]
    platonicbomb:

    I agree that from a technical perspective, confirmation of a truly bullish scenario requires small caps to recover nicely.

    So, yes, I think small caps are relevant and I am watching them.

    On the flip side, if they can confirm a bottom here, that is a bullish sign. Specifically, I'd like to see the Russell stay above 1100 or there abouts (on any pullback). So far, the are not lagging on this bounce, so I'd say that this is a positive.

    Having said all of that, I think that small caps don't necessarily have to outperform the S&P in order to confirm the broader trend, they just need to make solid progress on their own.
    Oct 31 01:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Correction Didn't Become A Crash [View article]
    Koshien:

    That was the end of 2011 when I said that. That had to do with my prediction that the situation in Europe would likely worsen and provoke a global crisis. At the very least, I did not think reward/risk was favorable at the time. I called off that bearish view in August of 2012.

    But if you review my writings in 2011, I thought stocks were quite reasonably priced then for those willing to ride out the long term.

    Today, the situation is different. I think the macro picture overall is favorable. However, valuations are not really favorable. So it makes for a complicated environment for investors.

    I'm not advising long term, passive or value-oriented to load up here. I am just telling people in what direction I think the market is most likely headed. But just because the market is probably heading higher does not mean people should be buying stocks like crazy right now.
    In the radio interview that I link to in the article, I explain in broad strokes, the sort of strategy that I think longer-term, and value-oriented investors should adopt.

    I will introduce a service soon where a practical application of this strategy will become more clear as I will put my income and total return portfolios out there for all to see.
    Oct 31 12:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bubble Stage Of This Bull Market May Be Nigh [View article]
    Hey Robert:

    How's that top-ticking prediction going fer ya? New all-time high today.

    Your comment here almost ticked the low, though. Cool.

    By the way, I have said many times that corrections are to be expected. My call is that the market will probably make significant new highs in the next 1-2 years -- possibly bubble-type highs.
    Oct 31 12:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Correction Didn't Become A Crash [View article]
    Rock:

    In both 2010 and 2011, after the lows, the market rose pretty much non-stop by over 10% before taking a breather. That qualifies as a v-shaped recovery.
    Oct 31 12:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Correction Didn't Become A Crash [View article]
    18214212:

    What do you object to in that statement?

    If you read the press accounts during the decline -- particularly the last 3 days, the media was flooded with stories by pundits saying that this was the start of a crash. Clearly the ST sentiment indicators (VIX and put premiums, for example) were signaling that many people were fearing this.
    Oct 31 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Correction Didn't Become A Crash [View article]
    Jerbear:

    Thanks for sharing that info on your part of the country. I have anecdotally been hearing things like this from various regions. All of that is validating what the aggregate national data is telling us.
    Oct 31 12:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Correction Didn't Become A Crash [View article]
    JoeMarfice:

    Sorry, I just realize that you were probably replying to Vooter. I was confused by the "OP"

    Thanks.
    Oct 31 11:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Correction Didn't Become A Crash [View article]
    Hi Joe:

    The link you sent me simply proves my point, so I am not sure where you are disagreeing with me.

    q3 2013 4.5%, q4 2013 3.5%, q1 2014 -2.1%, q2 2014 4.6%, q3 2014 3.5%.

    That is 4 out of 5 above 3.0% I could actually have said that 4 of the last 5 have been 3.5% or higher.

    Cheers!
    Oct 31 11:47 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Correction Didn't Become A Crash [View article]
    Jimvickery:

    Stock buybacks had absolutely nothing to do with the fact that the US economy has growth by more than 3% in 4 of the past 5 quarters. 3.5% in the most recent quarter.
    Now, regarding the impact of stockbuybacks on the stock market (as opposed to the economy): Large stock buybacks are a symptom of the excess liquidity discussed in this article. And, for reasons detailed in this article and others, this is a condition that is going to persist for many years.
    Oct 31 11:05 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Correction Didn't Become A Crash [View article]
    Joseph:

    I didn't say or imply anything like that.

    What I am saying is not at all difficult. Value is not the only driver of stocks; I think most people understand this. I have said elsewhere that stocks are expensive. To me this means that long-term and relatively inexperienced and inactive investors should probably be in a mode of gradually reducing exposure to stocks as the market rises as a matter. This is based on the sort of strategy that I believe such investors should be employing. For experienced traders and investors willing and able to be more active and take more risk, I think the market is likely to continue to present upside opportunities for the next 1-2 years. Depending on what sort of investor/trader you are, you should act accordingly.
    Oct 31 11:01 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Correction Didn't Become A Crash [View article]
    ts232:

    I think miners are probably decent value on a 5 year view. But I think that both gold and miners have another strong leg down coming.

    Cheers!
    Oct 31 10:52 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Correction Didn't Become A Crash [View article]
    Dale:

    Being over allocated to stocks at these levels is not "value investing" for sure. Having said that, whether a person buying stocks now is "gambling" is another story.
    Oct 31 10:51 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Correction Didn't Become A Crash [View article]
    Tunaman4u2:

    What YOU and others don't get at all is that QE is NOT the main driver of stocks. Never has been.

    OK, you're not angry. It just sounded that way. I withdraw the remark.
    Oct 31 10:20 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Correction Didn't Become A Crash [View article]
    Dale:

    You are correct. I have never suggested that stocks represent good value here. In a previous article, I outlined that stocks today have only rarely been more expensive.

    In this article I simply make the argument that they are likely to go even higher here based on the factors I cited.
    Oct 31 10:17 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Correction Didn't Become A Crash [View article]
    "Just because I speak the truth...."

    Speak the truth about what? You clearly spoke nonsense with respect to household liquidity. You made an accusation about "fabrication" when it is clear that you have no idea what the data on the subject is.

    Is that your idea of speaking truth?
    Oct 31 10:15 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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