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James Picerno  

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  • Personal Consumption Expenditures: Feb. 2015 Preview
    Today, 4:50 AM SPY, DIA, QQQ Comment!
  • Managing Expectations Down
    Thu, Mar. 26 IEF, PST, IEI Comment!
  • U.S. REITs Retain Their Lead As Commodities Trend Lower
    Wed, Mar. 25 IYR, VNQ, DRN Comment!
  • U.S. Manufacturing Activity Perks Up In March
    Tue, Mar. 24 SPY, DIA, QQQ 4 Comments
  • First, Do No Harm
    Tue, Mar. 24 7 Comments
  • Chicago Fed: U.S. Growth Decelerates To 12-Month Low In February
    Mon, Mar. 23 SPY, DIA, QQQ 3 Comments
  • Q1 2015 U.S. GDP Estimate: +2.1%
    Mon, Mar. 23 SPY, DIA, QQQ 14 Comments
  • The Fed Loses Patience... Sort Of
    Thu, Mar. 19 IEF, PST, IEI 5 Comments
  • U.S. Economic Trend - 03.18.2015
    Wed, Mar. 18 SPY, DIA, QQQ 2 Comments
  • Housing Starts Fall More Than Expected In February
    Tue, Mar. 17 XHB, ITB, PKB 1 Comment

    Summary

    • New construction of US residential housing in February was considerably weaker than expected, raising more doubts about the resilience of the economy's strength.
    • As for the data in hand, today's bad news was tempered somewhat by the strength in newly issued housing permits, which perked up to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.092 million - close to a post-recession high.
    • Some economists favor the idea that permits are effectively a leading indicator for starts, which implies that residential construction activity will improve in the months ahead.
    • The one corner of the economy that's still holding up is the labor market, which is no trivial point. Private-sector payrolls rose 288,000 last month.
    • The next clue for judging the trend in payrolls arrives on Thursday, with the weekly update on jobless claims.
  • Fresh Doubts About The Timing Of The Fed's First Rate Hike
    Tue, Mar. 17 SPY, DIA, QQQ 6 Comments
  • U.S. Industrial Production Rises Less Than Forecast In February
    Tue, Mar. 17 SPY, DIA, QQQ 2 Comments
  • U.S. Industrial Production: February 2015 Preview
    Mon, Mar. 16 XLI, VIS, IYJ 1 Comment
  • The Big Slide In U.S. Money Supply Growth Rolls On
    Fri, Mar. 13 DIA, SPY, QQQ 8 Comments
  • Healthcare's Relative Strength Persists As Broad Market Retreats
    Thu, Mar. 12 XLV, XLE, SPY Comment!
  • A Bullish Update For Jobless Claims As Retail Sales Slide Again
    Thu, Mar. 12 XRT, SPY, DIA 3 Comments
  • U.S. Retail Sales: February 2015 Preview
    Wed, Mar. 11 XRT Comment!
  • Pondering The Case For An Early Rate Hike
    Wed, Mar. 11 DIA, SPY, QQQ 1 Comment
  • Macro Markets Risk Index: U.S. Business Cycle Risk Remains Low
    Wed, Mar. 11 SPY, QQQ, DIA 2 Comments
  • Managing Portfolio Risk With Tactical Asset Allocation
    Mon, Mar. 9 SPY, AGG 5 Comments
  • Warren Buffett's Stellar Record In Defying Economic Gravity
    Fri, Mar. 6 SPY 7 Comments
  • A Hefty Upside Surprise For February Payrolls
    Fri, Mar. 6 DIA, SPY, QQQ 1 Comment
  • Jobless Claims Rise To 10-Month High
    Thu, Mar. 5 DIA, IWM, QQQ 3 Comments
  • ADP Data Anticipates Slower Growth For U.S. February Payrolls Report
    Thu, Mar. 5 DIA, IWM, QQQ Comment!
  • ADP: U.S. February Payrolls Continue To Grow, But At Slower Rate
    Wed, Mar. 4 DIA, IWM, QQQ 4 Comments
  • ADP Employment Report: February 2015 Preview
    Tue, Mar. 3 SPY, DIA, QQQ 2 Comments
  • Major Asset Classes: Feb 2015 Performance Review
    Mon, Mar. 2 SPY, DIA, QQQ 2 Comments
  • ISM Manufacturing Index: February 2015 Preview
    Mon, Mar. 2 SPY, DIA, QQQ Comment!
  • Personal Consumption Spending Expected To Be Flat In January
    Mon, Mar. 2 IPD, RXI 1 Comment
  • 10 Funds, 10 Asset Allocation Profiles
    Fri, Feb. 27 BRUFX, WASCX, SGENX 12 Comments
  • Deflation, Growth And The Next Recession
    Fri, Feb. 27 1 Comment
  • The Popular (But Risky) Habit Of Cherry Picking Economic Data For Business Cycle Analysis
    Wed, Feb. 25 8 Comments