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James Sands

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  • A Real Dividend Growth Machine: Q1 2014 Review [View article]
    Great job!

    I myself am in the early stages of developing a portfolio (started 2012), but it is not dividend based.

    I like how you articulate and transfer your performance to the audience. I'll have to steal from you and include my expense ratio too.

    Keep it up!

    James
    Apr 17 03:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Wal-Mart money service rattles payments sector [View news story]
    Compared to Walmart Amazon is richly valued, but Amazon's business is changing from e-commerce to other tech services. Not to justify, but Amazon compared to other overvalued tech-peers like Netflix, LinkedIn, Twitter is a much better value. If the company generates 10% in profit 10-years from now (I do not like saying this because the company is a serial underperformer), today's price may be a bargain.

    10% profit is reasonable for any large-scale business, most are around this level even with slow growth. The highest profit margin Amazon has generated between 2000 and 2013 is 3.7% in 2009.

    For this reason, I modeled a conservative 4% profit margin 10 years out. With growth potential pegged to the 2-yr estimates, that places a potential return of 6% per year from today's price accounting for share dilution of 2% per year and a P/E of 30.

    Better investment opportunities out there for growth and earnings. If Amazon were to get to the $175-225 level, then it would be worth considering.
    Apr 17 02:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Individual Investor Portfolio Update: Rebalanced And Geared Up For The Long-Term [View article]
    mannys001,

    I do not have a stocktwits account, sorry.

    Thanks,
    James
    Apr 17 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese Internet stocks rise AH on Alibaba numbers [View news story]
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Apr 16 03:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo +7.5% AH on Alibaba numbers, guidance, display turnaround [View news story]
    September 2012. Growth from 2011 to 2012 was 45%. For 2013, growth slowed to 9%, and forecasts for the next two years, 2014 and 2015 are 5.5% and 6.4% respectively.
    Apr 16 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo +7.5% AH on Alibaba numbers, guidance, display turnaround [View news story]
    I'm not saying Yahoo is a bad company, I'm just saying Yahoo's core business has way more to prove. They have struggled greatly post-recession when looking at competitive peers. Do Google or Facebook have lower revenues post-recession, consider other tech-related businesses such as Microsoft, Amazon, eBay, Netflix, LinkedIn, etc. Other tech companies have core businesses that have recovered and exceeded the recession.

    Yahoo initially owned 46% of Alibaba back in 2005. The company signed agreements with Softbank in the late 90s to create Yahoo Japan and only discloses a 35% stake as of 2011. These holdings have significantly more value and better growth (mostly Alibaba) than Yahoo does. So investors are going to be dependent on how Yahoo manages these investments moving forward to some extent.

    But as sfininvestor states, the action from these minority interests takes place below the revenues and operations, and really comes to light on the cash flow statements. So these are not the core drivers for Yahoo.

    Yahoo's earnings may improve, but in Q1 there were definitely higher costs and expenses. When we exclude the minority interests, Yahoo's free cash flow per share declined 64% year-over-year. Their operating margin declined from 16% to 3%. Their sequential TTM revenue growth improved from negative 6% to negative 5%. I'm more interested in what's under the hood, than the flashy looks of Alibaba.

    Yahoo's future earnings growth is not going to offer investors better long-term opportunities versus peers when revenues are growing below 5% per year. This is why Apple does not appreciate much and is paying a dividend instead.
    Apr 16 11:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese Internet stocks rise AH on Alibaba numbers [View news story]
    nedilwo,

    Weibo will be interesting, since Sina will own over 50% and recognize their operations still, but Alibaba will own near 35%. If Sina eventually becomes a minority owner, I do agree that they will be challenged to grow their business, similar as the situation that Yahoo is in.
    Apr 16 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese Internet stocks rise AH on Alibaba numbers [View news story]
    Alibaba has not filed any information with the SEC yet. They are supposed to file an F-1 draft prospectus leading up to their listing.

    Weibo has filed their F-1 with three amended versions and they have filed a "Certification by the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation approving securities for listing", which means they will list soon. A maximum offering price of $19 has been disclosed.
    Apr 16 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo +7.5% AH on Alibaba numbers, guidance, display turnaround [View news story]
    Just look at TTM P/E based on after-hours price ($36.55)....both companies are near 30xs TTM earnings. Yahoo is overvalued at the moment and any further gains are extra gravy...and not the good Thanksgiving kind either.

    I will say that if Yahoo can execute on the mobile side, maybe they can get growth going better. BUT (a big but) Yahoo's TTM revenues are still near 40% lower than 2008 levels. This is pretty poor when considering all other tech are growing at much more rapid rates.

    Every time we get an update on Yahoo, it is never unaccompanied by Alibaba. Yahoo has not achieved much change within revenue segments for any sustained period. If anything it has been the complete opposite over the past 12 quarters (declining growth). So 1% growth driven by their "other" category still leaves much to be proven, as search and display still continue to decline.
    Apr 15 11:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo +7.5% AH on Alibaba numbers, guidance, display turnaround [View news story]
    Just not sold, all the hype is surrounding Alibaba while Yahoo is estimated to grow 1.5 and 3% the next two years.....meanwhile, Google and Facebook continue to outperform significantly on advertising growth.

    Yahoo should consider cashing out Alibaba and paying a dividend if their growth story can't break 5%. This is where Apple is from a growth standpoint, however, Apple has a tad-bit more scale.

    Does anyone here believe that Yahoo should be equally valued with Google? This is where they are now in after-hours.

    Glad Yahoo is getting its margins more healthy, but long-term, much better opportunities are out there for investment considerations, especially for growth. Yahoo deserves an increased valuation, but not on par with Google and certainly not near a P/E at 30. High teens to low 20s is where Yahoo should be valued.
    Apr 15 09:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese Internet stocks rise AH on Alibaba numbers [View news story]
    Sina's growth is pegged to Weibo.
    Apr 15 07:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • E-Commerce China Dangdang Faces An Uphill Climb In China's Highly Competitive E-Commerce Market [View article]
    Thanks for the comment Kenny.
    Apr 15 10:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo higher; SunTrust upgrades, gives Alibaba $300B long-term valuation [View news story]
    Yea, I guess flat revenue growth is something to get excited about the next couple of years? 2015 revenue estimates are still down over 36% from 2008 numbers. Yahoo has lost considerable market share.

    For tech, a company like yahoo is lackluster. Great to see improving margins, but we are not talking about operating systems here, we are talking about advertising, which continues to grow robustly and is being dominated by Google and Facebook on both the Web and Mobile.

    If Yahoo were going to get top-line growth back to double digits, then it would merit some interest. Aside from that, there are much better investment options for tech, in the U.S. and abroad.
    Apr 14 12:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo higher; SunTrust upgrades, gives Alibaba $300B long-term valuation [View news story]
    All of this sounds great for Alibaba. Yahoo's business is going nowhere. Yahoo better hold whatever shares they can.
    Apr 14 11:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing The Ctrip-Qunar M&A Scenarios [View article]
    It makes more sense for Ctrip to acquire Qunar and be a stand-alone. Better for the travel industry in general and better to compete globally in the Asia region.

    I don't think Ctrip wants to be acquired by any larger entity if they are smart. Same goes for potential acquirers.....Regardless, Qunar is where the significant growth is and Baidu already owns this piece. It would appear that Baidu/Qunar have the leverage and that Alibaba acquiring Ctrip would be the worst case scenario for both the travel industry in general and for Ctrip's development of its business segments.

    I would think that Alibaba is going to use its cash to further its marketplace businesses and seek more international growth. It's too speculative with Alibaba right now because they are slow-footing any public information (no draft prospectus out yet, F-1 filing). Who knows if all of the companies within the group will be offered publicly.....
    Apr 13 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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