James Emerson's  Instablog

Back on March 1st, InterOil IOC "was pleased to announce that's its advisors have informed the company that several bids to partner with InterOil in its Gulf LNG project have been received." It is now April 2nd and shareholders haven't been told the results of the process. The lack of communication portends a downdraft in the stock.

In the company's earnings release they stated "Our Board of Directors intends to meet our advisors during March 2013 for the purpose of evaluating bids received and selecting our partner(s) for the development of the LNG Project utilizing gas from the Elk and Antelope fields." Based on that announcement, I would have expected at a minimum an announcement of the name of the winning bidder by the end of March. The lack of a triumphant press release is a clear signal that the bids were inadequate. It doesn't take a month to analyze and select a winner.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

The stock broke the key $5.70 level on relatively light volume.  $5.70 is a key level as it was price the underwriter paid in the recent offering.  Recent purchasers are now significantly underwater.  The next key level is the $5.30s which is my estimate of the entry price for the largest shareholder, Geier International Strategies Fund managed by Mr. Gibson.  Look for the downward trend to continue and accelerate if the stock breaks below $5.30

Probably time to cover shorts on this stock.  There is still downside potential but the risk reward ratio has changed significantly.  The stock down is down from the $14 range when merger speculation was rife to $6.27 today.  The Jan 2013 10 Puts I mentioned in my last post are now $4.80 x $5.15.