James Cullen

Five Reasons RIMM Will Continue to Fall

I did an analysis that was awfully similar to this a year ago when RIMM was around $100. I got plenty of nasty emails, laughed at, mocked, and had mean things said about my mother. I have no opinion on RIMM at present, but hope you'll stick by your convictions... after all, without the people who still believe, how would this fall even more?

Which Is the Better Investment, Apple or Research In Motion?

No mention of valuation?

Last Year's Leaders Have Become This Year's Laggards

People on this site are biased against AAPL? I might be the only person who has written negatively about AAPL, and I get hit with 50 comments calling me some variant of an ass, idiot, etc.

Some things just get overpriced.

Dow Ignores Top Tech Stocks at Its Own Peril

You could never add Berkshire to the DJIA and keep it price-weighted...

A Rare Buying Opportunity in the Tech Sector

If another offer was to be made for YHOO, it could just as easily make MSFT go down because they'll likely raise their bid.

Contrary to Some Opinions, Apple Doesn't Do Loss Leaders

>>>"4 million in 2 quarters, projected out, actually gets you to 12 million by the end of 2008-- well above 10 Million target. Recession or not, I think they'll beat 12 Million."

How can you use a simple linear model to make the 12 million prediction, given how front-weighted those sales were around launch date? It's like a movie premiere - opening weekend is best...

What if You Could Buy Apple Pre-iPhone?

Blah123 is so right... I would know, I've criticized AAPL on the basis of valuation.

Even With Apple, Price Will Follow Value

Uncle Miltie: "Apple does not "play games with guidance". They provide very conservative guidance that they will meet, and do not give updates at any other time than during quarterly reports. The only games are the ones being played by analysts who speculate what the actual earnings will be."

Exactly my point. I don't want to extrapolate things too far, but how is guidance that is all but assured to be beat helpful in any way?
Along those lines, the question with many of the financials is whether or not they are taking "kitchen sink" writedowns in order to look better in the future... is that really any different from what Apple is doing?

Also, it's important to note that (as you said) the analysts are speculating on earnings, and thus speculating on price targets, because this is a speculative stock. Recognize it for what it is.

Apple's Leopard Not as Error Free as It Should Be

Earlier this year? Try three weeks ago. It was my article, I would know.

Also, I suggest looking at this guy's bio:
Additionally, Thomas Hawk is the Chief Evangelist for the Photo Sharing Site Zooomr.

Over-Hyped Apple Has No Real Value

I don't control the title. I'm assuming my suggested title - "Why AAPL Isn't a Good Value" - just wasn't exciting enough. But who really cares about the title? Read the actual content of the article I wrote, and try to internalize it enough to get past your own confirmation-bias-ridd... mind.

Over-Hyped Apple Has No Real Value

Make sure you differentiate market share growth from total top-line revenue growth, too often I feel people make those two synonymous when talking about AAPL.
If you pull up last year's 10-K, you'll see that Mac revenues (that's both laptops and desktops) came to 38% of total sales... if Apple doubles the market share Mac has, it will grow revenues by about 40%, not 100%.
See the difference?

And note that nowhere in that article did I say Apple is not growing. My primary example shows Apple >quintupling< sales in >ten years< to >$110 billion<. Did anyone read that part, or did you draw your conclusions from the, ahem, title?

Apple: Sell the News, For Now - Barron's

Regardless of what the iPhone does, how can anyone state right now that Apple is a proven, reliable company? They have had one hit product in more than two decades of business. How does that make them a good one to believe in?

Some old wisdom to consider:
"The chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low-quality securities at times of favorable business conditions." - Benjamin Graham

Emotion: The Enemy of Every Investor

Tommo,
No matter how much you love Apple, can you honestly say the company is successful? By my count, putting out one good product in over two decades doesn't make you a success, it means you threw enough darts and something eventually stuck. The only Apple product I see people buying is the iPod - that 5% market share in computers certainly means people aren't flocking to Macs... feel free to correct me if I missed any of Apple's other amazing hit products.
I also find it amazingly hypocritical that you try to invalidate Mr. Sullivan's arguments against AAPL on the grounds he has a negative bias, while you push your own obviously biased views.

Apple's iPhone Rocks the Cell Phone Industry

Tommo_UK is the moderator of a Mac forum, I remember him coming around here to make claims about Apple taking over the world, etc.
I find the "beachhead" remark interesting because the iPod was supposed to allow Apple to expand into the PC area, and they still have a single digit market share there. Granted, they have seen good growth, but single digits is still single digits. I think everything (and then some) is already reflected in Apple's stock price, and the overly bullish sentiment that surrounds the stock would worry me if I was long.

Apple's iPhone Rocks the Cell Phone Industry

"Our survey of 3,489 Alliance members reveals exceptionally high levels of excitement surround the iPhone’s upcoming release. Nearly one-in-10 respondents (9%) say they are likely to buy the new iPhone once it becomes available in June. Another 7% say they are likely to buy the iPhone as a gift for someone else.
These are big numbers, especially when you consider the worldwide market for cell phones is around 1 billion and Apple’s goal is to get to 1% of that market in year one – which would mean selling about 10 million phones.
Thanks to our early adopters of the ChangeWave Alliance we are able to see with stark clarity how the Apple iPhone is set to rock the cell phone industry.

This article summarizes the results of a recent ChangeWave Alliance survey. The Alliance is a research network of 10,000 business, technology and medical professionals who spend their everyday lives working on the front line of technological change."

Doesn't the survey base - which sounds like well-to-do professionals naturally inclined to buy an expensive product like the iPhone - imply a huge bias in your numbers that doesn't seem to be accounted for? I have a feeling that global market of 1 billion includes very few people who are like your apparent sample base... I think you are too aggressive in extrapolating a data point that seems inherently biased, but I would love to hear evidence to the contrary.