James Cullen

Doug Kass's Killer Shorts - Barron's

Isn't it possible that his #2 point - avoid stocks already heavily shorted - precluded him from shorting many of the most troubled companies?

I'm not saying it worked this time, but in general he seems to be looking for a "variant" view (he often uses that term)... in this case, where there's minimal chance of a squeeze. Part of it is risk management....

Q1 Market Review, Part II: Dow Industrial Components

uman,
Your comment must have come as I was typing my last replies. As I said to Roger, part of this is to get a quick cross-section of large cap equities and judge their relative attractiveness in terms of expected future returns. Another reason is to set up a baseline comparison between operating company results, and financial company results. Overall, I hope this will add context to the three questions I'm addressing - are there good businesses to invest in, do they have staying power (operationally and financially), and have investors already bid good returns up-and-away...
As for what I have, a split between the senior debt of Primus, a CDS-seller, a convertible issue from a movie theater REIT (Entertainment Properties), and a sliver of Primus equity... and about 15-20% cash. Much more focused on small/illiquid opportunities, given the dollars I'm working with relative to institutions.

Q1 Market Review, Part II: Dow Industrial Components

Roger,
Fair to an extent, but I won't agree entirely. I try to balance asset class attractiveness with bottoms-up selection, and I've put time into developing some coherent (or at least consistent) way to measure risk premiums in bonds vs. stocks. So far, this blend has worked pretty well.

Cetin,
Thanks. I don't like to lump myself into categories of optimist/pessimist, though, I try to be a realist...

American Express Calls Investment Banks' Bluff

A few of you need to lay off the Visa kool-aid. Just because Visa (and MA) don't hold debt, doesn't mean they aren't dependent on the ability and willingness of their issuing banks to continue lending.

The Dow, Housing, Oil and Credit Cards

Sorry, I posted this on my site about two days earlier - thought Bespoke's graphs showed an interesting divergence between price and usage.

The Financial Light at the End of the Tunnel?

I don't think you should lump American Express in with the credit card "loan sharks" - they cater to the affluent, and aren't like a Capital One...

What Tuesday's Wild Trading Says About Housing, Financials

Tony,
I think a buyout is a possibility, but not enough that you should be buying the stock only looking for a quick pop on such news.

My figures are similar enough to Morningstar's that I'll say I agree with them - my last estimate for fair value is about 10% above theirs, and I think USG is a good stock to buy now for long-term investors.

Dow Ignores Top Tech Stocks at Its Own Peril

You could never add Berkshire to the DJIA and keep it price-weighted...

Analysts See Dow Rising Sharply in 2008

The major flaw in this analysis is that it assumes all stocks will be at their price targets at the same time...

My 2008 Market Prediction

Good stuff.