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James Sands  

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  • Railroad stocks weak after Kansas City Southern warns [View news story]
    Kansas City Southern's carload performance in 2015 compared to 2014 now is as follows; Q1 0.8%, Q2 (6.2%), YTD (1.5%).

    From a Q2 total volume perspective, KSU is the weakest performer so far; that being said, six of the seven Class I's are having a negative volume performance start to Q2 when compared to last year with the exception being BNSF.
    May 14, 2015. 06:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Railroad stocks weak after Kansas City Southern warns [View news story]
    Makes sense, first 4 weeks for most Class I's in the US during Q2 was worse than Q1 based on carloadings.
    May 14, 2015. 12:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alibaba freezes hiring; shares -2.5% [View news story]
    China is like a research lab based on non-reality. There is no pure competition, so how does one know whether or not any business they are investing in is actually a good business, regardless of "basic good management" opinions.
    Apr 29, 2015. 11:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on GDP miss: Exports slide as dollar strengthens [View news story]
    GDP metrics = no recession on the horizon.

    I am not a human!
    Apr 29, 2015. 10:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MasterCard beats by $0.09, misses on revenue [View news story]
    What was the forecast moving forward??? Somewhat more important I would say....
    Apr 29, 2015. 10:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Trinity Industries Shows Value Despite The Noise [View article]
    Trinity is going to contact the DOJ for information via outside council.
    Apr 25, 2015. 06:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Trinity Industries Shows Value Despite The Noise [View article]
    Posted above:

    Federal False Claims Act case:

    "The District Court has not yet entered a final judgment or determined a civil penalty amount. While the Company believes the District Court does not have the evidence required under the law to quantify civil penalties, the total range of loss in this case, based on the jury’s verdict and Mr. Harman’s calculations for civil penalties, is $525.0 million to $709.0 million, exclusive of attorney's fees, costs, and interest."

    "Pending entry of a final judgment and completion of the Company’s post-trial and appellate activities in this matter, we currently do not believe that a loss is probable, therefore no accrual has been included in the accompanying consolidated financial statements."

    Everyone here should read Note 18 from the new 10-Q.
    Apr 25, 2015. 05:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Helmerich & Payne - More Pain Is Arriving, Stay Cautious For Now [View article]
    Good job Shelby, you must have gotten in below $60/share near the bottom. I'm up around 20% including dividend. It's always a good thing to have something in the game when things are going well.

    James
    Apr 25, 2015. 03:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Trinity Industries Shows Value Despite The Noise [View article]
    Trinity has an average stock price return of 10% per year since 2007. Worst performance is if an assessment is taken from 2006 (Trinity's previous peak before the recession and 6% CAGR to date). Every time period prior to this since 2001 Trinity has consistently averaged 10% per year for stock price returns to date. This of course assumes long-term positions in the company. Dividend now is currently at 1.4% adding increased real gains.

    Long-term, prospects are still looking good, but the current litigation risks are not something to just overlook....

    I bought in a little above $29/share in Feb. After digesting the risks versus opportunities, I'll take another add sub $29/share on Monday (depending on how it opens).

    But I will reserve capital and will be prepared for sub $25/share through the summer.

    Good luck to all! (even shorts)

    James
    Apr 25, 2015. 03:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trinity Industries Shows Value Despite The Noise [View article]
    Just to be clear:

    "Revenues from sales of the ET Plus in the United States, included in the Construction Products Group, totaled approximately $35.1 million and $46.0 million for the years ended December 31, 2014 and 2013, respectively, and 0.6% and 1.1% of the Company’s consolidated revenues, respectively, for those years."
    Apr 25, 2015. 01:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trinity Industries Shows Value Despite The Noise [View article]
    Let's make sure we keep a transparent understanding of circumstances from the recently filed 10-Q.

    Note 18:

    "Revenues from sales of the ET Plus in the United States, included in the Construction Products Group, totaled approximately $35.1 million and $46.0 million for the years ended December 31, 2014 and 2013, respectively, and 0.6% and 1.1% of the Company’s consolidated revenues, respectively, for those years."

    Federal False Claims Act case:

    "The District Court has not yet entered a final judgment or determined a civil penalty amount. While the Company believes the District Court does not have the evidence required under the law to quantify civil penalties, the total range of loss in this case, based on the jury’s verdict and Mr. Harman’s calculations for civil penalties, is $525.0 million to $709.0 million, exclusive of attorney's fees, costs, and interest."

    "Pending entry of a final judgment and completion of the Company’s post-trial and appellate activities in this matter, we currently do not believe that a loss is probable, therefore no accrual has been included in the accompanying consolidated financial statements."

    Crash testing and FHWA assessments:

    "A second FHWA-AASHTO joint task force is doing further evaluation of the ET Plus. The FHWA has reported that this evaluation is expected to be completed early this summer. When the findings of this second task force are released, the Company will perform a thorough analysis regarding the resumption of any shipments of the ET Plus to customers."

    State, county and municipal actions:

    "Trinity is aware of 41 states that have removed the ET Plus from their respective qualified products list." One less than from the 10-K filing disclosure.

    "The Company believes each of these class action lawsuits is without merit and intends to vigorously defend all allegations. While the financial impacts of these three actions are currently unknown, they could be material."

    Product liability cases; law firm investigations:

    "The Company carries general liability insurance to mitigate the impact of adverse verdict exposures in these product liability cases."

    "The Company is aware that several law firms are investigating whether the Company and certain of its officers and directors breached their fiduciary duties relating to modifications made to the ET Plus and/or violated federal securities laws. We believe these investigations will be concluded without substantive results. However, the Company will incur legal expenses and related costs in responding to these investigations."

    DOJ Investigation:

    The company has engaged outside council to contact the DOJ to find out information.

    The only thing that has fundamentally changed from the 10-K filing is a new class action lawsuit so there are now 3, and the DOJ news.

    Good luck to all!

    James
    Apr 25, 2015. 12:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Helmerich & Payne - More Pain Is Arriving, Stay Cautious For Now [View article]
    "I am puzzled why the company continues to make huge capital investments."

    New rig technologies are going to help HP take further market share regardless of what type of oil price environment we are in over the next decade. HP's capex will reduce more significantly during the next FY.

    Similar trend was prevalent in the last down cycle.
    Apr 25, 2015. 11:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Trinity beats by $0.17, beats on revenue [View news story]
    What was said on the earnings call regarding the DOJ allegations? This is most likely why the stock is dropping today.

    I'm assuming Trinity didn't say much at all so the market thinks to sell rather than take the risk of the worst scenario.
    Apr 24, 2015. 12:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport McMoRan considers IPO of U.S. E&P business, vindicating skeptics [View news story]
    I don't get Freeport's strategies at all...
    Apr 23, 2015. 08:04 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Illumina: And The Beat Goes On [View article]
    SQNM is on a good streak, I got in around $3.77/share March 9th including transaction cost and am up near 20%.

    I always wondered since the recent agreement went through via both ILMN and SQNM's patents, that maybe ILMN would acquire them outright.

    James
    Apr 23, 2015. 11:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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