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James Shell  

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  • Coping With Mortgage REIT Chaos Part II: Additional Thoughts [View article]
    My evolving opinion on all of these preferreds, NLY included, is that they might ultimately be the way to go in mREITs. No volatility, a nice 7 to 8% dividend that has precedence over the common, and even though you are walking away from a potential higher ROR it would not take too may corrections of the underlying stock to make up for it.

    a secure 7.5% in the current era is nothing to sneeze at.
    Oct 18, 2012. 07:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coping With Mortgage REIT Chaos [View article]
    I have another article coming out on this topic. Stay tuned.
    Oct 17, 2012. 11:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coping With Mortgage REIT Chaos [View article]
    Yes, Black Rock Trust is a major holder of both AGNC and NLY. It has a 6.3% dividend, but only went down a couple of percent on Monday, so this approach might insulate you a bit from the volatility that we saw on Monday.

    MORT is another ETF that focuses on this industry, and although it did crash on Monday, it is already back to where it was last week, so the diversification strategy paid off, in that case. MORT pays about 10% dividend, and consists of 100% mortgage REIT investments.
    Oct 17, 2012. 11:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coping With Mortgage REIT Chaos [View article]
    You will enjoy the article that I have pending on this "unusual" activity, if SA will be good enough to post it.

    You are right about the trading aspect. A couple of my followers have communicated some really interesting trading strategies in advance of the dividend date that are really interesting... But as we saw this week, booby traps are everywhere in this business.
    Oct 17, 2012. 11:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage REITs And Risk Management [View article]
    The correction has been made and is reflected in the above table. Thanks for pointing this out.

    BTW I am now even more intrigued by NYMT and will probably go long after the dividend is paid.
    Sep 19, 2012. 08:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage REITs And Risk Management [View article]
    I stand corrected, that number was the PE. The correct dividend yield should be 14.50%. I will try to correct that table.
    Sep 19, 2012. 07:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage REITs And Risk Management [View article]
    It came from Yahoo Finance, and I believe it is the annualized current dividend.
    Sep 19, 2012. 07:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage REITs And Risk Management [View article]
    I agree with this one. Buy after the dividend, as it says above.
    Sep 19, 2012. 07:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For Resource Capital Corporation [View article]
    This whole issue of residential vs. commercial deserves some additional study. If you have a residential mortgage company like MTGE which is leveraged at 8:1 or something, vs. RSO above, which is leveraged at 4:1, is it not true that the management of the company has adjusted the risk for you?

    A second question: What about the conservative NLY? They only deal in residential, agency backed mortgages, but are leveraged at a much lower level.... there, the management has accepted much less risk.

    The reason I put RSO and MTGE in the same category is that they are basically in the same high-dividend, interest rate spread business, and in the grand scheme of things they are more like one another than they are like AAPL or XOM, which actually have products and sell them for a profit.
    Sep 18, 2012. 08:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Revisionist Thinking On Dynex Capital [View article]
    Yes, simple is good. The classic "buy and hold" strategy is quite often the best.
    Aug 30, 2012. 02:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There's Still Upside In The Tesoro/BP Refinery Deal [View article]
    Well, there is one additional calculation to make, that being the refining margin. TSO got $13 per barrel refining margin in the last quarter, HFC, because it is in the middle of the country using landlocked crude oil, got $19.93 per barrel last quarter. So, there should be a little premium on HFC's capacity, just as there should be on WNR's because they are geographically isolated enough so that the bulk of their throughput has favorable economics.
    Aug 20, 2012. 07:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • There's Still Upside In The Tesoro/BP Refinery Deal [View article]
    I actually kind of like HFC

    Holly Frontier
    Market Cap 8,380,000,000
    LTD 1,295,163
    Total 8,381,295,163
    Refining Capacity 443000
    18919.40217
    Aug 17, 2012. 07:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There's Still Upside In The Tesoro/BP Refinery Deal [View article]
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Here are two of the three. WNR: That one was a special case, if I am not mistaken, they made the worst refinery deal ever when they bought that refinery in Virginia for pretty close to 19000 per bpd a few years ago.

    Let's see:

    Market Cap 2,460,000,000
    LTD 450,000,000
    Total 2,910,000,000
    Refining Capacity 151000
    19271.52318
    Aug 17, 2012. 07:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Value Of Phillips 66 [View article]
    Yes, that whole story in the middle of the country is really remarkable. A little OPEC member out in the prairie in North Dakota, and gas in Denver at 3.35 this morning, versus 3.65 in the gas station across the street from where I am because of the landlocked refinery capacity and crude oil glut.

    And you're right, the situation has a little longer to go.
    Aug 17, 2012. 07:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • There's Still Upside In The Tesoro/BP Refinery Deal [View article]
    LOL true enough. I think these stocks should be priced at some function of their ability to make money.

    The situation going on in these refiners is actually unprecedented in history, because of the difference between Brent and WTI and the temporary imbalance of supply of crude oil and refinery capacity in the US Midwest.

    It is not quite like the situation in the 2007 and 2008 time frame when the refiners were trading much higher than they are right now. Demand for the products never really recovered from the 2008 meltdown.
    Aug 15, 2012. 08:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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