Seeking Alpha

James Roemer

 
View as an RSS Feed
View James Roemer's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • The Inactive Sun: Preliminary Look At Winter, Crude Oil/Natural Gas [View article]
    Thank you for all of your comments and discussion. I apologize due to time constraints that I cannot answer all questions right now. I will have futher updates on the winter, in the weeks ahead.....
    Cheers,

    Jim
    Nov 17 09:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Soars On Bullish EIA And Big Eastern Heat. Will It Last? [View article]
    Thanks,
    Jim
    Jul 22 01:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Soars On Bullish EIA And Big Eastern Heat. Will It Last? [View article]
    Wow, thanks for all your comments. Regarding forecasting accuracy and in accuracy, why doesn't everyone go back 1-2 years to my archives and read many of my predictions about the snow drought of 2011; Midwest grain drought, bitter cold March last winter; and several other major weather predictions 1-3 months out for many markets. Certainly any of us are wrong from time ti time, but I would not be a forecaster for a $7 billion hedge fund and one of the most successful world wide investment companies (in 6 markets, no less), if I was wrong that often

    Jim
    Jul 19 06:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading Opportunities For Upcoming Extreme Weather Conditions [View article]
    There is alot more to weather patterns than El Ninos. Teleconnections, which have to do with ocean temps, blocking patterns, sea ice melt, etc. are just as important if not more so than El Nino at certain times of the year. However, there are very high correlations (for example) with La Nina and below normal soy and corn yields in Argentina, which has a major impact on grain prices last winter. However, one needs to also look at the antarctic oscillation index (google AAO index) and ocean temps around S. America, not just El Nino to make correlation studies with respect to crops and yields. A great site to correlation various world teleconnections to rainfall and temp patterns is here--

    http://1.usa.gov/QCZz7L
    Oct 2 09:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Prices Hit Multi-Year Lows: Winners And Losers [View article]
    Thanks for your comments.
    cheers--
    Jim
    Jan 18 12:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • January Thaw Short-Lived: More Extreme Cold, Argentina's Developing Drought And Commodities [View article]
    Geomagnetic forces are strictly due to changes in the solar flux of the sun. Whether or not if offsets some of the global warming implications longer term, is something up for debate. I personally think that the oceans are absorbing a lot more of co2. The short term slowing of global warming probably is just that, short term in nature. Record heat in Australia recently, Alaska and much of Europe continues to be a major issue. We can always have short term cycles of colder weather, but parts per million of Co2 continue to increase
    JIm
    Jan 15 05:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big Northeastern Snow Storm; Cold Winter, Early El Nino Signs And Commodities [View article]
    NO, MY original forecast was for a very cold January with the highest confidence versus December...
    Jim
    Dec 31 02:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Inactive Sun: Preliminary Look At Winter, Crude Oil/Natural Gas [View article]
    http://bit.ly/1dNZpXX
    Nov 18 11:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Inactive Sun: Preliminary Look At Winter, Crude Oil/Natural Gas [View article]
    No, a fellow named Joe D'Aleo, former teach of mine at Lyndon State College in the early 1980's, who started the Weather Channel did, years ago
    Nov 18 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Brazilian Coffee Frost Scare In Years? Will The Eastern Heat Break? [View article]
    I don't listen to other weather services. Parana may get down to 0 to +2 C, but they grow a lot less coffee than 15-20 years ago. Southern Sao Paulo maybe +2 to +4 Celcisus with some light frost possible. Coffee is very volatile right now. Usually with these things, it is buy on rumor sell on fact, unless it hits Minas Gerias, the main area. Realstically, there are huge supplies out there and longer term barring any production issues next year, coffee could go down to $1.00. The last big freeze was really in 1994 which devastated more than 10-15 million bags of the Brazil crop. This one may be less than 1-2 million bags, so I cannot say with great confidence it will have a major impact. Best thing to do is open a commodity account and do a lot of short term futures trading and with options...
    Jul 19 05:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Developing A Longer-Term View In Commodities Using Weather [View article]
    THANKS...see latest article. Up 2 am everyday this time of the year. Grains not for the novice or faint hearted right now
    Jul 17 05:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Global Weather Patterns Remain Mostly Bearish For Commodity Prices [View article]
    Speaking of a Bermuda High..yes, there is some suggestion that the +AMO may things a bit hotter in the short term in the east later next week. Not quite sure if it is a long lasting feature. Look for the producing areas and Midwest to see more normal temps. Overall, natural gas has sold off alot and may really need a cool summer to get prices a lot lower. We will see if some of my earlier studies, support this later on.
    Jun 26 02:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Famine, Feast, Floods And Fibonacci: A Look At Commodities And Weather [View article]
    That was my feeling when corn was at $7-$8 months ago, as I forecasted poor demand, great South American crops and US drought to break, but it needs to dry out and I don't see that..too wet...could hurt early crop
    May 30 12:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Drought Easing: A Potential Multi-Billion Dollar Shot In The Arm For The Economy [View article]
    Most studies I look at with teleconnections suggest a wet spring. I look for conditions to slowly improve heading into later March and April with many more systems over the western corn belt.. Long range stuff for the summer is reserved now for clients, unfortuneatly, but will eventually post something later this spring about the summer.
    Cheers
    Jim
    Mar 8 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Drought Easing: A Potential Multi-Billion Dollar Shot In The Arm For The Economy [View article]
    HI Matt I am away right now out west.
    Not really sure about this. It all depends on April-May weather for crops and planting of corn. The market may be oversold a bit, but if crops improve for wheat this spring in Australia, China and the U.S., then wheat will eventually fall another 40-50 cents from here come April/May. It all depends on weather 1-3 months from now, and I will delve into longer range stuff later. True wheat should be a lot higher than corn normally, but the corn situation is a lot tighter than for wheat and hence the spreads have come down. I am taking an overall bearish summer attitude in grains, but we need to see, again, how planting, and crops fare in another few months and whether or not the drought reintensfies. Alot of this move down has been psychological and it is still a long growing season. Wheat has a heavy short position....so any little weather problem may cause short covering later. For now, we have had the move down I was looking for, but could not post this advice, from a few weeks ago on SA, due to client privacy.
    Mar 7 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
38 Comments
6 Likes