James Cullen

Why This Is No Time for Buy and Hold

Exactly -- it's a cheap ad. Just look at the end of the article. It's conspiracy talk, conspiracy talk, "use my system."
How did everyone else miss this?


On Jul 20 04:17 PM speeddaimon wrote:

> Bah,
>
> This whole article is just an overblown advertisement for some half
> assed BS trading system. Hell, check the links below his picture
> on the article, the asshat can't even spell his own website description
> right. singals?
>
> Credibility = gone for you.

Q1 Market Review, Part II: Dow Industrial Components

uman,
Your comment must have come as I was typing my last replies. As I said to Roger, part of this is to get a quick cross-section of large cap equities and judge their relative attractiveness in terms of expected future returns. Another reason is to set up a baseline comparison between operating company results, and financial company results. Overall, I hope this will add context to the three questions I'm addressing - are there good businesses to invest in, do they have staying power (operationally and financially), and have investors already bid good returns up-and-away...
As for what I have, a split between the senior debt of Primus, a CDS-seller, a convertible issue from a movie theater REIT (Entertainment Properties), and a sliver of Primus equity... and about 15-20% cash. Much more focused on small/illiquid opportunities, given the dollars I'm working with relative to institutions.

Q1 Market Review, Part II: Dow Industrial Components

Roger,
Fair to an extent, but I won't agree entirely. I try to balance asset class attractiveness with bottoms-up selection, and I've put time into developing some coherent (or at least consistent) way to measure risk premiums in bonds vs. stocks. So far, this blend has worked pretty well.

Cetin,
Thanks. I don't like to lump myself into categories of optimist/pessimist, though, I try to be a realist...

Cramer's Call: Another Rally Top Indicator?

Greg,
I suggest you go check your definition of a "bottom" - as Stone Fox points out, October was hardly the bottom. Cramer makes plenty of picks, and some of them turn out to be wrong, but picking on the "sell everything" call in particular is just bashing...

Backwards Looking Leads to Bottom Blindness

Mad Hedge Fund Trader,
I'm completely in agreement - those are the kind of concerns I have, which keep me "close to the exit," as you say. Raising cash from 15% to 25% or so...
Hopefully I'll have time to more fully explore those negatives in another article soon.

Crowded Trades, Negative Sentiments and Market Bottoms

Thanks for the comments.

What I'd say is important re: sentiment at bottoms is the actual sentiment at bottoms - i.e. not two weeks and 20%+ later. At the very least, this has been a decent trade from the long side, although I'm very willing to sell into it and take some risk off.

The Shedlock-Schiff Affair: A Chronicle

I don't know why Mish gets all the credit for pointing out Schiff's strategy has been a dog. I've been saying that for months.

And while we're talking about sour grapes, I imagine Mish's outrage is due to Schiff getting all the attention, while Mish had a similar view but actually seems to have made money off it.

Four Commonsense Clues to a Genuine Market Bottom

One question, one comment re: #2...

Are you measuring this by net book value, or net tangible assets?

And, regardless, part of the bottoming process is that there will be companies you could make a lot of money taking private, but that won't happen because of the lack of credit. Eventually the values will build up, the system will delever, and then value vultures will step in and create a bottom.

At least, that's how I see it...

The Dow, Housing, Oil and Credit Cards

Sorry, I posted this on my site about two days earlier - thought Bespoke's graphs showed an interesting divergence between price and usage.

What the Charts Tell Us (Or Don't)

Hahahahaha

Only Tax Cuts Will Work in the Long Run

How about balancing the budget and getting rid of the $9.2 trillion ($9,200,000,000,000) in government debt before we slash taxes permanently?

Analysts See Dow Rising Sharply in 2008

The major flaw in this analysis is that it assumes all stocks will be at their price targets at the same time...

What Happens When Globalization Goes Bad?

How can you categorically say globalization is bad, unless you take a frighteningly simplistic view of things?

Look at the Business Behind the Stock Price

>>>"And if we don't? Then who cares what your stocks are worth? Your money won't be worth a damn anyways!"

Beautiful.

Is the Market Misreading the Fed?

The benefits? Try "some temporary equities market exuberance."
Just because you can think more than three months out, doesn't mean others do.

Good article.