James Bibbings

China, Iran, Nigeria, and Oil

Regarding the CIA Fact Book reference

The reason for it's inclusion (that most failed to recognize) is that the figures are from the period of global peak consumption 2007. They (CIA) also have the most comprehensive and easy to reference figures to compare across countries. In my illustration I was showing the disparity between Chinese consumption and US consumption at the peak. We know that peak consumption occurred in 2007 from the IEA's current figures; a more reasonable source no doubt. Those same figures indicate that from 07' until now, global consumption has fallen more than 7.1%, the steepest fall in 60 years. So showing the gap at the peak was intended to make the China/US disparity look even more pronounced today in a period of lower consumption.

Sure oil demand is up in China according to figures from the IEA; I reconcile this with my thoughts on speculative lending on commodities by the Chinese and resource stockpiling. Although that may be true, the IEA gives no discerment to genuine demand increases and what I would consider "artificial demand" increases as is the case here with Chinese speculative buying. Certainly an increase in purchasing indicates a rise in demand, that does not however mean this demand is "real" in the sense that China's increase in purchasing is for near term consumption...this is another conversation and a different article all together.

I hope that clarifies the CIA figures used above.