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James Bibbings

 
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  • How to Trade When Government Controls Investment [View article]
    Deep Throat: No, heh, but it's touching. Forget the myths the media's created about the White House. The truth is, these are not very bright guys, and things got out of hand.

    Bob Woodward: Hunt's come in from the cold. Supposedly he's got a lawyer with $25,000 in a brown paper bag.

    Deep Throat: Follow the money.

    Bob Woodward: What do you mean? Where?

    Deep Throat: Oh, I can't tell you that.

    Bob Woodward: But you could tell me that.

    Deep Throat: No, I have to do this my way. You tell me what you know, and I'll confirm. I'll keep you in the right direction if I can, but that's all. Just... follow the money.

    You mean Government Sachs? Them? Inconceivable.
    Aug 7 05:11 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How to Trade When Government Controls Investment [View article]
    I am familiar with UCC but I am not an expert. If you are suggesting there is an orderly payout structure and that puts a hole in the theory I have considered this. The problem with UCC and creditor order is that throughout almost all bailouts the Government and our court system have not been following secured creditor laws. Take Chrysler or GM as prime examples; see also the link I included above regarding how the AIG bankruptcy was handled. Bond holders throughout the bailout period have been getting the shaft on almost every deal yet should not be; this is especially true when considering the unwinding of OTC and derivatives positions which have no bankruptcy consideration.

    If you are interested in this Karl Denninger writes fluently on the topic I suggest you check out his site called the Market Ticker and search it for bankruptcy information...market-ticker.denninge.../


    On Aug 07 04:22 PM Tommy Graspo wrote:

    > James are you in the know about UCC secured party creditor and all
    > that jazz.
    Aug 7 04:46 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • America's Healthcare Problems Are Making It Less Competitive [View article]
    Dearest tresspass,

    So what you're saying is that this statement:

    "In a nutshell, the government is looking to tax those making higher wages to subsidize the care of those making lower wages. They want to do this in order to grant health insurance to everyone and create a public health care option. Don’t take my word for it though, read up on Barack Obama’s initial proposal and see for yourself."

    Is indeed accurate?

    All I see above is a field of straw man arguments, which is interesting to me since you haven't read any of my solutions. What is it about the truth that makes you think I am against you? What if next week I propose a 1 party system? You'll probably never know because you're too angry to even consider options beyond those which you have already accepted to be reasonable.
    Jul 10 07:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • America's Healthcare Problems Are Making It Less Competitive [View article]
    Oh I can also tell you that we don't spam or sell our mailing list...I manage it and put it together so after two seconds you'll have acess to the last half of the article. Here's a teaser excerpt....

    ...As a country we should be asking our doctors what is required, what is necessary, and what is most efficient for getting well. We should not be asking “Does my insurance cover that?” and knowing deep down that a “no” response means you won’t take the service while a “yes” means you will....
    Jul 10 02:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • America's Healthcare Problems Are Making It Less Competitive [View article]
    My solutions will be available via Commodity News Center's news letter to be published Tuesday of next week. You can sign up for that at:

    www.commoditynewscente...

    Seeking Alpha cut the last portion of my article, it is available in my instablog at this time though and reads:

    The Right Solution

    There is a very feasible multipronged solution to the healthcare issues listed above. That answer does not lie in Barack Obama’s proposed solution. It also does not lie in any of the proposed solutions which have been brought to the table in recent memory. The proposed solution must come from the very core of America’s great foundation. I know what that solution is and I’m going to tell you about it in “America’s Sick Part II” which will be found exclusively in the CNC weekly newsletter going out July 14th, 2009. To sign up for this free weekly commodities and market news letter follow the link, fill out the form, and you’ll be on your way. Since I put the newsletter together I can assure you we do not spam or sell our subscriber names to third parties. All my best, stay healthy, and as always thanks for reading.

    Jul 10 02:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China, Iran, Nigeria, and Oil [View article]
    Regarding the CIA Fact Book reference

    The reason for it's inclusion (that most failed to recognize) is that the figures are from the period of global peak consumption 2007. They (CIA) also have the most comprehensive and easy to reference figures to compare across countries. In my illustration I was showing the disparity between Chinese consumption and US consumption at the peak. We know that peak consumption occurred in 2007 from the IEA's current figures; a more reasonable source no doubt. Those same figures indicate that from 07' until now, global consumption has fallen more than 7.1%, the steepest fall in 60 years. So showing the gap at the peak was intended to make the China/US disparity look even more pronounced today in a period of lower consumption.

    Sure oil demand is up in China according to figures from the IEA; I reconcile this with my thoughts on speculative lending on commodities by the Chinese and resource stockpiling. Although that may be true, the IEA gives no discerment to genuine demand increases and what I would consider "artificial demand" increases as is the case here with Chinese speculative buying. Certainly an increase in purchasing indicates a rise in demand, that does not however mean this demand is "real" in the sense that China's increase in purchasing is for near term consumption...this is another conversation and a different article all together.

    I hope that clarifies the CIA figures used above.
    Jun 29 12:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Blowing Bubbles (Part I) [View article]
    " Keynesian" I can't say what is meant by that. Everyone already knows that it's going to be touch and go (even if they don't admit it). So what are you offering here? "

    I don't always post identically to Seeking Alpha, nor do I always post everything I write at this website. I have this excerpt included within the article hosted at my home site commoditynewscenter.com in the Economic Bibb section:

    "So What's The Solution?

    It's time to abolish the Federal Reserve and stop interest rate micro management. It's time to get the state out of the market as soon as possible and let those who made poor choices fail for doing so. The current government strategy of pumping money into the system will not and cannot work forever; especially when there is no new $10+ trillion (The estimated size of housing) bubble to be blown. As the chart above and economic facts suggest, our time on ending this madness is running out. Support your leaders who understand this and check out Campaign For Liberty to support them in congress. If you want to learn more about the Austrian school of economics and why Keynesianism is off visit Ludwig Von Mises Institute."

    Hyperlinks are included at my site, the solution and the add is to Abolish the Fed.


    Jun 23 09:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Swine Flu: Don't Believe the Hype [View article]
    Pay attention to the words...for it is why they are written ;-)

    1. "As with the Bird Flu, (which in my novice opinion was worse economically because it was passed from birds to people and then from people to people)" - Here the key word is economically; since this was a story about getting long Hogs and the unwind of the scare in the markets. Bird flu resulted in the extermination of millions of "farmed" birds. This will not wipe out Hogs nor any other animal unless the country is utterly uninformed like Egypt is/was.

    2. The normal "Plain Jane" flu has a typical hospital mortality rate of between 5 and 10% depending on the strain of the virus and in the most severe seasons can get as high as 15%. - On this one the key words are "Hospital Mortality Rate" not overall mortality rate. I felt this appropriate seeing as anyone who has swine flu and is in the count must have been hospitalized to be included in the death and or infection figures.
    Apr 30 12:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Trying to Break the Euro? [View article]
    Also a valid point regarding Europe being the largest trade partner to China; I do realize this. Note that I didn't say the US was largest here, just that it was very critical to China. The gap between the EU and America with regard to trade partners is next to zero in relative terms; this is why China choosing in a time of chaos makes sense based on the "tools" ideal from above and the current state of China's reserves.

    Again, it is in fact true that the "Euro Zone" is the largest purchaser of Chinese goods at this time. However, if you look at it on a per country basis the stronger EU members make up the lions share of the purchases. The dismantling of the Euro as a currency would not destroy the larger members, and would further validate China's dollar holdings. There is even evidence to me that some of the EU members aren't entirely confident in the Euro currency to this day. If you have traveled to Europe recently (as I have) you'll note that all of the "strong" member countries still allow for the use of and acccounting for (there is a local exchange rate) of their home currencies. I believe they are doing this so that going back to them would be possible if required.

    Although I feel the break up of the EU is unlikely, the debt markets undoubtedly must be fixed; if George Soros among others see this it has to be a near certainty. Regarding France; If I was China I would not be wasting my time working with them right now. I'd be more concerned about the trouble brewing within my neighbor to the North and it's now seperate "affiliate" countries. If the Russian old world collapses, as many anticipate, it will make little difference what China wants to do regarding the Euro because the choice will have been made for them before they have a chance to pick sides. Europes exposure to the old Soviet Block is so large it will take a miracle for the European Central bank to hold it together if those countries come unglued.

    Lastly, keep in mind that I am speaking from the perspective that governments should be pro-active rather than re-active. China must choose lest it be chosen for; to me the US seems to be a better choice, hence the theory.
    Feb 26 10:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Trying to Break the Euro? [View article]
    Dave Said: "You seem to overlook the fact that the West is quite capable of screwing up on its own without any help from the Chinese who already have emissaries going from the USA begging for handouts.

    The Chinese will be concerned about the security of their US dollar holdings, but getting in even deeper is probably not their preferred option. They could always make the Americans borrow in Euros or Yuan"

    The West is indeed quite capable of creating it's own problems, however it does have a unified debt market and Europe does not. Hence I think forcing the US to borrow in Euro's makes little sense. Until the debt issue is fixed (either by law or by market force) Europe doesn't even have the approriate "tools" to handle it's multi-nation currency.

    (On this point I personally would argue that central bank intervention and the idea of "tools" is unsound and needs to be re-thought (ie the Federal Reserve/Fractional Model), however, under our current Keynesian dominated global economic paradigm this thought is not mainstream and will probably not be implemented in the near term. I digress, read my blog economicbibb.blogspot.... if you'd like to learn more; I digress)

    So if I were to support the notion of a Central Bank "needing" those "tools" I would have serious doubts about the validity of the Euro Currency in the current economic crisis and would never want to hold reserves in that denomination if I was in charge.

    However, that being said, I do see the point about not wanting more Dollars, yet fail to agree. If the world is collapsing you want your money with your biggest trade partners and need to find economic allies. China, regardless of whether it likes it or not, made this choice long ago and is now fighting with the US to retain economic viability. If you consider the GDP of all nations, China by pulling out of the US, would decimate both North America and ultimately the world.

    The idea of borrowing in Yuan is more interesting, I'll have to consider that further. My initial thought would be that if the US were to do so China couldn't artificially manage it's exchange rate any longer and would become significantly less competitive. Also by doing this Demand for Yuan would no doubt sky rocket.
    Feb 25 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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