Comments on James Kar's articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/james-kar/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/145029-china-natural-gas-plans-to-raise-more-capital-for-possible-expansion?source=feed#comment-660851 660851 Thu, 03 Sep 2009 16:28:46 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/155795-china-natural-gas-announces-q2-results-affirms-fy-guidance?source=feed#comment-628273 628273 Thu, 13 Aug 2009 11:20:20 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95992-is-aig-a-buy-following-the-government-bailout?source=feed#comment-618578 618578 Thu, 06 Aug 2009 16:07:32 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95992-is-aig-a-buy-following-the-government-bailout?source=feed#comment-618575 618575 Thu, 06 Aug 2009 16:05:08 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/142297-byd-risky-now-value-later?source=feed#comment-590515 590515 Thu, 16 Jul 2009 11:15:38 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/147007-what-you-can-do-during-a-slow-growth-recovery?source=feed#comment-578172 578172 Mr. Kar, > > Didn't the language of the last FOMC minutes indicate that rates > will "remain low for an extended period of time", or words very close > to that? Actually, good quality corp. debt is not the worst place > to park some money for say, the next 9-12 months, maybe longer.
> > Given that Biden 'fessed up to the fact the current administration > totally missed how severe the downturn would turn out to be, and > there's talk of the "next" stimulus plan, I don't see rates rising > for some time, though obviously, at some future point, they will, > as the Gov. tries to unwind the mess. > > donzelion; I agree with you on the quality dividend paying stock > play, as well. Some of the healthcare stocks are good, and as RE > Broker mentions, foreign telecoms work, too. > > Disclosure: Long JNJ, FTE]]> Tue, 07 Jul 2009 21:09:16 -0400 The FOMC meeting language basically telling investors that the Fed would accommodate the economy and would keep rates low as long as possible. But this is what the Fed's planning but the global currency and commodities markets may not let the Fed has its way.

The Fed thought the fiscal stimulus along with the monetary policy would get the economy going. We know this fails so far. Now, the gov even talk about second stimulus. This no doubt will make global investors losing confidence in the US$. They may even think the US gov is engaging in reckless fiscal policies that will sink the dollar value. Thus, the US gov may have to offer higher rates to attract bond buyers. If China has its way about the global reserve currencies issue, the US$ may start to trend downward again. With higher commodities prices and lower US$, investors will demand higher rates before lending to the US government.
Remember now China starts to settle global trade in RMB, which in turns will reduce demand for US$. This would make the US$ even weaker. Once investors lose confidence in US$, the Fed has no choice but to raise interest rate even the Fed does not want to. What do you think?


On Jul 06 09:52 PM Old Trader wrote:

> Mr. Kar,
>
> Didn't the language of the last FOMC minutes indicate that rates
> will "remain low for an extended period of time", or words very close
> to that? Actually, good quality corp. debt is not the worst place
> to park some money for say, the next 9-12 months, maybe longer.

>
> Given that Biden 'fessed up to the fact the current administration
> totally missed how severe the downturn would turn out to be, and
> there's talk of the "next" stimulus plan, I don't see rates rising
> for some time, though obviously, at some future point, they will,
> as the Gov. tries to unwind the mess.
>
> donzelion; I agree with you on the quality dividend paying stock
> play, as well. Some of the healthcare stocks are good, and as RE
> Broker mentions, foreign telecoms work, too.
>
> Disclosure: Long JNJ, FTE]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147007-what-you-can-do-during-a-slow-growth-recovery?source=feed#comment-576519 576519 Hi "Oldman": As the interest rate is as low as it is now, the interest > rate cannot go much lower since the Fed already target the fed fund > rate close to zero. The chance is higher for the rate to go up instead. > As the interest rate goes up, bond price goes down. At this time, > I would not put most investment in bond. May be you can consider > dividend paying oil stocks like ConocoPhilips (http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/cop) > paying $1.88 dividend with the current yield at 4.60%. The stock > pays you something while you are waiting for the recovery. Also, > the stock will participate in market recovery plus giving you some > inflation or USD depreciation. Hope this helps.]]> Mon, 06 Jul 2009 21:52:21 -0400
Didn't the language of the last FOMC minutes indicate that rates will "remain low for an extended period of time", or words very close to that? Actually, good quality corp. debt is not the worst place to park some money for say, the next 9-12 months, maybe longer.

Given that Biden 'fessed up to the fact the current administration totally missed how severe the downturn would turn out to be, and there's talk of the "next" stimulus plan, I don't see rates rising for some time, though obviously, at some future point, they will, as the Gov. tries to unwind the mess.

donzelion; I agree with you on the quality dividend paying stock play, as well. Some of the healthcare stocks are good, and as RE Broker mentions, foreign telecoms work, too.

Disclosure: Long JNJ, FTE


On Jul 06 10:59 AM James Kar wrote:

> Hi "Oldman": As the interest rate is as low as it is now, the interest
> rate cannot go much lower since the Fed already target the fed fund
> rate close to zero. The chance is higher for the rate to go up instead.
> As the interest rate goes up, bond price goes down. At this time,
> I would not put most investment in bond. May be you can consider
> dividend paying oil stocks like ConocoPhilips (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
> paying $1.88 dividend with the current yield at 4.60%. The stock
> pays you something while you are waiting for the recovery. Also,
> the stock will participate in market recovery plus giving you some
> inflation or USD depreciation. Hope this helps.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147007-what-you-can-do-during-a-slow-growth-recovery?source=feed#comment-576491 576491 Mon, 06 Jul 2009 21:11:21 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/147007-what-you-can-do-during-a-slow-growth-recovery?source=feed#comment-575827 575827 May be you can consider dividend paying oil stocks like > ConocoPhilips (http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/cop) > paying $1.88 dividend with the current yield at 4.60%. The stock > pays you something while you are waiting for the recovery. Also, > the stock will participate in market recovery plus giving you some > inflation or USD depreciation.]]> Mon, 06 Jul 2009 12:55:00 -0400
China is more interested in securing access to commodities over the long-run than in buying the commodities themselves: I see that as favoring a long-haul strategy for my own positions.

On Jul 06 10:59 AM James Kar wrote:

> May be you can consider dividend paying oil stocks like
> ConocoPhilips (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
> paying $1.88 dividend with the current yield at 4.60%. The stock
> pays you something while you are waiting for the recovery. Also,
> the stock will participate in market recovery plus giving you some
> inflation or USD depreciation.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147007-what-you-can-do-during-a-slow-growth-recovery?source=feed#comment-575632 575632 Mon, 06 Jul 2009 11:19:57 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/147007-what-you-can-do-during-a-slow-growth-recovery?source=feed#comment-575593 575593 Mon, 06 Jul 2009 10:59:33 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/147007-what-you-can-do-during-a-slow-growth-recovery?source=feed#comment-575377 575377 Mon, 06 Jul 2009 09:18:36 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/147007-what-you-can-do-during-a-slow-growth-recovery?source=feed#comment-574675 574675 Sun, 05 Jul 2009 14:40:33 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/147007-what-you-can-do-during-a-slow-growth-recovery?source=feed#comment-574614 574614 Sun, 05 Jul 2009 13:23:26 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/147007-what-you-can-do-during-a-slow-growth-recovery?source=feed#comment-574508 574508 Sun, 05 Jul 2009 11:39:41 -0400 www.madhedgefundtrader.... ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147007-what-you-can-do-during-a-slow-growth-recovery?source=feed#comment-574469 574469 Sun, 05 Jul 2009 11:11:16 -0400
Expect oil and gold to correct, along with the Aussie dollar and the Brasil market. Now (this month) is not the time to go long these instruments IMO.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/142297-byd-risky-now-value-later?source=feed#comment-567429 567429 Mon, 29 Jun 2009 15:59:46 -0400
That all said, BYD seems like one to keep an eye on, buy on dips. And believe me there will be a huge freakin' dip in Japanese, American and European auto makers as new sales continue to drop as consumer credit (or the willingness of consumers to take on more debt) gets more challenged.

A long BYD/short TM (Toyota) pair would be interesting...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145578-domestic-china-companies-offer-investment-opportunities?source=feed#comment-563800 563800 The increase yesterday was because the company "entered into a new > agreement with Shanghai Nine Dragon Co., Ltd. (http://www.ninedragon.com.cn) > to undertake the major projects located in the Nine Dragon Resort, > Zhejiang, including a seven star hotel, a marine park and luxurious > villas. " Didn't mention a rail system in the news release. If > you like rail and nuclear buildout in China, look at HLS Systems > (http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/holi), specializing in automatic > control systems specifically for high speed rail and nuclear power > plants. Forward earnings look fantastic. Lightly traded right now, > but tends to just go up. I'm long CAEI, APWR, and HOLI.]]> Fri, 26 Jun 2009 12:57:35 -0400

On Jun 26 11:27 AM Dave Marsh wrote:

> The increase yesterday was because the company "entered into a new
> agreement with Shanghai Nine Dragon Co., Ltd. (www.ninedragon.com.cn)
> to undertake the major projects located in the Nine Dragon Resort,
> Zhejiang, including a seven star hotel, a marine park and luxurious
> villas. " Didn't mention a rail system in the news release. If
> you like rail and nuclear buildout in China, look at HLS Systems
> (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), specializing in automatic
> control systems specifically for high speed rail and nuclear power
> plants. Forward earnings look fantastic. Lightly traded right now,
> but tends to just go up. I'm long CAEI, APWR, and HOLI.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145578-domestic-china-companies-offer-investment-opportunities?source=feed#comment-563700 563700 The increase yesterday was because the company "entered into a new > agreement with Shanghai Nine Dragon Co., Ltd. (http://www.ninedragon.com.cn) > to undertake the major projects located in the Nine Dragon Resort, > Zhejiang, including a seven star hotel, a marine park and luxurious > villas. " Didn't mention a rail system in the news release. If you > like rail and nuclear buildout in China, look at HLS Systems (http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/holi), > specializing in automatic control systems specifically for high speed > rail and nuclear power plants. Forward earnings look fantastic. Lightly > traded right now, but tends to just go up. I'm long CAEI, APWR, and > HOLI.]]> Fri, 26 Jun 2009 12:06:50 -0400
However, seems like it "tends to just go up" only since last December in sync with the big rally of most Chinese stocks.


On Jun 26 11:27 AM Dave Marsh wrote:

> The increase yesterday was because the company "entered into a new
> agreement with Shanghai Nine Dragon Co., Ltd. (www.ninedragon.com.cn)
> to undertake the major projects located in the Nine Dragon Resort,
> Zhejiang, including a seven star hotel, a marine park and luxurious
> villas. " Didn't mention a rail system in the news release. If you
> like rail and nuclear buildout in China, look at HLS Systems (seekingalpha.com/symbo...),
> specializing in automatic control systems specifically for high speed
> rail and nuclear power plants. Forward earnings look fantastic. Lightly
> traded right now, but tends to just go up. I'm long CAEI, APWR, and
> HOLI.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145578-domestic-china-companies-offer-investment-opportunities?source=feed#comment-563636 563636 Fri, 26 Jun 2009 11:27:21 -0400 www.ninedragon.com.cn) to undertake the major projects located in the Nine Dragon Resort, Zhejiang, including a seven star hotel, a marine park and luxurious villas. " Didn't mention a rail system in the news release. If you like rail and nuclear buildout in China, look at HLS Systems (HOLI), specializing in automatic control systems specifically for high speed rail and nuclear power plants. Forward earnings look fantastic. Lightly traded right now, but tends to just go up. I'm long CAEI, APWR, and HOLI.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145578-domestic-china-companies-offer-investment-opportunities?source=feed#comment-563594 563594 Fri, 26 Jun 2009 11:00:44 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/145578-domestic-china-companies-offer-investment-opportunities?source=feed#comment-563351 563351 Fri, 26 Jun 2009 09:06:48 -0400 In doing so, it is generating tremendous internal opportunities in "purchasing power" (commodity deals), while at the same time expanding east to west within its own geographic boarders.
The game plan being executed today, in the future, will enable the Chinese to rapidly expand from export nation to more of consumer.
A small company like APWR is more intrinsic to economic development thru electric grid buildout and alternative energy development than many analysts seem to give credit.
APWR's dominence in their business will prove rewarding to those of us with the patience to hold.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/144157-inflation-vs-deflation-what-are-investors-facing?source=feed#comment-555418 555418 Sat, 20 Jun 2009 14:08:00 -0400
The Chinese are willing to spend their dollars on commodities to get ride of them right now, and long term signing contracts in Yuans. Then 5 or 10 years from now they wont have dollar reserves and can float the Yuan against the dollar. Then the producing countries are pricing their commodities in dollars experience a sudden drop in income.

I disagree that 2 billion Chinesse at $400 a year wont provide a nice market, it will just be different from an American driven market. The average Chinese laborer wont p*ss away the equivilant of several hundred hours of his labor to buy a vehicle so he can live far from work and spend hours a day stuck in traffic. Their society and cities arent arranged that way and they dont have the excess resources to screw it up like America had.

The 21st century will be a struggle between the Chinese and the muslum world. I would bet on the Chinese. Incompetent American leaders from FDR to Carter to Clinton and both Bushes have destroyed the advantages we have enjoyed for over 2 centuries. BHO is just another in a long line of inept front men...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/144157-inflation-vs-deflation-what-are-investors-facing?source=feed#comment-555408 555408 predictions are more THAN educated guesses forced on us by our financial > needs. On Jun 20 01:51 PM carey_jim wrote: > Unfortunately, world history demonstrates that the future can neither > be predicted reliably nor, even less, can it be controlled by private > or public elites. > > Human beings can't even define the terms of their conversations honestly. > Instead, they speak with the vocabulary of various dogmas, from Catholicism > and Islam to Marxism, Keynsianism and Austrian School economics. > > > Also, if we can't even predict the weather reliably, how can we predict > the fluctuations of things that are far more complicated, such as > the health and prosperity of companies and countries? > > I agree that we have to try but we don't have to pretend that our > predictions are more educated guesses forced on us by our financial > needs. > > Yelling and insulting each other is also inevitable but it usually > makes everything worse.]]> Sat, 20 Jun 2009 13:52:53 -0400
I agree that we have to try but we don't have to pretend that our
> predictions are more THAN educated guesses forced on us by our financial
> needs.


On Jun 20 01:51 PM carey_jim wrote:

> Unfortunately, world history demonstrates that the future can neither
> be predicted reliably nor, even less, can it be controlled by private
> or public elites.
>
> Human beings can't even define the terms of their conversations honestly.
> Instead, they speak with the vocabulary of various dogmas, from Catholicism
> and Islam to Marxism, Keynsianism and Austrian School economics.
>
>
> Also, if we can't even predict the weather reliably, how can we predict
> the fluctuations of things that are far more complicated, such as
> the health and prosperity of companies and countries?
>
> I agree that we have to try but we don't have to pretend that our
> predictions are more educated guesses forced on us by our financial
> needs.
>
> Yelling and insulting each other is also inevitable but it usually
> makes everything worse.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/144157-inflation-vs-deflation-what-are-investors-facing?source=feed#comment-555404 555404 Sat, 20 Jun 2009 13:51:16 -0400
Human beings can't even define the terms of their conversations honestly. Instead, they speak with the vocabulary of various dogmas, from Catholicism and Islam to Marxism, Keynsianism and Austrian School economics.

Also, if we can't even predict the weather reliably, how can we predict the fluctuations of things that are far more complicated, such as the health and prosperity of companies and countries?

I agree that we have to try but we don't have to pretend that our predictions are more educated guesses forced on us by our financial needs.

Yelling and insulting each other is also inevitable but it usually makes everything worse.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/144157-inflation-vs-deflation-what-are-investors-facing?source=feed#comment-555303 555303 China does not really float their currency against the USD its still > fixed to it. > > As the USD falls China goes with it making Chinas products even cheaper > in countries other than the USA. > > If China detached their currency from the USD because of inflation > they kill profit from their largest customer. > > 1 billion people at $400 per year will not replace the American consumer. > > > > ]]> Sat, 20 Jun 2009 12:07:53 -0400

On Jun 19 11:32 PM KIT wrote:

> China does not really float their currency against the USD its still
> fixed to it.
>
> As the USD falls China goes with it making Chinas products even cheaper
> in countries other than the USA.
>
> If China detached their currency from the USD because of inflation
> they kill profit from their largest customer.
>
> 1 billion people at $400 per year will not replace the American consumer.
>
>
>
> ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/144157-inflation-vs-deflation-what-are-investors-facing?source=feed#comment-554871 554871 Fri, 19 Jun 2009 23:33:55 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/144157-inflation-vs-deflation-what-are-investors-facing?source=feed#comment-554870 554870 Fri, 19 Jun 2009 23:32:54 -0400
As the USD falls China goes with it making Chinas products even cheaper in countries other than the USA.

If China detached their currency from the USD because of inflation they kill profit from their largest customer.

1 billion people at $400 per year will not replace the American consumer.




]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/144157-inflation-vs-deflation-what-are-investors-facing?source=feed#comment-554578 554578 Fri, 19 Jun 2009 18:44:55 -0400 Yahoo!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/144157-inflation-vs-deflation-what-are-investors-facing?source=feed#comment-554461 554461 Fri, 19 Jun 2009 17:12:03 -0400 right and thus use up some of its dollar reserves. The Chinese
Government is in somewhat of a Catch 22: they cannot just
dump dollars without hurting the value of their reserves and they
cannot keep accumulating dollars. I believe they have come up
with a solution which, though not perfect, will answer their needs
without antagonizing the U.S.A.]]>