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James Shell

 
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  • The Abbott Labs/AbbVie Split Strategy: Cash Out, Hold, Reinvest? [View article]
    Keep in mind that in a lot of these spinoff situations, it is quite common for their to be sort of a post-partum depression... if you would like to see an example of this, check the stock chart of COP when it split off with PSX. In that case it took nearly 6 months, and a couple of quarterly reports for this stuff to settle out...

    So I would have to say that the fact these companies are both still looking better than they were a year ago is a net positive.
    Feb 14, 2013. 09:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Abbott Labs/AbbVie Split Strategy: Cash Out, Hold, Reinvest? [View article]
    thanks for your correction. I will submit an edited version promptly.
    Feb 14, 2013. 09:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Abbott Labs/AbbVie Split Strategy: Cash Out, Hold, Reinvest? [View article]
    Thanks for your correction. I will submit an edited version promptly.
    Feb 14, 2013. 09:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Upside Of Annaly's Forward Business Plan [View article]
    You are right, of course, but you'd better believe that the management wakes up every morning knowing that they are going to have to write roughly a $1B check every quarter for their 1.9 Billion shareholders, and if they are forced to cut the dividend, that will cause a lot of problems for them. Whether they write the check to the bank, or to the shareholders, I suppose to them comes to the same.

    It is quite true that the "shareholders" in this industry receive a distribution of the remainder of the profits once all of the expenses are paid, by the very definition of the business. But, it's in the shareholders' interest to have the business continue to sustain their dividends at the current level if for no other reason than to preserve their equity. The management also wants to support the share price.

    So, in essence, given the strong urge to keep the share price stable, the managers are going to look at alternatives such as the preferred stock and debt as lower "cost" sources of capital.
    Dec 4, 2012. 07:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Upside Of Annaly's Forward Business Plan [View article]
    Here is my theory on this: These mREIT managers have to hate a moving target. If they know, with some degree of certainty, that interest rates will either move consistently in one direction or the other or stay stable, they can make their changes and do their financial engineering and come out fine.

    What drives them crazy is what happened in mid-2011 when all of the Greek Flu happened, and interest rates, already at multi-decade lows, went down unexpectedly.
    Dec 4, 2012. 07:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Upside Of Annaly's Forward Business Plan [View article]
    In the article linked above, we pointed out that Crexus, with a portfolio of around $700M, iso in the grand scheme of things, we are not talking about a major portion of the portfolio yet, but it does indicate a willingness to change what they are doing...
    Dec 4, 2012. 07:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Upside Of Annaly's Forward Business Plan [View article]
    What I mean is that the overall market has been going through a lot of drama lately, what with the Euro peril, post-election-partum depression, and a lot of psychoses, and a general downdraft that affects everything could easily move this stock 35 cents on a given day.

    We analytical people can do a lot of work on the basis of value, understand the overall business strategy and work hard to try to understand the fundamentals, and then have the whole thing wiped out by the overreaction of some underpaid security guard in Egypt who chooses to fire into a crowd of protestors, which actually happened a year or two ago. . go figure.
    Dec 4, 2012. 07:06 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysis: The American Capital Agency And Annaly Capital Management Share Buybacks [View article]
    Actually that is the very definition of preferred stock. It is usually part of the corporate by-laws and there may also be legal requirements that give the preferred shareholders priority.

    I will check into this at some point to confirm what the rules are for AGNC and NLY.
    Nov 14, 2012. 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysis: The American Capital Agency And Annaly Capital Management Share Buybacks [View article]
    The problem is that a lot of people assume that dividends will remain constant or increase forever.

    There is a calculation you can do to the effect that at the current dividend of 15% per year and shrinking, and a stock price of X and shrinking, that you're still better off investing in some of these mREITs than you are in XOM, with a 2% dividend and a company that smaller than it was in 2008 in market cap.

    The more this chaos happens, the more I am liking the preferred stocks of these two big REITs. A nice 7.5 or 8% dividend, some price stability... I don't see a downside.
    Nov 14, 2012. 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysis: The American Capital Agency And Annaly Capital Management Share Buybacks [View article]
    You are exactly right, they can, all other things being equal, increase leverage to maintain the same size of portfolio. They do tend to keep their leverage fairly constant, because of their overall operating strategy.
    Nov 14, 2012. 11:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dissecting The Third Quarter American Capital Agency And Annaly Capital Management Earnings Releases [View article]
    With a few exceptions all of the financial stocks are being beaten up right now, because of continued uncertainty in the marketplace.

    In addition to the normal amount of chaos, we are having to deal with turbulence in the overall marketplace.
    Nov 14, 2012. 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coping With Mortgage REIT Chaos Part II: Additional Thoughts [View article]
    As you can see above, I have 405 comments on my 110 articles, an average of just under 4 per article, but it is true that in the last month my comment rate is a little lower...
    Oct 18, 2012. 07:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coping With Mortgage REIT Chaos Part II: Additional Thoughts [View article]
    I think that the SEC requires anyone who makes a transaction that is over a certain percentage of the outstanding shares of a stock is required to report it. Someone will have to refresh my memory on what that number is.

    And certain officers are required to report transactions to the SEC of any amount.
    Oct 18, 2012. 07:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coping With Mortgage REIT Chaos Part II: Additional Thoughts [View article]
    I actually used the words "flash crash" in my original draft of this article, but I opted to tone it down a bit...
    Oct 18, 2012. 07:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coping With Mortgage REIT Chaos Part II: Additional Thoughts [View article]
    Here is my point: If I thought there was a fundamental problem with this group that caused mass exodus from the stocks, AGNC included, I would be right there with them.

    But, if this correction has nothing to do with the underlying fundamentals but is an artifact of some engineer's computer program, I will be inclined to hang in there, because the reason I bought the stock in the first place was to collect the dividends.

    All I am trying to do is sort out which is which. In my opinion at the moment that although there are problems in this group, there is no compelling reason to hit the panic button based solely on Monday's activity.

    I think the actual behavior of AGNC, which is back up to 33 at the moment, is vindication of this.... we will see;
    Oct 18, 2012. 07:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
416 Comments
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