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James Sands  

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  • Finger Lickin' Value Down At Sanderson Farms [View article]
    Look at today's price movement; 4% variance from high to low with the stock up 1.5% now...

    Corn future plummet now down 4.6% with soybean meal up 1.1%

    I think SF costs are about 3/4 corn and 1/4 soybean meal.....
    Mar 31, 2015. 03:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finger Lickin' Value Down At Sanderson Farms [View article]
    Eco,

    Let me just clarify that I believe Sanderson will potentially beat those expectations. I would not be surprised to see double digit earnings/share.

    I use potentially because we can't predict what corn and soybean meal prices will be during 2016.

    I think that avian bird flu has impacted a little bit, but Sanderson's volatility on a weekly basis has not changed much since last year, so I don't think it is the biggest driver at the moment.

    Also, the crop report is due out today, and expectations are for more soybeans to be planted and less corn based on planted acres. With supply from South America holding strong, prices could possibly remain stable or go a little lower. Weather is always another large variable.

    With the new plant in NC, I expect more risk adding to volatility. Regardless SF is positioning itself to take more market share by adding capacity (no one else is doing this) and this should growth the business 15-30% with both new facilities up and running.

    I'm long at $81/share and looking to average only if the stock gets weak to the $73/share level or lower.

    Keeping up with Sanderson's reports and presentations is pretty spot on information for the company perspective. Also talking with management is quite accessible.

    Thanks,
    James
    Mar 31, 2015. 01:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Finger Lickin' Value Down At Sanderson Farms [View article]
    Econovan,

    The $7.40/share is actually up from $4.50/share or so. Expectations are for commodity prices to increase eventually. Analysts think that the low-price cycle for corn and soybean meal will end sooner rather than later. This is probably due to the amount of change from the last cycle being more fresh in their minds.

    Since 2000, there have been 5 year periods where Sanderson experienced a longer cycle of lower costs. We could even see a 7 year cycle possibly.

    The risk is that when the cycle turns sour, Sanderson could go negative on the P/L side. But this expectation is weighing on the stock price.

    Analysts basically assume a P/E of 12-12.5 during "normal" cycles for value. For 2016, this puts the stock price at $85-92/share.

    James
    Mar 31, 2015. 12:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finger Lickin' Value Down At Sanderson Farms [View article]
    Fortunate for SAFM investors, PPC was the one to go bust....
    Mar 31, 2015. 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Railroad Correction Justified? [View article]
    Michael,

    I'm also not so certain that UP will underperform on estimates. We need to keep an eye on where the estimates fall as the date gets closer. I think that both rail and trucking have some pricing power that may offset some too.

    Thanks,
    James
    Mar 31, 2015. 11:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mobileye: A Great Investment Opportunity, But At What Price? [View article]
    Yea thanks for bringing that up. I'm sure you are familiar with the YouTube video clip of Professor Shasua from Mobileye claiming that the NVIDIA chip is actually a Mobileye chip.

    The link below has what appears to be a NVIDIA employee strongly refuting the claim:

    http://bit.ly/1ElXlHn

    From a comprehensive technology perspective, Mobileye is a leader and poised to grow as the market progresses. Both NVIDIA and Toshiba among others are looking to compete, technology superiority and capabilities, and of course cost will drive market penetration.

    No guarantees though.

    Depending on risk appetite and tolerance, NVIDIA could serve as an investment opportunity to play this growth potential.

    I personally am interested in Mobileye because their entire business is focused on this market, versus a larger company.

    Thanks,
    James
    Mar 29, 2015. 02:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Union Pacific Struggles To Grow Revenue In Q1 [View article]
    http://bit.ly/1bFi24T

    http://bit.ly/1rm5ru2
    Mar 28, 2015. 06:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Railroad Correction Justified? [View article]
    Thanks for the article Michael.

    Just added more UP slightly above the $108/share mark.

    James
    Mar 27, 2015. 12:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Will Be No Oil Storage Crisis In 2015 [View article]
    There is speculation for every product consumed as every product is manufactured by commodities. It just all depends on how far the manufacturing process goes to the retail consumer level, leading to commodity fluctuations impacting retail prices.
    Mar 27, 2015. 01:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ACADIA Pharmaceuticals At $30: The Upside Doesn't Justify The Risk [View article]
    Early AM:

    http://yhoo.it/1E60fQk
    Mar 26, 2015. 03:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mobileye: A Great Investment Opportunity, But At What Price? [View article]
    NVE$TOR,

    I agree that Mobileye is in the midst of an exciting opportunity. Volatility will be a factor though as this week has displayed.

    James
    Mar 26, 2015. 03:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mobileye: A Great Investment Opportunity, But At What Price? [View article]
    Thanks for the read and comments Dampflok.
    Mar 26, 2015. 03:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Facebook Can Use Messenger Platform To Create Billions Of Dollars [View article]
    Don't we find it interesting that despite Paypal's growth, MasterCard and Visa continue to grow and dominate their network markets????? Not so sure that digital payments from one or multiple players for that matter will serve as replacement anytime soon.
    Mar 25, 2015. 06:23 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook launches embedded videos, mobile ad exchange, IoT SDKs [View news story]
    AD,

    A bit short-sighted, Google finished down 2% and Twitter was down almost 4%, it's called an overall market beat-down; with tech and biotech leading the beatings.
    Mar 25, 2015. 04:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mobileye: A Great Investment Opportunity, But At What Price? [View article]
    SANF,

    Thanks for the comments. From the scenarios it is apparent that net income growth risk is valid. At today's price investors must take on this risk and wait until it pays off, potentially at that.

    As for free cash flow, Mobileye definitely is not in a situation where they do not produce free cash flow. They generated $50 million in free cash flow during 2014. The company did not guide on their SBC so we are left with making assumptions. SBC will be the biggest impact versus GAAP net income moving forward.

    I assumed 15% and 12% growth depending on the scenario for SBC moving forward. Once we get quarterly and annual growth for 2015, we can adjust estimates. If Mobileye increases SBC 30% or more during 2015, the valuation would get even worse.

    Thanks,
    James
    Mar 25, 2015. 04:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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