Seeking Alpha

James Emerson

 
View as an RSS Feed
View James Emerson's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Trading Update: Tanzanian Royalty Exploration,TRX collapsing [View instapost]
    The company has zero reserves. There is a distinction between reserves and resources. The following disclosures are from TRX's annual report filed with the SEC.

    "All of the Company’s properties are in the exploration stage and no proven mineral reserves have been established."

    "Cautionary Note to U.S. Investors Concerning Estimates of Mineral Resources U.S. investors are cautioned not to assume that any part or all of mineral resources in these categories will ever be converted into mineral reserves."

    "A Mineral Reserve is the economically mineable part of a Measured or Indicated Mineral Resource demonstrated by at least a Preliminary Feasibility Study. This Study must include adequate information on mining, processing, metallurgical, economic, and other relevant factors that demonstrate, at the time of reporting, that economic extraction can be justified. A Mineral Reserve includes diluting materials and allowances for losses that may occur when the material is mined."

    The companies mineral resources are either not mineable as is the case with Kigosi or not demonstrated to be economical to mine as is the case with Buckreef.
    Dec 21, 2014. 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The CEO Of Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Leaves Questions Unanswered [View article]
    Bloomberg didn't report it. Mr. Sinclair made that statement in a Press Release. My analysis of the company has been very accurate and my recommendations have been very profitable.
    Dec 20, 2014. 02:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The CEO Of Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Leaves Questions Unanswered [View article]
    Here is the link to the Fusion Telecom article. http://seekingalpha.co...

    One thing about recommending short ideas is that company managements can adapt to changing business conditions. The trade was still very profitable.

    In evaluating my track record, you might want to look at how accurate my predictions and analysis have been with respect to TRX.
    Dec 20, 2014. 02:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tanzanian Royalty Exploration: The Next Tanzanian Gold Producer [View article]
    I would suggest the you actually read the SEC filing related to the Convertible Note offering. Sinclair has not received $9.2 million in cash. The maximum initial draw from escrow is $2.75 million to be reduced by the a factor calculated from the lowest Volume Weighted Average Price until Dec. 24th divided by $0.85. The lowest VWAP to date is $0.61. The initial draw now stands at slightly less then $2 million. Of that draw amount TRX is required to hold $750,000 as restricted cash. That leaves only about $1,250,000, which is further reduced by payment of $81,000 of initial expenses.

    In order to have additional funds released at the end of a quarter, TRX has to produce $1,050,000 of free cash flow for that quarter. An additional condition is that the daily VWAP for the previous 20 days must be above $0.60. Since the company hasn't even received the CIC processing plant to produce gold, it is inconceivable that it will produce over $1 million in free cash flow by March 31. With the stock trading in the low sixty cent range now, the minimum VWAP condition is going to be close to impossible to meet.
    Dec 20, 2014. 02:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Tanzanian Royalty Exploration To Raise $10 Million ($9.2 Million) Via Convertible Senior Notes [View article]
    Mr. Kramer-Miller, You may want to read through the SEC filings on Dec. 15 related to this offer. The lowest VWAP so far is $0.617 which means the initial draw is reduced to just under $2 million. Of that, TRX is required to hold $750,000 as restricted cash.

    For the Escrow Agent to release any additional amounts. The company must achieve a milestone threshold of free cash flow of $1,050,000 on each of the fiscal quarters ending on March 31, 2015, June 30, 2015 and September 30, 2015. Any release is conditioned a minimum daily VWAP of $0.60 on the Milestone Payment Date and on each of the twenty (20) consecutive Trading Days immediately preceding the Milestone Payment Date. So I doubt that the company will ever have more than $1,250,000 available to use. A portion of that amount will be used to pay the cash interest due.
    Dec 18, 2014. 05:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The CEO Of Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Leaves Questions Unanswered [View article]
    Here is my track record on the short side. Entry is the open immediately following publication. I will post the long side later today. Draw your own conclusions. Every selection a big winner!
    Symbol Entry Low Date ROR High Date Max Pain
    FSNN $5.95 $3.10 11/06/14 48% $7.15 06/12/14 -20%
    GME $20.77 $15.32 08/02/12 26% $26.20 10/28/11 -26%
    IOC $45.00 $31.18 10/04/11 31% $48.77 09/30/11 -8%
    LEAP $9.34 $4.28 08/07/12 54% $11.14 02/27/12 -19%
    SIRI $1.99 $1.27 10/04/11 36% $2.33 07/15/11 -17%
    TRX $6.98 $0.58 12/16/14 92% $6.99 06/10/11 0%
    TRX $1.08 $0.58 12/16/14 46% $1.10 12/01/14 -2%
    Dec 18, 2014. 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Playing Mine Games, Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Is About To Fold [View article]
    It is unlikely that this company survives beyond March 2015. If you read the SEC filing related to the recent debt issuance http://1.usa.gov/1z81pI7 , you can see that the company is going to have available less than $1 million from the initial draw. Additionally, the company is not going to meet the free cash flow requirement of $1,050,000 for the period ending March 31,2015 to draw any more funds under this agreement. Finally, it is questionable that the company will meet the minimum VWAP over the trailing 20 days for the same period to be permitted to make a draw. TRX might not even meet the $0.41 lowest VWAP test to be able to make the initial draw.
    Dec 18, 2014. 08:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The CEO Of Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Leaves Questions Unanswered [View article]
    Of course. The technical reports are particularly interesting. Here are some great quotes from the Buckreef one:

    " No mining study has been completed for the project based on the 2014 mineral resource estimate." TRX undertook this low cost mining venture without performing a Preliminary Economic Assessment.

    page vii
    "Each modular plant is a self-contained unit comprising a 30,000tpm crushing/milling, gravityCIL and electro-winning module. If the initial process requirement at BRMA remains 150,000tpm, this would require five
    such modules at an individual cost of USD20m each (2012 un-escalated price). The technical and economic review of the modular plant option suggests that, at the original PEA production rate of 150,000tpa, the small capital savings gained in the modular plant option is likely to be off-set by higher power, labour, reagent and maintenance costs."
    NOTE: the US$20 million dollar price tag of one processing plant.
    Dec 17, 2014. 04:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The CEO Of Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Leaves Questions Unanswered [View article]
    My opinion is that a significant contributor to the decline in the price of the stock is that there is arbitrage activity as a result of the convertible note deal. I believe that the convertible note holder is shorting stock to finance the initial draw. I can't think of any other reason why the amount of the initial draw would be tied to the lowest volume weighted average price.
    Dec 17, 2014. 12:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The CEO Of Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Leaves Questions Unanswered [View article]
    That is the press release that announces a toxic financing arrangement. See my article on that. http://seekingalpha.co...

    The press release from the 9th does not address the operational questions.
    Dec 17, 2014. 12:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The CEO Of Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Leaves Questions Unanswered [View article]
    @SRSrocco this is just a list of questions. Would it be so hard to put out a press release? Several of the questions will be answered in January when the next set of financial statements is due to be issued.
    Dec 16, 2014. 11:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The CEO Of Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Leaves Questions Unanswered [View article]
    Because anything he tells me would be selective disclosure. That is why I encourage him to put out a press release for all shareholders and potential investors to read.
    Dec 16, 2014. 11:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The CEO Of Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Leaves Questions Unanswered [View article]
    Sinclair can sue SeekingAlpha. In fact he has. He can't win because it is protected speech and also because truth is an absolute defense to any action.
    Dec 16, 2014. 11:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The CEO Of Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Leaves Questions Unanswered [View article]
    Mr. Sinclair can make the debate public by putting out a press release.
    Dec 16, 2014. 11:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The CEO Of Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Leaves Questions Unanswered [View article]
    But he can give you selective disclosure without accountability if you call him. That is why I encourage the company to put out a press release.
    Dec 16, 2014. 11:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
278 Comments
260 Likes