James Cullen

25 Good Short Candidates

Mr. Hamidi,
I never understood the logic of "if it has gone up already, it must be good." Essentially you are saying because a stock (like CVS) is more expensive, that makes it better. CVS is bad at $36, so at $39 I believe it would be worse...

25 Good Short Candidates

MDC,
I too would assume there is no connection either between one month's performance and fundamental factors, but doing the monthly count is purely for fun - the real reason is to continue to build a database that I can use to judge six month, one year, two year performance. I wouldn't be surprised if there was something to be said for F/A though; although it might be a dying breed with the ultra-margin hedgies out there with black-box models, don't discount it.

Re: General Electric, I tried to make it clear that I personally wouldn't be short, but it is "suggested" by my model. I'm the guilty party for programming it, but I also know why GE is there - the model is doing its job. My usual refrain for a stock like GE appearing is that the real value-added work is to figure out the best of the bunch... which I see as stocks like CVS and ERTS.

25 Good Short Candidates

MDC,
All of the data is fundamental; I update long and short once per month and judge them accordingly, but I think one could extend each hypothetical portfolio 6-12 months and still do fine.

As a rule, I don't filter picks - but I was torn about leaving GE in there because I agree with many of the things you are saying. At the same time, the company just doesn't excite me enough to say I would buy it either - I'd prefer to grab more focused companies in areas I like than get all the diversification that is GE.
I can't argue the past with ERTS or ATVI, but I can say that with ERTS, their development seems primarily geared to Sony's platform, followed by Microsoft. Nintendo is far in the distance in terms of product offerings and hence revenues, but with the Wii outselling the PS3 I can't see how that translates positively for ERTS in game sales. PS2 was the dominant console for a long time, and many game developers certainly benefitted from that because Sony wasn't focused on game development and let others control that space. That just isn't the story with Nintendo...

Thanks for the comments.