Seeking Alpha
  • James A. Kostohryz
    Just took on some signifiant bearish exposure. Jan puts on $XLB, $XLB, $XLY, $IEZ, $GDX, $AMZN. Window for upside extension is closing.
    11/4/11
    Reply (15)
    • screamin187: I am with you James. Buying pressure is abating and follow through to the upside seems to be waning. The bear market rally is ending.
      11/4/11
    • Philip Fisher: Good move, James. That's a pro move.
      11/4/11
    • James A. Kostohryz: Readers should note that despite my bearish writings lately, this is my first major bearish position since covering my July shorts in Aug.
      11/4/11
    • screamin187: James, I do follow your articles and trades. I take heed to your positioning today and agree with your outlook. Good luck.
      11/4/11
    • Nicholas Pardini: How does this most recent vote of confidence affect your outlook? I am still bearish but we may see a big rally Monday and Tuesday.
      11/4/11
    • James A. Kostohryz: Rally monday? Maybe, maybe not. The whole program is flawed at its core. With respect to Greece, it can't pay even with the haircut.
      11/4/11
    • Philip Fisher: Let's not forget that we were supposed to have a huge rally after the debt ceiling was raised......and you know the rest of the story.
      11/4/11
    • James A. Kostohryz: Vote of confidence simply gives Papa a mandate to form a coalition government which he will not head. Everything is still in the air.
      11/4/11
    • James A. Kostohryz: The interim coalition must approve and implement the terms of the bailout that nobody wants to take responsibility for. It will be torture.
      11/4/11
    • Nicholas Pardini: Thanks for the reply. What about shorting financials? They seem to have the most to lose from a sovereign debt crisis/recession.
      11/4/11
    • James A. Kostohryz: Financials too cheap and have too much upside overnight risk. Can be up 10% or more overnight. I prefer risk/reward in cyclicals.
      11/4/11
    • Stock Junky: Hi james, What exactly triggered you taking bearish positions today? technicals? Certain piece of news? Action in currencies or credit mkts?
      11/5/11
    • James A. Kostohryz: I note that cylically sensitive stocks -- eg. basic materials and financials underperformed today on a beta adjusted basis. Not bullish.
      11/11/11
    • screamin187: I saw that as well James. Also noticed the cyclicals are in more pronounced downtrends than the indices. Emerging markets have chart damage.
      11/11/11
    • James A. Kostohryz: Correct. If you see the charts, retracements in the cyclical sectors are relatively weaker. From a bull perspective you want the opposite.
      11/11/11