We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights, that among these are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. That to secure these rights, governments are instituted among men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed. That whenever any form of government becomes destructive to these ends, it is the right of the people to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their safety and happiness.

Declaration of Independence

I didn't go to boarding schools
Preppy girls never looked at me

Why should they, I ain't nobody
Got nothing in my pocket. - Living in Beverly Hills [Weezer]

“It should be obvious from simple arithmetic that population growth is on a direct collision course with increasingly scarce resources.” - Jeremy Grantham

<< Return to The Looming Threat of Peak Water, Part I

Potential Impact on Commodities

The United States, for better or worse, is a sprawling, suburban-dominated country with large supplies of freshwater in some regions and limited amounts in other regions. Suburban sprawl has put intense pressure on local water supplies. The millions of acres of perfectly manicured green lawns and millions of backyard “cement ponds” require vast quantities of water to retain that glorious green hue. The Ipswich River near Boston now "runs dry about every other year or so," according to Sandra Postel, director of the Global Water Policy Project. "Why? Heavy pumping of groundwater for irrigation of big green lawns." In drought years like 1999 or 2003, Maryland, Virginia and the District have begun to fight over the Potomac -- on hot summer days combining to suck up 85 percent of the river's flow. With 67 million more people expected to inhabit the United States by 2030, these water shortages will only become more severe.

<< Part 2

Inflation, Instability, Crisis, & Collapse

Mr. Chairman, we have in this country one of the most corrupt institutions the world has ever known. I refer to the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Reserve banks. The Federal Reserve Board, a Government board, has cheated the Government of the United States out of enough money to pay the national debt. The depredations and the iniquities of the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal reserve banks acting together have cost this country enough money to pay the national debt several times over. This evil institution has impoverished and ruined the people of the United States; has bankrupted itself, and has practically bankrupted our Government. It has done this through defects of the law under which it operates, through the maladministration of that law by the Federal Reserve Board and through the corrupt practices of the moneyed vultures who control it.

<< Part 1

FED HALL OF SHAME

Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value -- zero.

– Voltaire

<< Continued from part 1

Generation X – Assuming Command

We yearn for civic character but satisfy ourselves with symbolic gestures and celebrity circuses. We perceive no greatness in our leaders, a new meanness in ourselves. Small wonder that each new election brings a new jolt, its aftermath a new disappointment. Not long ago, America was more than the sum of its parts. Now, it is less. Around World War II, we were proud as a people but modest as individuals. Fewer than two people in ten said yes when asked, Are you a very important person? Today, more than six in ten say yes. Where we once thought ourselves collectively strong, we now regard ourselves as individually entitled. Yet even while we exalt our own personal growth, we realize that millions of self-actualized persons don’t add up to an actualized society.

Thus might the next Fourth Turning end in apocalypse – or glory. The nation could be ruined, its democracy destroyed, and millions of people scattered or killed. Or America could enter a new golden age, triumphantly applying shared values to improve the human condition. The rhythms of history do not reveal the outcome of the coming Crisis; all they suggest is the timing and dimension.

Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

<< Return to Part 2

Starve the Beast

“The budget should be balanced, the treasury should be refilled, the public debt should be reduced and the arrogance of public officials should be controlled.”

<< Return to Part 1

Money is Power

“Money is power, and in that government which pays all the public officers of the states will all political power be substantially concentrated.”

“Rather than love, than money, than fame, give me truth.”

-- Henry David Thoreau

<< Return to The Debt Conundrum Part 1

If there is one chart that tells the tale of the U.S. economic demise, it is the graphic below. It illustrates the transformation of a country that saved and invested to a country that borrowed and spent. In 1981 consumer expenditures accounted for 62% of GDP and private investment accounted for 19% of GDP. Consumer expenditures soared to 70% of GDP while private investment plunged to 11% of GDP. The American economy needs to revert back to the healthier percentages of 1981. Essentially, American households need to spend $1 trillion less per year and use this money to pay down debt and increase savings.

Dr. Frederick Frankenstein: [to Igor] Now that brain that you gave me. Was it Hans Delbruck's?

Igor: [pause, then] No.

<< Return to Part 1

Economic Growth

The 1800’s had the usual ups and downs economically. But, there were a few themes that dominated. GDP grew consistently, with a big spike in the 2^nd half of the century. The 1800’s were also characterized by deflation. The U.S. was able to generate tremendous growth using virtually no government debt, except during the Civil War. The National Debt stood at $2.3 billion in 1872 and dropped to $1.7 billion by 1888. Lastly, the U.S. currency was rock steady because it was backed by gold. The National Currency Act of 1863 established the dollar as the national currency. The National Banking Acts of 1864 and 1865 created the infrastructure of our national banking system. In 1865 there were 1,643 banks in the U.S. By 1896 there were 11,500 banks operating in the U.S. Financial panics occurred when expansion and over-investment got out of hand in 1873 and 1893. They were violent and short.

Do you ever get the feeling that we are being pursued by someone who wants to kill us? No matter what we do, they are still in pursuit. They never let up. We’ve tried deception, trickery, and frantic escapes. Now we have climbed a steep mountain and are cornered in a canyon with our pursuers above and a river below. We don’t have many choices. We could give up, we can fight and die, or jump and hope to live another day. Our pursuers are not going to surrender. They are going to keep pursuing us until we’re caught or dead.

The United States once had a Western frontier spirit. No challenge was too daunting. We were the pursuers, Great Britain was the pursued. We were a young nation with a rural population anxious to move to the big city and make their fortune. With fertility rates exceeding 6 births per woman for the 1^st half of the 1800’s, a population explosion took place in the U.S. Fertility rates declined steadily, but still stayed above 4 for most of the 1800’s. The youthful nation created the Industrial Revolution, built thousands of miles of railroad tracks, created a financial banking system, became a manufacturing powerhouse, and adapted to an urban society. It wasn’t smooth progress, but it was relentless progress.

Money is the Root of Evil

Now a couple hours past, and I was sitting in my house, the day was winding down and coming to an end, so I turned on the TV, and flipped it over to the news, and what I saw I almost couldn't comprehend, I saw a preacher man in cuffs taking money from the church, he stuffed his bank account with righteous dollar bills but even still I can't say much cause I know were all the same, oh yes we all seek out to satisfy those thrills.

Ain’t No Rest for the Wicked – Cage the Elephant

<< Return to Part 1

Housing Has Bottomed

At the center of the Earth
In the parking lot
Of the 7-11 where I was taught
The motto was just a lie
It says home is where your heart is
But what a shame
Cause everyone's heart
Doesn't beat the same
It's beating out of time

Everyone is so full of shit
Born and raised by hypocrites

Hearts recycled but never saved
From the cradle to the grave
We are the kids of war and peace
From Anaheim to the middle east
We are the stories and disciples
Of the Jesus of suburbia
Land of make believe
That don't believe in me
Land of make believe
And I don't believe
And I don't care!