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James Goodwin

 
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  • Canada's North Sea: Newfoundland's Offshore Oil [View article]
    Corridor has a permit to drill, but not the official green light due to a long drawn out Strategic Environmental Assessment by the federal government. The environmental regulatory process included a well paid lawyer from New Brunswick visiting small towns around the Gulf listening to local opinions and some science, but appears that it will be approved in 2014 with the strict conditions you would expect for any offshore drilling in Canada. The CNLOPB extended Corridor's permit to 2017 due to the regulatory delays. The stock's rally seems to have been sparked by them announcing plans to drill in 2015 and a draft report that does not outright condemn the project. Although with only $20 million of cash on hand, it will be a one well campaign unless they land a partner or raise some serious capital. I have no doubt there is oil there, but until all the provinces that border on the Gulf are placated, drilling may be stalled by court challenges. Quebec, for one, needs to be absolutely on side. More interestingly for Newfoundland is the Flemish pass. The second well I mentioned two years ago did not hit oil, but was considered potentially productive, and the third well hit significant amounts of oil. The three wells are spread around an area the size of the current producing assets on the Grand Banks, so Husky and Statoil seem to believe they have more than enough to start planning long term production. And despite the ultra conservative 300 million barrels they are throwing around, they may be sitting on billions of barrels (of $60 marginal oil) when they start infilling between the wells.
    Feb 10 10:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bitcoin Fails As A Currency And The Bubble Will Eventually Pop [View article]
    I think you're missing a big part of bitcoin's potential and getting lost in considering bitcoin a currency. Bitcoin isn't a currency and won't be, for some of the reasons you pointed out. However, it, or something like it, will be very successful. Stores can accept bitcoin and immediately convert it through services like Coinbase. They aren't exposed to the risk. And they don't have to pay 3% to a credit card company or 25 cents to the debit network. (A new online store will often have to pay 25% fees to a credit card company due to their 'risk' or up to 50% to sell their wares on Amazon) The bitcoin protocol just processes these transactions, and the services like Coinbase charge substantially lower fees.

    But wait, there's more! There is a money transmitter with offices in London and Nairobi, and they allow foreign workers in London to send their money home to Nairobi for half of what Western Union charges. There is a leather shoe company in Iran that will ship you custom made shoes for bitcoin. Iran is barred from the international banking system, but their merchants can still accept bitcoin, and shoes are not covered by any embargo. It is literally the only way to sell their product overseas.

    I think a lot of people who are dead fast against bitcoin believe it either has to replace the US dollar or fail. But you are missing the point. Just like some people thought personal computers or the Internet was just a fad, they missed the point of what it was offering. Even if bitcoin fails, there is a place for a cryptocurrency. Also, I would stop calling it "The Bitcoin", it sounds like my parents asking about "The Facebook" in 2007, it hints you haven't read enough on the topic to know how to refer to it correctly. You could say "The Bitcoin Protocol", that would probably make you sound well read.
    Feb 10 10:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Picks For Risk-Seeking Investors: Coastal Energy, OCZ Technology [View article]
    http://bit.ly/x0EQr3

    There you go. Another successful well. They've blown away my expectations, although the stock price suggests more modest approval.
    Mar 13 07:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Picks For Risk-Seeking Investors: Coastal Energy, OCZ Technology [View article]
    Their last news release says they were planning to start BBS drilling at the end of February. So, presumably, they are underway.
    Mar 9 10:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Newfound Billions Of Barrels Of Shale Oil In Newfoundland [View article]
    For oil to form, it has to be in the "oil window". That means, the organic matter has to have been exposed to enough pressure, time and heat to form oil, but not so much to form gas. When you look at it from a geologic stand point, it is really easy for deposits to become natural gas. All oil deposits, if left, will turn to natural gas eventually. East of the Appalachians in Canada, such as in New Brunswick, they have only gas and very little oil. This is at least partially due to the depth of the reserves, which means more pressure and heat, and the age of the deposits. I hope that helps.
    Mar 7 07:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Newfound Billions Of Barrels Of Shale Oil In Newfoundland [View article]
    The oil is there, no doubt, but I think it is still too soon to call any of it economically extractable. They've drilled a few times now, every time they hit the shale, but oil never flows, at least not for more than a few minutes. I'd be interested to see some more data beyond TOC, like the reservoir temperature, or some fracking tests. (Have they ever fracked a well in Newfoundland?)
    Mar 5 09:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Teck Resources: A Wager On Metallurgical Coal [View article]
    Ya, someone already pointed that out. My apologies. Just a refinery.
    Feb 17 08:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Teck Resources: A Wager On Metallurgical Coal [View article]
    Given how their last aquisition went, let's hope they don't overpay again.
    Feb 13 10:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Teck Resources: A Wager On Metallurgical Coal [View article]
    My apologies, you are of course correct.
    Feb 13 09:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McEwen Mining's Silver Lining [View article]
    I clearly like McEwen, so I won't touch that. However, costs aren't solely carried by HOC, you're thinking of a royalty interest. Since Minera Andes has an equity interest they had to put 49% of the cash into the San Jose holding company that runs the mine. (Cash which they borrow from HOC.) And Minera Andes doesn't get 49% of the production, they get 49% of San Jose's profits after all costs.
    Feb 11 01:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McEwen Mining's Silver Lining [View article]
    After the feasibility study, they go for permits from the government (which they're doing now, and its the US so should be quick), then they need to raise the capital to build it, then build the mine (which can take months or years). I think their 2015 date is a reasonable guess. However, there are a lot of problems that can pop up during any of these phases. Credit markets can contract, engineering problems, political opposition etc.
    Feb 11 01:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McEwen Mining's Silver Lining [View article]
    I'll see if I can find time this weekend.
    Feb 10 08:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McEwen Mining's Silver Lining [View article]
    You're right, 267 million shares outstanding. Sorry about that.
    Feb 10 08:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McEwen Mining's Silver Lining [View article]
    Perhaps I'll do an article on that litigation, my backgbround is law. I could probably order the pleadings from the BC Supreme Court.

    Xstrata didn't option the mine because it didn't have the cash on hand. I thought they might, but in 2009, cash wasn't easy to come by and loading up on debt would get CEOs fired.
    Feb 10 07:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McEwen Mining's Silver Lining [View article]
    My response to your points:

    1) I disagree. From McEwen Mining's website, on their page about Gold Bar: "It is currently in the permitting phase with construction expected be begin in 2014, and gold production expected in early 2015." Their presentation and press releases also state this.

    2) You're right, El Gallo is gold first, then silver.

    3) You're right, Rob McEwen has done some amazing work in his career. I hear he actually has his own gold vault.
    Feb 10 07:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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