James Shaw

September All Over Again?

Are you copying my article publisahed on October 2, 2009?

Here is the link:

seekingalpha.com/artic...

Sentiment Overview: Surprising Increase in Optimism

My view on near term market direction:

Market has made seven consecutive monthly gains since March this year. Soon or later, market will have a real correction, no doubt about it.

Also once the correction comes, it will be quick and severe.

Now the sentiment indicators seems giving us conflict signals.

That means, we will not see big market correction in sight but we will not see big runs either near term.

That is, after last week's big drop, I believe that we will see ups this week.

Most likely, real correction will happen early next year.

Will October's Market Mimic September's Comeback?

You are right on the employment numbers but market did quite good today:

Down at open but come back later and closed with a small loss.

Next week will be UP and UP.

Employment is only one of many economy indicators.

- US will see positive GDP in Q3;

- Consumer started spending, personal income sees growth again;

- Technology sector has been strong, chip sector in particular. Chip orders have been up for 6 consecutive months. Intel upped its numbers several times.

- Many companies made remarkable turnaround in Q2, turned from big losses to profitable one. Big banks, big insurance companies, REIt's, Newspapers, chip companies, ...

Actually we have turned bullish from November 2008: We claimed early this year that 2009 will be once in a life time investment opportunity.

Now is still not too late to enter the market.


On Oct 02 09:03 AM Old Trader wrote:

> This morning's employment numbers don't bode fell for an "up" day
> today, either.

Will October's Market Mimic September's Comeback?

Our stand is very clear as can be seen in the post;

1. We believe that October will be an up month again:

"We made a prediction in early May that the market would see consecutive monthly gains up to the end of this year (that is, we will see 10 non-stopping monthly gains this year)."

2. We think that October may minic September's trend:

"Big loss first day, flat second day and will resume its up move next week."

"We are quite bullish on the market's future direction."

Another Tough Month

Dow bottom will be in 6000 range before reversal.

March will be another 10%+ down month.

April is earning release month and the earnings could not be good for more companies.

The key is future projection.

Stock price is directly tied to companies' earnings. A rally will occured either April or May.

Will There Be an Obama Bounce?

I believe that market will be an up week this week. Tomorrow is hard to say.

I am a little bias toward an up day even futures are all down now.

So tomorrow opens gapped down but recovered during the day.