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James Sands  

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  • Despite A 37.5% Reduction In Dividend, TAL International Is Still Attractive [View article]
    Thanks for the points as I think we are pretty much in agreement.

    My observational issue when seeing what is written and said on SA is, a lot of dividend seeking investors go for these companies without truly understanding their risk....I don't see what an average dividend investor would gain from this type of exposure.

    I could see someone who is a risk taker looking for diversification being exposed to these companies. And obviously, mutual funds and portfolio managers will have some sort of exposure to these types of businesses.

    To your point, Textainer touted themselves for holding their dividend during the Great Recession which apparently was the worst economic time since the Great Depression.

    Today's environment as you mention is no Great Recession, yet Textainer is crushed more than its peers with both Textainer and TAL cutting dividends severely in both cases. Today's environment is more severe because of the supply glut which places more risk, despite the industry being in a stronger global economic cycle. Anyone exposed to shipping lines is in a different world, just as rails and trucks are facing specific headwinds besides fuel surcharges decreasing.

    Lastly, I would just add that I personally would not invest in these companies even if there is upside potential as I would rather choose a company with stronger fundamentals. From a leverage/risk perspective, the container lessors offer near the highest risk when comparing all major freight industries like rail, trucking, air freight/package delivery, logistics services, and shipping lines.

    Thanks again for the responses.

    Nov 29, 2015. 05:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite A 37.5% Reduction In Dividend, TAL International Is Still Attractive [View article]
    There is just too much supply out there right now. Average container rates have fallen substantially. I wouldn't touch any container lessors until rates are showing strength again.

    Additionally, there is not one container lessor which is publicly traded which does not need to play the borrowing game. I.E. not one of these companies can survive without excessive debt levels; good times or bad.

    Plenty of other options in the freight sector for investment considerations. Container lessors are a risky and very volatile option for income seekers; usually these two don't fit well together.
    Nov 26, 2015. 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Pacific Seeks RR Deal [View article]

    My hunch is that similar to a Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern merger attempt (speculation was on this a little while ago), it would create a dominant West Coast to East Coast major rail operator service.

    This means direct rail service from LA/LB, Northwest Seaport Alliance and Oakland to NY/NJ, Savannah, Charleston, Virgina etc., all and in-between. This would be highly unfair to the remaining rail operators and the remaining primary east-west rail operators, would attempt to consolidate with CSX.

    Ultimately what you would get hypothetically would be (CP/NS) (UP/CSX) (BNSF/KSU) (CN/Genesse) or some variation of this sort of outcome; roughly going from 7 Class Is to 4 in some manner.

    Rails already operate in an oligopoly like structure and my gut is that the STB would not necessarily let consolidation go much further than it already has. I don't see how one mega merger would not trigger a few more and I don't think this is what regulators are looking at opening up.

    Nov 10, 2015. 04:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Pacific Seeks RR Deal [View article]
    I would suspect any merging of the Class I RRs is going to have a very slim chance at getting approved by antitrust laws.....possible exception being KSU or short lines
    Nov 10, 2015. 02:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Riddle Me This On Amazon Prime [View article]
    Tend to agree with Paulo's statement. I know many who got prime recently, especially women just having new babies and they have been talking it up about how they can get baby-related stuff delivered and watch video while nursing, etc.

    When I did a free trial myself, the first thing I did was watch some video to see what was available.

    New users = an uptick in video usage typically, whether it lasts is debatable.
    Jul 19, 2015. 11:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Albertsons gets set for IPO [View news story]
    Used to be public, got bought out and now is going back to the markets eh....
    Jul 8, 2015. 01:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Railroad stocks weak after Kansas City Southern warns [View news story]
    Kansas City Southern's carload performance in 2015 compared to 2014 now is as follows; Q1 0.8%, Q2 (6.2%), YTD (1.5%).

    From a Q2 total volume perspective, KSU is the weakest performer so far; that being said, six of the seven Class I's are having a negative volume performance start to Q2 when compared to last year with the exception being BNSF.
    May 14, 2015. 06:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Railroad stocks weak after Kansas City Southern warns [View news story]
    Makes sense, first 4 weeks for most Class I's in the US during Q2 was worse than Q1 based on carloadings.
    May 14, 2015. 12:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alibaba freezes hiring; shares -2.5% [View news story]
    China is like a research lab based on non-reality. There is no pure competition, so how does one know whether or not any business they are investing in is actually a good business, regardless of "basic good management" opinions.
    Apr 29, 2015. 11:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on GDP miss: Exports slide as dollar strengthens [View news story]
    GDP metrics = no recession on the horizon.

    I am not a human!
    Apr 29, 2015. 10:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MasterCard beats by $0.09, misses on revenue [View news story]
    What was the forecast moving forward??? Somewhat more important I would say....
    Apr 29, 2015. 10:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Trinity Industries Shows Value Despite The Noise [View article]
    Trinity is going to contact the DOJ for information via outside council.
    Apr 25, 2015. 06:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Trinity Industries Shows Value Despite The Noise [View article]
    Posted above:

    Federal False Claims Act case:

    "The District Court has not yet entered a final judgment or determined a civil penalty amount. While the Company believes the District Court does not have the evidence required under the law to quantify civil penalties, the total range of loss in this case, based on the jury’s verdict and Mr. Harman’s calculations for civil penalties, is $525.0 million to $709.0 million, exclusive of attorney's fees, costs, and interest."

    "Pending entry of a final judgment and completion of the Company’s post-trial and appellate activities in this matter, we currently do not believe that a loss is probable, therefore no accrual has been included in the accompanying consolidated financial statements."

    Everyone here should read Note 18 from the new 10-Q.
    Apr 25, 2015. 05:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Helmerich & Payne - More Pain Is Arriving, Stay Cautious For Now [View article]
    Good job Shelby, you must have gotten in below $60/share near the bottom. I'm up around 20% including dividend. It's always a good thing to have something in the game when things are going well.

    Apr 25, 2015. 03:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Trinity Industries Shows Value Despite The Noise [View article]
    Trinity has an average stock price return of 10% per year since 2007. Worst performance is if an assessment is taken from 2006 (Trinity's previous peak before the recession and 6% CAGR to date). Every time period prior to this since 2001 Trinity has consistently averaged 10% per year for stock price returns to date. This of course assumes long-term positions in the company. Dividend now is currently at 1.4% adding increased real gains.

    Long-term, prospects are still looking good, but the current litigation risks are not something to just overlook....

    I bought in a little above $29/share in Feb. After digesting the risks versus opportunities, I'll take another add sub $29/share on Monday (depending on how it opens).

    But I will reserve capital and will be prepared for sub $25/share through the summer.

    Good luck to all! (even shorts)

    Apr 25, 2015. 03:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment