Seeking Alpha
  • James A. Kostohryz
    Intiated significant short positions and long VXX with S&P at about 1340 based on overhead resistance and OB. I would stop out above 1355.
    2/3/12
    Reply (79)
    • Right Blend Investing, LLC: Are you fading this rally because you doubt the jobs report? Just curious.
      2/3/12
    • Erick McKitterick: I increased hedges using SDS calls. VXX interesting here w/ contango so severe here.
      2/3/12
    • James A. Kostohryz: Robert. Not based on jobs report. Simply selling into resistance in context of OB. I was actually expecting a good jobs report.
      2/3/12
    • Philip Fisher: The painful thing to do today is to short the market and long volatility. I am only half the man you are, James..I longed VXX this morning.
      2/3/12
    • Right Blend Investing, LLC: Thanks James. Kudos to you for expecting the strong jobs report (except for drop in participation rate to 63.7%). I enjoy your work-be well.
      2/3/12
    • James A. Kostohryz: Robert. I really don't know why consensus was so low. Hugely improving claims and good weather pointed to a strong one.
      2/3/12
    • James A. Kostohryz: Good trades don't always feel good. That is why one needs to plan in advance and execute despite what one is feeling at the moment.
      2/3/12
    • Right Blend Investing, LLC: A true reversal in the jobs picture is big news, and hard to digest. There is lots of denial out there, from cynics & entrenched bears.
      2/3/12
    • Right Blend Investing, LLC: The drop in labor force participation to below 64% is a cautionary signal, though.
      2/3/12
    • James A. Kostohryz: Robert: My bear thesis is based on Europe within a context of relatively resilient US. I see today's jobs number as consistent w/ my views.
      2/3/12
    • Josh Krause: Couldn't this have been pulling forward hiring due to the better weather? If so, that is going to screw with the seasonal adjustments
      2/3/12
    • Right Blend Investing, LLC: James: Thanks, that puts it in context, & makes sense to me. BTW, I loved your post on Tebow. I've had enough cynicism, & prefer inspiration
      2/3/12
    • Erick McKitterick: Easy to beat lowered expectations. IE look at AMZN. Jan 11 Q4 estimates were 1.40 Jan 12 Q4 estimates were 0.19 Q4 actual .38 Woohoo!
      2/3/12
    • Erick McKitterick: To lower estimates from 1.40 to .19 in less than a year to beat by .19 is pathetic imo
      2/3/12
    • EconStu: Initiated small short position and long VXX @ S&P 1344+- to follow along and learn. Understand your internet is ?? so will watch the 1355
      2/3/12
    • James A. Kostohryz: On unemployment. Note that break-even is 145K which is rate of organic growth of labor force (holding participation constant.)
      2/3/12
    • Josh Krause: Well if participation keeps hitting generational lows month after month, that has to be a great sign that everything is super in the economy
      2/3/12
    • Right Blend Investing, LLC: On unemployment: The reactions I've seen to the jobs report seem to reflect confirmation bias: "we hear what we want to hear". (Not u James)
      2/3/12
    • Josh Krause: The headline numbers are objectively encouraging. That is all a blind bull market high on CB liquidity needs to rally forward.
      2/3/12
    • Right Blend Investing, LLC: I was surprised by the jobs report and will reassess my assumptions. Most are using the jobs report to confirm their bullish or bearish view
      2/3/12
    • James A. Kostohryz: Impossible to interpret the labor report bearishly on net. Bottom line is total jobs are up. Participaiton rate and the u-rate are noise.
      2/3/12
    • Right Blend Investing, LLC: I am writing an article on this now. I'm just amazed how people use this report to prove BOTH the bear case and the bull case. Thanks!
      2/3/12
    • Josh Krause: James: That much is true. Gross adds were up. Massive surge in them being Part Time workers isn't inspiring but it was still gross adds.
      2/3/12
    • James A. Kostohryz: KK. Correct. Good is good. One can qualify the number a bit, but can't turn good into bad. Plus, look at the household #s. Really good.
      2/3/12
    • Josh Krause: My last concern is that the weather improving job numbers will have screwed with the seasonal factors and we will see that in future months
      2/3/12
    • Erick McKitterick: Breaking news Greece hours away from a debt deal. Oh wait how many times have we heard that.
      2/3/12
    • Nolesince87: Maybe small pullback in order, but this bull still has legs.. real drop may not happen until 1400-1500 range.
      2/3/12
    • Josh Krause: All pullbacks will be bought. All have been bought so far.
      2/3/12
    • Josh Krause: Also. Total jobs are not up. They are only up on a seasonally adjusted basis. MoM total number of employed civilians declined.
      2/3/12
    • Josh Krause: Seasonal adjustments during an abnormally warm winter will be off but that is likely to be ignored as it is conspiracy theory territory.
      2/3/12
    • EconStu: KK see http://trimtabs.com/blog enjoy!!
      2/3/12
    • Erick McKitterick: Huge EEM March put fly 3Million dollar trade 43-41-39
      2/3/12
    • Josh Krause: Yeah, saw it originally on ZH. 2.9 million less jobs in 2 months. Bullish as all get out.
      2/3/12
    • Right Blend Investing, LLC: X Oil field: Funny you should say that. I wrote an article that emerged out this thread http://seekingalpha.com/a/7ahh
      2/3/12
    • Right Blend Investing, LLC: My point is that bulls and bears both saw what they wanted to in the labor report.
      2/3/12
    • James A. Kostohryz: Seasonality is a reality, although estimation of it is an inexact science. That is one reason employment report has 200+ margin of error.
      2/3/12
    • James A. Kostohryz: But don't forget: That means job gains could have been 0. But also 400+, in line with household survey.
      2/3/12
    • James A. Kostohryz: x oil: I think Germany wants a Greek default and are pushing things in that direction.
      2/3/12
    • James A. Kostohryz: x oil: I would be interested in your comments on my 2 part article on Germany today.
      2/3/12
    • tompa: to x oil: what r u smoking?
      2/4/12
    • James A. Kostohryz: Thanks for your perspectives x oil. I appreciate it.
      2/4/12
    • lcd51: How difficult has it been for people to stay 100% in cash (as James recommends) in the face of the best month in a decade? Just curious..
      2/4/12
    • James A. Kostohryz: How difficult was it to be long in September? My premise is that is far preferable to be in cash in a bull than fully invested in a bear.
      2/4/12
    • James A. Kostohryz: Thanks, x oil. I particularly appreciate your German perspective.
      2/4/12
    • Q212J: A bit frustrating but not difficult at all.
      2/4/12
    • James A. Kostohryz: Q212: Congratulations. But my premise is that for most, it is easier to handle being in cash in a bull than being fully invested in a bear.
      2/4/12
    • James A. Kostohryz: It has been amply proven that the average investor really does not handle bear markets well and tends to sell.
      2/4/12
    • James A. Kostohryz: Sure, there is an impulse to buy late in a bull. But I believe that this impulse can be better managed by the average person.
      2/4/12
    • Stock Junky: JK, Thanks for great article(s). In my mind you are THE AUTHORITY on the European situation!
      2/4/12
    • Stock Junky: To those that have studied the situation, we know u will be correct and the crises is coming! Its been difficult, but u WILL be vindicated!
      2/4/12
    • Stock Junky: Can anybody give a translation of this: "Die Deutschen haben eine geistig" TIA
      2/4/12
    • Right Blend Investing, LLC: X oil Field: Thanks for the link to James article on Germany. Just read it, and agree.
      2/4/12
    • Right Blend Investing, LLC: LOL! And without taking ourselves too seriously. : ) Life is too short
      2/4/12
    • Right Blend Investing, LLC: Yes, he is.
      2/4/12
    • Funkengruven: All I can say is "Thanks to you guys"! This is why I read SA... been following James since I read first read his writings here. Again thanks
      2/4/12
    • James A. Kostohryz: x oil field. Its funny. I just posted the reparations issue in the discussion section of my article a little while ago.
      2/5/12
    • Stock Junky: Hi JK, This seems VERY LIKELY To be a SELL the NEWS event in Greece today! Your thoughts?
      2/6/12
    • Josh Krause: If a deal is announced there will be a rally. If default is declared we will likely see some downside but it will be short lived.
      2/6/12
    • Voidgap: James, Assuming profits, please pass along your criteria for profit taking on your shorts. Thanks.
      2/10/12
    • lcd51: James; nice call on the end of recent rally; especially the VXX which gained over 8.6% today. Wish I had followed you in. (No guts)
      2/10/12
    • James A. Kostohryz: Hi guys. Was away from internet all day today. Just got in. I will let everybody know when I close positions out that I have reported.
      2/10/12
    • EconStu: For student just learning could some targets be suggested. If @ trade desk would you have sold VXX on runup >20% from entry?
      2/12/12
    • James A. Kostohryz: Econ Stu: Initial ST target 32. Longer term looking for 50+
      2/12/12
    • Josh Krause: 1355 ES is now here. Prepare to cover.if.you are.going to honor the.stops. Central bank.mafia is winning again.
      2/14/12
    • EconStu: @KK James tweeted that his rule is to take no action until 30 mins after the open. Lets see what happens??
      2/15/12
    • Josh Krause: We'll see. I bought puts yesterday and didn't sleep well after the 9PM ramp job.
      2/15/12
    • James A. Kostohryz: FYI I did not stop out of positions. I have several rules about stops. One of them has to do with a stop loss level being "confirmed."
      2/15/12
    • James A. Kostohryz: The break above 1355 was not confirmed, so I am still in both the SDS and VXX positions
      2/15/12
    • EconStu: Thanks for the update and tweet this am : explain rules sometime for the Student!! VXX has helped in holding position
      2/15/12
    • Philip Fisher: Did AAPL just ring the top bell today? I think so. Time will tell.
      2/15/12
    • Erick McKitterick: James - I couldn't agree more. I would have closed all shorts today if we could have held the 1355-1360 range for more than 30 min!
      2/15/12
    • Erick McKitterick: AAPL butterfly I mentioned in my article today went from 3.50 to 5.20 bid in just under 3 hours. 500 March puts rocking.
      2/15/12
    • James A. Kostohryz: I just stopped out of both the VXX long and S&P short. The position netted a nice gain due to the VXX trade.
      2/16/12
    • James A. Kostohryz: I will be looking to reinitiate a ST short trade. But I'm out for now.
      2/16/12
    • Philip Fisher: Nice trade, JK. I got out of my TVIX this morning after the Greece/ECB "news" came out. This is a very difficult trading environment.
      2/16/12
    • Philip Fisher: One needs to protect profits at all costs. I don't remember seeing so many overnights moves in such a short period of time.
      2/16/12
    • EconStu: Thanks James. This is my first trading experience and was glad for a + outcome on small position. Appreciated riding the coat tails.
      2/16/12
    • Erick McKitterick: James join the club I was slapped out of FXE (profit), DB (not profit), SDS (almost even) in the blink of an eye. AAPL short worked well
      2/16/12
    • x oil -field: Mr.James A. Kostohryz you take care you are doing a great job all the the best to you.Mr.Miller as well & Mr.Short hope spelling is correct.
      2/25/12