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James Emerson

 
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  • Tanzanian Royalty Exploration: The Next Tanzanian Gold Producer [View article]
    TRX had less than $11 million of net cash as of May 31. I believe that the company is insufficiently capitalized to produce enough gold at Kigosi to fund the $100+ million of capex required for the Buckreef project.
    Sep 5, 2013. 02:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tanzanian Royalty Exploration: The Next Tanzanian Gold Producer [View article]
    That is the SEDI description for RSU grants. You can refer to the company filings to see these are in fact annual grants. It is very telling that the executives and directors frequently sell their common stock as soon as it becomes unrestricted.
    Sep 4, 2013. 12:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tanzanian Royalty Exploration: The Next Tanzanian Gold Producer [View article]
    He didn't purchase them. They are part of his compensation.
    Sep 4, 2013. 11:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tanzanian Royalty Exploration: The Next Tanzanian Gold Producer [View article]
    For the #1 contributor on insider ownership, this is some very sloppy work. Since March, not one insider has made an open market purchase of stock. Almost all the "buying" reported is actually grants of restricted stock units or the transfer of restricted stock units to common stock.

    Since March 2013:
    Helen Hansen, corporate secretary, sold 25,453 shares, about 1/3 of her holdings
    S. Von Tongeren, the CFO, sold 15,000 shares, and
    President Joseph Kahama sold 8,286 shares.

    Insider selling clearly dominates. Chairman James Sinclair hasn't bought a share despite the stock trading near multi year lows back in June. Insider activity is clearly sending a signal and it is not a bullish one.

    For a refresher see my article from 2011, still true today. http://seekingalpha.co...
    Sep 4, 2013. 09:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • InterOil And Pacific LNG Group Enter Into Exclusive Negotiations With ExxonMobil On Development Of The Elk And Antelope Resource [View article]
    Not really good news. Seems XOM wants to recertify the resource. That doesn't instill a lot of confidence. Also moves out the timing for any potential monetization. Also no bid was forthcoming just areas of discussion. I guess the other two super majors didn't bid.
    May 24, 2013. 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The sudden retirement of InterOil (IOC) CEO Phil Mulacek should speed the securing of a major JV partner for its Gulf LNG project in Papua New Guinea, Raymond James analyst Pavel Molchanov says. Mulacek was a "sharply polarizing figure" perceived as "an obstacle" to a deal with interested partners such as XOM, RDS.A or TOT, and his departure provides a catalyst for an announcement. [View news story]
    I have a different read. His resignation provides him cover to liquidate his position. Since he will no longer be an insider he no longer has to report his transactions.

    I also find it odd that he is leaving before a deal is signed. I would have expected him to resign upon announcement of a deal if he were the impediment.
    Apr 24, 2013. 12:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New Evidence Questions Whether InterOil Actually Received A Bid From A Supermajor For Its Asset Selldown [View article]
    Don't ever make the mistake of thinking that some company is smart just because they invested $20 million. Plenty of so called smart investors including the CFAs who worked their owned Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Fannie Mae, Enron, Sino Forest. I could keep going If you follow the herd blindly you can get led to the slaughter house. A billion dollar fund can lose 100% on a 1% position and it is nothing more than a hiccup. For every successful short trade there are somewhere around 8 geniuses on the long side who lost their shirt.
    Apr 11, 2013. 06:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Evidence Questions Whether InterOil Actually Received A Bid From A Supermajor For Its Asset Selldown [View article]
    It is actually the company which is playing semantic games. It would be very easy for the investor relations department to clarify, but IOC is silent for some reason.
    Apr 11, 2013. 06:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Evidence Questions Whether InterOil Actually Received A Bid From A Supermajor For Its Asset Selldown [View article]
    Reputation is important as is the ability to think independently. But on Wall St. the ultimate measure is whether you make money. Being right helps in that process. This stock has an exceedingly high short interest for a reason. It offers a binary outcome with a potentially very big payout.
    Apr 10, 2013. 12:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New Evidence Questions Whether InterOil Actually Received A Bid From A Supermajor For Its Asset Selldown [View article]
    Another day passes without an IOC announcement. Silence is evidence. It is evidence of a lack of bids or more precisely a lack of acceptable bids. Management could clarify the situation if they choose too. They chose not to. That choice has information content. I perceive that content to be a negative for the stock. There is no benefit to the company for being opaque unless of course the company is concealing a weakness. I think that the company is delaying an annoucement while they try to formulate a Plan B.
    Apr 10, 2013. 12:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Evidence Questions Whether InterOil Actually Received A Bid From A Supermajor For Its Asset Selldown [View article]
    The NYSE listing provides a nexus for a suit in the US as does the company's office in the US, while its Canadian incorporation provides a nexus to Canada. Leave to the lawyers to pick the venue for a suit.
    Apr 10, 2013. 12:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New Evidence Questions Whether InterOil Actually Received A Bid From A Supermajor For Its Asset Selldown [View article]
    When you listen to enough public companies provide information, you can tell which ones are being forthright and which ones are prone to obsfucation. The information coming out of IOC is less than forthright.

    The February 28th deadline was supposed to be for final bids. process should be well beyond preliminary bids. When you run a bidding process, you the seller set the parameters of what is an acceptable bid. So comparisions between the bids should be relatively easy. This This was supposed to be the culmination of a long process which is why it is troubling that IOC hasn't made an announcement, issued a press release or made a regulatory filing. Five weeks is a long time not to release any information about the bids or the bidders.
    Apr 9, 2013. 03:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Evidence Questions Whether InterOil Actually Received A Bid From A Supermajor For Its Asset Selldown [View article]
    That applies to the people who are selling the security. You can't defraud someone if you don't take their money so telling someone that this company is a bad investment can never constitute fraud.
    Apr 9, 2013. 02:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Side By Side Comparison Of Cove Energy And InterOil's Bidding Processes [View article]
    It says "At least two supermajors are involved with bids for an operating stake of the Elk-Antelope field which underpins InterOil’s Gulf LNG project." The statement is not attributed to Mulacek.

    What it does not say is TWO SUPERMAJORS HAVE BID. Companies and reporters use specific language for a reason. Read between the lines there is no bidding war and there are not two bids.
    Apr 8, 2013. 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Side By Side Comparison Of Cove Energy And InterOil's Bidding Processes [View article]
    I advise a client that is long some puts.
    Apr 5, 2013. 01:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
278 Comments
258 Likes