James Shell's Instablog

Update: The Future Price Of AGNC Raw Data

Thu, 26 Jul 2012 09:12:52 -0400

1. Current course, Stable spread
Share Increases/Quarter	40,000,000
Effective Leverage	7.84
Spread Stability	1
Income Efficiency	0.93
Dividend Payout	0.96
Yield	0.18
Spread Base Level	1


Quarter	Actual Price	Offering	No Offering
2011-1	29.2	31.11
2011-2	29.74	31.11
2011-3	29.71	31.11
2011-4	28.06	31.11
2012-1	30.07	27.78
2012-2	35	35.00	35.00
2012-3		36.04	38.32
2012-4		35.67	38.32
2013-1		35.34	38.32
2013-2		35.03	38.32
2013-3		34.76	38.32
2013-4		34.50	38.32
2014-1		34.27	38.32

2. Interest Rate Decay, With and Without Share Issuances

Share Growth/Quarter	0
Effective Leverage	7.84
Spread Stability	0.98
Income Efficiency	0.93
Dividend Payout	0.96
Yield	0.18
Yield Decay	1

Quarter	Actual Price	With Offerings	Without Offerings
2011-1	29.2	31.11
2011-2	29.74	31.11
2011-3	29.71	31.11
2011-4	28.06	31.11
2012-1	30.07	27.78
2012-2	35	35.00	35
2012-3		34.61	36.80
2012-4		33.45	36.07
2013-1		32.32	35.34
2013-2		31.21	34.64
2013-3		30.14	33.94
2013-4		29.10	33.27
2014-1		28.10	32.60

3. Interest Rate Spread Slow Increase

Share Growth/Quarter	0
Effective Leverage	7.84
Spread Stability	1.02
Income Efficiency	0.93
Dividend Payout	0.96
Yield	0.18
yield decay	1


Quarter	Actual Price	Offering	No Offering
2011-1	29.2	31.11
2011-2	29.74	31.11
2011-3	29.71	31.11
2011-4	28.06	31.11
2012-1	30.07	27.78
2012-2	35	35.00	35.00
2012-3		37.50	39.87
2012-4		37.99	40.66
2013-1		38.59	41.48
2013-2		39.27	42.31
2013-3		40.03	43.15
2013-4		40.86	44.02
2014-1		41.76741264	44.89655621

4. Stable Rates/Higher Leverage


Share Growth/Quarter	0
Effective Leverage	9.00
Spread Stability	1
Income Efficiency	0.93
Dividend Payout	0.96
Yield	0.18
Yield Stability	0.98

Quarter	Actual Price	With Offerings	Without Offerings
2011-1	29.2	31.11
2011-2	29.74	31.11
2011-3	29.71	31.11
2011-4	28.06	31.11
2012-1	30.07	27.78
2012-2	35	35.00	35.00
2012-3		37.38	38.32
2012-4		37.72	38.32
2013-1		38.03	38.32
2013-2		38.31	38.32
2013-3		38.57	38.32
2013-4		38.82	38.32
2014-1		39.05	38.32

5. Decaying Yield
	AGNC Price Model	Enter Values Here
	Share Growth/Quarter	40000000
	Effective Leverage	7.84
	Spread Stability	0.98
	Income Efficiency	0.93
	Dividend Payout	0.96
	Yield	0.18
	Yield Stability	0.97

Quarter	Actual Price	With Offerings	Without Offerings
2011-1	29.2	31.11111111
2011-2	29.74	31.11111111
2011-3	29.71	31.11111111
2011-4	28.06	31.11111111
2012-1	30.07	27.77777778
2012-2	35	35	35
2012-3		37.55240285	38.31877842
2012-4		38.10161666	38.31877842
2013-1		38.71781089	38.31877842
2013-2		39.39772802	38.31877842
2013-3		40.13909137	38.31877842
2013-4		40.94040072	38.31877842
2014-1		41.80078424	38.31877842

Dividend Yield Calculations: I updated the "current" dividend yields to reflect the 1.25 dividend that AGNC declared in the second quarter.

1. Current course, Stable spread

Quarter	Actual	Div Stream/Offering	Div Stream No Offering
2011-1	1.4
2011-2	1.4
2011-3	1.4
2011-4	1.4
2012-1	1.25
2012-2	1.25	1.25	1.25
2012-3		1.62181407	1.724345029
2012-4		1.605125577	1.724345029
2013-1		1.590126097	1.724345029
2013-2		1.576516966	1.724345029
2013-3		1.564071411	1.724345029
2013-4		1.552613315	1.724345029
2014-1		1.542003257	1.724345029

2. Interest Rate Decay, With and Without Share Issuances









Quarter	Actual	With Offerings	Without Offerings
2011-1	1.4
2011-2	1.4
2011-3	1.4
2011-4	1.4
2012-1	1.25
2012-2	1.25	1.25	1.25
2012-3		1.557590233	1.656060966
2012-4		1.505238775	1.622939747
2013-1		1.454190779	1.590480952
2013-2		1.404548892	1.558671333
2013-3		1.356372486	1.527497906
2013-4		1.309690853	1.496947948
2014-1		1.264512037	1.467008989

3. Interest Rate Spread Slow Increase










Quarter	Actual	With Offerings	Without Offerings
2011-1	1.4
2011-2	1.4
2011-3	1.4
2011-4	1.4
2012-1	1.25
2012-2	1.25	1.25	1.25
2012-3		1.687335358	1.794008568
2012-4		1.709690176	1.82988874
2013-1		1.736395864	1.866486514
2013-2		1.766999502	1.903816245
2013-3		1.801188229	1.94189257
2013-4		1.838747378	1.980730421
2014-1		1.879533569	2.020345029

4. Stable Rates/Higher Leverage










Quarter	Actual	With Offerings	Without Offerings
2011-1	1.4
2011-2	1.4
2011-3	1.4
2011-4	1.4
2012-1	1.25
2012-2	1.25	1.25	1.25
2012-3		1.682282383	1.724345029
2012-4		1.697337935	1.724345029
2013-1		1.711132793	1.724345029
2013-2		1.723869708	1.724345029
2013-3		1.735705622	1.724345029
2013-4		1.746764567	1.724345029
2014-1		1.757146316	1.724345029


5. Decaying Yield









Quarter	Actual	With Offerings	Without Offerings
2011-1	1.4
2011-2	1.4
2011-3	1.4
2011-4	1.4
2012-1	1.25
2012-2	1.25	1.25	1.25
2012-3		1.659500843	1.724345029
2012-4		1.650096052	1.724345029
2013-1		1.643246408	1.724345029
2013-2		1.638661125	1.724345029
2013-3		1.63610656	1.724345029
2013-4		1.635393298	1.724345029
2014-1		1.636366689	1.724345029

Disclosure: I am long [[AGNC]].

Additional disclosure: I am also long ARR, CYS, IVR, TWO

Raw Data: The Future Price Of AGNC

Tue, 17 Jul 2012 20:16:17 -0400

Thanks for clicking on this. Here is my rationale:

Each quarterly stock issuance raises capital. The amount is based on the number of shares and the offering price.

The capital can be applied at a given leverage rate, as indicated in the financials for AGNC, to expand the portfolio. The company can then use the portfolio at the interest rate spread, which last quarter was 2.31% to derive the income.

It can and will distribute the income in the form of dividends at a known rate.

Leverage:

If you calculate this on the basis of the table on page 56 of the AGNC annual report and calculate the amount of funds raised during 2011 and compare that to the change in portfolio value, the result is reasonably close to the average 7.86:1 leverage value that is stated in AGNC's investor fact sheet. Using the leverage to compute the amount of incremental portfolio that AGNC can add with each incremental share issuance, we can then use the interest rate spread data to compute the amount of income that can be derived from the portfolio:

Quarter	Leverage	Interest Spread %
2011-1	7.9	2.58
2011-2	7.6	2.46
2011-3	7.9	2.14
2011-4	7.6	1.9
2012-1	8.2	2.31
Average	7.84

Income derived from the increased portfolio:

We have to make a couple of adjustments. If we multiply the portfolio value by the interest rate spread, we get a number that is slightly different from the actual net interest income, and there is a similar adjustment when translating from net income to actual dividend payout:

Quarter	Actual Interest Income	Theo Int Income	Efficiency
2011-1	164	181.8384	0.9019
2011-2	201	245.385	0.8191
2011-3	232	224.165	1.0350
2011-4	263	260.3	1.0104
2012-1	406	465.465	0.8722
		Average Efficiency	0.9277

Quarter	Div Payout	Interest Income ($M)	Ratio
2011-1	$ 126,000,000	$ 164,000,000	0.7683
2011-2	$ 182,000,000	$ 201,000,000	0.9055
2011-3	$ 252,000,000	$ 232,000,000	1.0862
2011-4	$ 294,000,000	$ 263,000,000	1.1179
2012-1	$ 301,250,000	$ 406,000,000	0.7420
		Average Payout Ratio	0.9240

Here is the spreadsheet model I've used:

These are the independent variables:

Share Growth/Quarter	40,000,000
Effective Leverage	7.84
Spread Stability	1
Income Efficiency	0.93
Dividend Payout	0.96
Yield	0.18
Yield Stability	1

Income efficiency is the ratio of "theoretical net income", which is the portfolio value times the interest rate spread, and "actual net income" from the financials. The reason there is a difference is the interest expense and other operating expenses.

The dividend payout ratio is relatively straightforward. It's the average percentage that is paid out in dividends.

Interest Stability: I built the model to test what would happen in scenarios of increasing or decreasing interest rate spread. 1.0 is no change, 1.02 is a 2% increase in spread, .98 is a 2% decrease, for example.

Yield Stability is the same thing: 1.0 is steady yield, using the initial assumption of 18%, 1.02 would be a 2% increase, .98 would be a 2% decrease. A decrease in yield is not all bad, it represents an increase in the stock price.

Here's the first half of the data table:

Quarter	Common Shares	Interest Spread	Portfolio Value	Interest Income
2011-1	90,000,000	2.58	28,192,000,000	164,000,000
2011-2	130,000,000	2.46	39,900,000,000	201,000,000
2011-3	180,000,000	2.14	41,900,000,000	232,000,000
2011-4	210,000,000	1.9	54,800,000,000	263,000,000
2012-1	241,000,000	2.31	80,600,000,000	406,000,000
2012-2	281,000,000	2.31	89,311,111,113	479,667,650
2012-3	321,000,000	2.31	100,731,184,189	541,002,007
2012-4	361,000,000	2.31	112,006,497,472	601,558,896
2013-1	401,000,000	2.31	123,154,722,469	661,433,226
2013-2	441,000,000	2.31	134,189,825,888	720,700,007
2013-3	481,000,000	2.31	145,123,111,926	779,419,953
2013-4	521,000,000	2.31	155,963,909,038	837,643,164
2014-1	561,000,000	2.31	166,720,040,431	895,411,657

and here is the second half:

Div Payout	Div/Share	Actual Price	Model Price
126,000,000	1.4	29.2	31.11
182,000,000	1.4	29.74	31.11
252,000,000	1.4	29.71	31.11
294,000,000	1.4	28.06	31.11
301,250,000	1.25	30.07	27.78
460,480,944	1.64	35	36.42
519,361,927	1.62		35.95	0.18
577,496,540	1.60		35.55	0.18
634,975,897	1.58		35.19	0.18
691,872,007	1.57		34.86	0.18
748,243,155	1.56		34.57	0.18
804,137,438	1.54		34.30	0.18
859,595,191	1.53		34.05	0.18
Dividends	11.00

The model price is the output I used for the graphs in the main article.

Here is Scenario 1, the base case;

1. Current course, Stable spread
Share Increases/Quarter	0
Effective Leverage	7.84
Spread Stability	1
Income Efficiency	0.93
Dividend Payout	0.96
Yield	0.18
Spread Base Level	1


Quarter	Actual Price	With Offerings	Without Offerings
2011-1	29.2	31.11	31.11
2011-2	29.74	31.11	31.11
2011-3	29.71	31.11	31.11
2011-4	28.06	31.11	31.11
2012-1	30.07	27.78	27.78
2012-2	35	36.42	38.32
2012-3		35.95	38.32
2012-4		35.55	38.32
2013-1		35.19	38.32
2013-2		34.86	38.32
2013-3		34.57	38.32
2013-4		34.30	38.32
2014-1		34.05	38.32

Scenario 2: Decreasing interest rate spread

Share Growth/Quarter	0
Effective Leverage	7.84
Spread Stability	0.98
Income Efficiency	0.93
Dividend Payout	0.96
Yield	0.18
Yield Decay	1

Quarter	Actual Price	With Offerings	Without Offerings
2011-1	29.2	31.11	31.11
2011-2	29.74	31.11	31.11
2011-3	29.71	31.11	31.11
2011-4	28.06	31.11	31.11
2012-1	30.07	27.78	27.78
2012-2	35	35.69	37.55
2012-3		34.45	36.80
2012-4		33.25	36.07
2013-1		32.08	35.34
2013-2		30.95	34.64
2013-3		29.86	33.94
2013-4		28.80	33.27
2014-1		27.78	32.60

Scenario 3:

3. Interest Rate Spread Slow Increase

Share Growth/Quarter	0
Effective Leverage	7.84
Spread Stability	1.05
Income Efficiency	0.93
Dividend Payout	0.96
Yield	0.18
yield decay	1


Quarter	Actual Price	With Offerings	Without Offerings
2011-1	29.2	31.11	31.11
2011-2	29.74	31.11	31.11
2011-3	29.71	31.11	31.11
2011-4	28.06	31.11	31.11
2012-1	30.07	27.78	27.78
2012-2	35	38.24	40.23
2012-3		39.86	42.25
2012-4		41.81	44.36
2013-1		44.08	46.58
2013-2		46.67	48.91
2013-3		49.60	51.35
2013-4		52.89	53.92
2014-1		56.58	56.61

Scenario 4: Increased Leverage

Stable Rates/Higher Leverage


Share Growth/Quarter	0
Effective Leverage	7.84
Spread Stability	1
Income Efficiency	0.93
Dividend Payout	0.96
Yield	0.18
Yield Stability	0.98

Quarter	Actual Price	With Offerings	Without Offerings
2011-1	29.2	31.11	31.11
2011-2	29.74	31.11	31.11
2011-3	29.71	31.11	31.11
2011-4	28.06	31.11	31.11
2012-1	30.07	27.78	27.78
2012-2	35	36.42	38.32
2012-3		37.44	39.90
2012-4		37.93	40.71
2013-1		38.53	41.54
2013-2		39.22	42.39
2013-3		40.00	43.26
2013-4		40.86	44.14
2014-1		41.80	45.04

5. Decaying Yield (stock price steadily going up)

	AGNC Price Model	Enter Values Here
	Share Growth/Quarter	40000000
	Effective Leverage	8
	Spread Stability	0.98
	Income Efficiency	0.93
	Dividend Payout	0.96
	Yield	0.18
	Yield Stability	0.97

Quarter	Actual Price	Issuance	No Issuance
2011-1	29.2	31.11111111	31.11111111
2011-2	29.74	31.11111111	31.11111111
2011-3	29.71	31.11111111	31.11111111
2011-4	28.06	31.11111111	31.11111111
2012-1	30.07	27.77777778	27.77777778
2012-2	35	35.75876639	37.55240286
2012-3		36.77264505	39.1129289
2012-4		36.88665826	39.51615497
2013-1		37.0634053	39.92353801
2013-2		37.29264583	40.33512087
2013-3		37.56694204	40.75094686
2013-4		37.88076038	41.17105972
2014-1		38.22990503	41.59550363

Do with this information what you will.

Disclosure: I am long [[AGNC]].

Air Products Earnings Improvement after Potential APG takeover

Wed, 17 Aug 2011 08:36:40 -0400

Here is my calculation for the amount of expected earnings available to Air Products because if they could take over Airgas.

Airgas has no debt and approximately $400M in STA expense per quarter:

ARG Gross Profit (ttm)	2,290,000,000
ARG Taxes	870,200,000	at 38%
ARG Earnings Cont	1,419,800,000
APD Shares Outstanding	213,000,000
APD Additional EPS	6.7

The difference between ARG's gross profit and their PBT is about $1.5B, which is roughy their annual STA expense.

The opportunity is for Air Products to roughly double its stock price if it can take Airgas' gross operating margin and not take all of its STA.

Naturally, the selling and distribution systems of ARG cannot be completely shut down but even if 25% of it can be reduced, it amounts to an additional $20 on the stock price of Air Products, even valued at their current PE.

At Praxair's PE the benefit in the stock price would be even higher.

Oil Tank Car Rail Shipping Rates

Fri, 12 Aug 2011 11:52:08 -0400

Volume of a Tank Car:

49 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR)
Chapter I
Part 179, Specifications for Tank Cars

Subpart B-General Design Requirements

§179.13 Tank car capacity and gross weight limitation

821	Barrels per Tank Car
3277	Shipping Rate
3.991474	Dollars per Barre;l

So, someone sufficiently determined can get WTI from Tulsa to New Orleans and onto a boat for $4 per barrel.

Add a couple of dollars per barrel to get it to Tulsa and get it from New Orleans to the LOOP and another $1 per barrel to ship it to London, you're still at less than $10 per barrel.

Conoco Phllips Earnings By Quarter

Mon, 18 Jul 2011 13:33:41 -0400

Here is the raw data for the article I am working on about Conoco Phillips' motivation for offloading their refining business:

	Refining Segment	Rest of Company	Shares Outstanding	Stock Price
1q2007	1136	2410	1668847	68
2q2007	2358	2402	1657999	90
3q2007	1307	2366	1644267	84
4q2007	1122	3249	1612179	86
1q2008	520	3619	1582025	79
2q2008	664	4775	1555447	84
3q2008	849	4339	1528187	48
4q2008	289	1200	1486204	55
1q2009	205	635	1495247	42
2q2009	-52	1350	1495700	40
3q2009	99	1404	1498204	52
4q2009	-215	1432	1500983	53
1q2010	-4	2102	1503565	55
2q2010	-279	4443	1501257	52
3q2010	268	2787	1493080	60
4q2011	207	1834	1465794	67
1q2011	482	2,546	1445477	79

Oil Refiners Insider Trading Activity, Second Quarter 2011

Fri, 17 Jun 2011 09:06:12 -0400

Under the ongoing assumption that the operators of a business are in the best position to know what the business is doing, we periodically review the insider trading activity in the Oil Refining group.

Keep in mind that Corporate Officers are people too, and a lot of them are compensated in options and other equity-related ways, and may occasionally have a transaction for non-business and personal reasons. Also the second quarter in this industry is typically the annual maximum in profitability, some of this may be just taking advantage of the seasonality.

The source of this information is Yahoo Finance.

The vast majority of the activity this quarter has been selling, some of it substantial.

There was not a flurry of insider activity before the merger of Frontier Oil and Holly Corporation, in late March, The insiders of Marathon Oil have been net sellers in advance of the upcoming spinoff of their refining business.

Marathon Oil (MRO)

Date	Insider	Shares	Type	Transaction	Value

May 18, 2011	CAMPBELL EILEEN MOfficer	27,402	Direct	Sale at $51.21 - $51.28 per share.	1,404,000²
May 13, 2011	CAMPBELL EILEEN MOfficer	64,200	Direct	Option Exercise at $16.81 per share.	1,079,202
May 13, 2011	CAMPBELL EILEEN MOfficer	36,798	Direct	Disposition (Non Open Market) at $51.18 per share.	1,883,321
May 11, 2011	KERRIGAN SYLVIA JOfficer	13,334	Direct	Option Exercise at $16.81 - $25.84 per share.	N/A
May 11, 2011	KERRIGAN SYLVIA JOfficer	11,375	Direct	Sale at $51.03 - $51.07 per share.	581,000²
May 11, 2011	KERRIGAN SYLVIA JOfficer	1,959	Direct	Disposition (Non Open Market) at $51.04 per share.	99,987
May 2, 2011	KERRIGAN SYLVIA JOfficer	147	Direct	Disposition (Non Open Market) at $53.63 per share.	7,883
Apr 1, 2011	BOYCE GREGORY HDirector	700	Direct	Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $53.55 per share.	37,485
Apr 1, 2011	SCHOFIELD SETH EDirector	700	Direct	Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $53.55 per share.	37,485
Apr 1, 2011	PHELPS MICHAEL E JDirector	700	Direct	Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $53.55 per share.	37,485
Apr 1, 2011	LADER PHILIPDirector	700	Direct	Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $53.55 per share.	37,485
Apr 1, 2011	BRONDEAU PIERRE RDirector	700	Direct	Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $53.55 per share.	37,485
Apr 1, 2011	DAVIS WILLIAM LDirector	700	Direct	Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $53.55 per share.	37,485
Apr 1, 2011	LEE CHARLES RDirector	700	Direct	Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $53.55 per share.	37,485
Apr 1, 2011	DABERKO DAVID ADirector	700	Direct	Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $53.55 per share.	37,485
Apr 1, 2011	USHER THOMAS JDirector	467	Direct	Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $53.55 per share.	25,007
Apr 1, 2011	JACKSON SHIRLEY ADirector	700	Direct	Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $53.55 per share.	37,485
Apr 1, 2011	REILLEY DENNIS HDirector	700	Direct	Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $53.55 per share.	37,485

Tesoro: (TSO)

Date	Insider	Shares	Type	Transaction	Value

May 5, 2011	JACKSON TRACY DAWNOfficer	371	Direct	Disposition (Non Open Market) at $24.27 per share.	9,004
May 5, 2011	GOFF GREGORY JAMESOfficer	8,262	Direct	Disposition (Non Open Market) at $24.27 per share.	200,518
May 5, 2011	GLENEWINKEL ARLEN OOfficer	706	Direct	Disposition (Non Open Market) at $24.27 per share.	17,134
May 5, 2011	FLAGG CLAUDE AOfficer	1,852	Direct	Disposition (Non Open Market) at $24.27 per share.	44,948
May 5, 2011	PARRISH CHARLES SOfficer	1,852	Direct	Disposition (Non Open Market) at $24.27 per share.	44,948
May 5, 2011	SPENDLOVE G SCOTTOfficer	882	Direct	Disposition (Non Open Market) at $24.27 per share.	21,406
May 3, 2011	GOFF GREGORY JAMESOfficer	46,697	Direct	Disposition (Non Open Market) at $25.01 per share.	1,167,891

Valero (VLO)

Date	Insider	Shares	Type	Transaction	Value

Apr 29, 2011	CHOATE JERRY DDirector	4,000	Direct	Option Exercise at $12.26 per share.	49,040
Apr 28, 2011	NICKLES DONALD LDirector	2,686	Direct	Disposition (Non Open Market) at $28.01 per share.	75,234
Apr 28, 2011	NICKLES DONALD LDirector	5,714	Direct	Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share.	N/A
Apr 28, 2011	WATERS STEPHEN MDirector	2,199	Direct	Disposition (Non Open Market) at $28.01 per share.	61,593
Apr 28, 2011	WATERS STEPHEN MDirector	5,714	Direct	Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share.	N/A
Apr 28, 2011	WEISENBURGER RANDALL JDirector	5,714	Direct	Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share.	N/A
Apr 28, 2011	WILKINS RAYFORD JRDirector	517	Direct	Disposition (Non Open Market) at $28.01 per share.	14,481
Apr 28, 2011	WILKINS RAYFORD JRDirector	5,714	Direct	Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share.	N/A
Apr 28, 2011	PROFUSEK ROBERTDirector	2,686	Direct	Disposition (Non Open Market) at $28.01 per share.	75,234
Apr 28, 2011	PROFUSEK ROBERTDirector	5,714	Direct	Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share.	N/A
Apr 28, 2011	CHOATE JERRY DDirector	5,714	Direct	Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share.	N/A
Apr 28, 2011	PURCELL SUSAN KAUFMANDirector	7,633	Direct	Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share.	N/A
Apr 28, 2011	ESCOBEDO RUBEN MDirector	5,714	Direct	Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share.	N/A
Apr 28, 2011	CALGAARD RONALD KDirector	2,686	Direct	Disposition (Non Open Market) at $28.01 per share.	75,234
Apr 28, 2011	CALGAARD RONALD KDirector	5,714	Direct	Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share.	N/A
Apr 28, 2011	MARBUT BOBDirector	5,714	Direct	Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share.	N/A
Apr 11, 2011	EDWARDS S EUGENEOfficer	20,620	Direct	Disposition (Non Open Market) at $28.04 per share.	578,184

Frontier Oil (FTO)

Date	Insider	Shares	Type	Transaction	Value

Apr 25, 2011	SHOOP NANCY ZUPANOfficer	14,798	Direct	Option Exercise at $29.39 per share.	434,913
Apr 5, 2011	JENNINGS MICHAELOfficer	33,294	Direct	Option Exercise at $29.39 per share.	978,510
Apr 5, 2011	JENNINGS MICHAELOfficer	31,786	Direct	Automatic Sale at $31.64 per share.	1,005,709
Apr 4, 2011	ARON DOUG SOfficer	9,866	Direct	Option Exercise at $29.39 per share.	289,961
Apr 4, 2011	ARON DOUG SOfficer	9,866	Direct	Automatic Sale at $30.39 per share.	299,82

Calumet Specialty (CLMT)

May 13, 2011	BARNHART TIMOTHY ROfficer	185	Direct	Option Exercise	N/A
May 13, 2011	MORRIS GEORGE C IIIDirector	15	Direct	Option Exercise	N/A
May 13, 2011	STRAUMINS JENNIFEROfficer	209	Direct	Option Exercise	N/A
May 13, 2011	FUNK ROBERT EDirector	118	Direct	Option Exercise	N/A
May 13, 2011	RUTIGLIANO NICHOLAS JDirector	159	Direct	Option Exercise	N/A
May 13, 2011	CARTER JAMES SDirector	187	Direct	Option Exercise	N/A
May 13, 2011	GRUBE FERDINAND WILLIAMOfficer	243	Direct	Option Exercise	N/A
May 13, 2011	FEHSENFELD FRED M JRDirector	162	Direct	Option Exercise	N/A
May 13, 2011	SMITH JEFFREY DOfficer	58	Direct	Option Exercise	N/A
May 13, 2011	MURRAY RICHARD PATRICK IIOfficer	106	Direct	Option Exercise	N/A
May 13, 2011	MILLS ROBERT MOfficer	96	Direct	Option Exercise	N/A
May 3, 2011	MORRIS GEORGE C IIIDirector	691	Direct	Option Exercise	N/A
May 3, 2011	FUNK ROBERT EDirector	674	Direct	Option Exercise	N/A
May 3, 2011	RUTIGLIANO NICHOLAS JDirector	596	Direct	Option Exercise	N/A
May 3, 2011	CARTER JAMES SDirector	703	Direct	Option Exercise	N/A
May 3, 2011	FEHSENFELD FRED M JRDirector	656	Direct	Option Exercise	N/

Holly Corp (HOC)

Date	Insider	Shares	Type	Transaction	Value

May 12, 2011	TCTC HOLDINGS, LLCBeneficial Owner (10% or more)	N/A	Indirect	Statement of Ownership	N/A
May 12, 2011	HARDAGE RICHARD KEVINDirector	2,137	Direct	Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share.	N/A
May 12, 2011	HARDAGE RICHARD KEVINDirector	N/A	Direct	Statement of Ownership	N/A
May 12, 2011	DAMIRIS GEORGE JOHNOfficer	3,413	Direct	Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share.	N/A
May 12, 2011	MCWATTERS DENISE CLARKOfficer	1,234	Direct	Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share.	N/A
May 12, 2011	BERRY BUFORD PDirector	2,137	Direct	Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share.	N/A
May 12, 2011	SHAW BRUCE ROfficer	2,560	Direct	Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share.	N/A
May 12, 2011	MCKENZIE ROBERT GDirector	2,137	Direct	Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share.	N/A
May 12, 2011	CLIFTON MATTHEW POfficer	14,609	Direct	Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share.	N/A
May 12, 2011	REID JACK PDirector	2,137	Direct	Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share.	N/A
May 12, 2011	LAMP DAVID LOfficer	8,103	Direct	Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share.	N/A
May 12, 2011	VALENTA TOMMY ADirector	2,137	Direct	Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share.	N/A
May 12, 2011	ECHOLS LELDON EDirector	2,137	Direct	Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share.	N/A
May 12, 2011	SURPLUS SCOTT COfficer	1,234	Direct	Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share.	N/A
May 11, 2011	CLIFTON MATTHEW POfficer	8,030	Direct	Disposition (Non Open Market) at $58.52 per share.	469,915
May 11, 2011	LAMP DAVID LOfficer	4,283	Direct	Disposition (Non Open Market) at $58.52 per share.	250,641
Apr 7, 2011	SURPLUS SCOTT COfficer	300	Indirect	Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share.	N/A
Apr 7, 2011	SURPLUS SCOTT COfficer	300	Direct	Disposition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share.	N/A
Apr 1, 2011	LAMP DAVID LOfficer	5,000	Direct	Sale at $61.95 - $61.97 per share.	310,000²
Apr 1, 2011	SURPLUS SCOTT COfficer	500	Direct	Disposition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share.	N

Valero (VLO)

Date	Insider	Shares	Type	Transaction	Value

Apr 29, 2011	CHOATE JERRY DDirector	4,000	Direct	Option Exercise at $12.26 per share.	49,040
Apr 28, 2011	NICKLES DONALD LDirector	2,686	Direct	Disposition (Non Open Market) at $28.01 per share.	75,234
Apr 28, 2011	NICKLES DONALD LDirector	5,714	Direct	Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share.	N/A
Apr 28, 2011	WATERS STEPHEN MDirector	2,199	Direct	Disposition (Non Open Market) at $28.01 per share.	61,593
Apr 28, 2011	WATERS STEPHEN MDirector	5,714	Direct	Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share.	N/A
Apr 28, 2011	WEISENBURGER RANDALL JDirector	5,714	Direct	Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share.	N/A
Apr 28, 2011	WILKINS RAYFORD JRDirector	517	Direct	Disposition (Non Open Market) at $28.01 per share.	14,481
Apr 28, 2011	WILKINS RAYFORD JRDirector	5,714	Direct	Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share.	N/A
Apr 28, 2011	PROFUSEK ROBERTDirector	2,686	Direct	Disposition (Non Open Market) at $28.01 per share.	75,234
Apr 28, 2011	PROFUSEK ROBERTDirector	5,714	Direct	Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share.	N/A
Apr 28, 2011	CHOATE JERRY DDirector	5,714	Direct	Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share.	N/A
Apr 28, 2011	PURCELL SUSAN KAUFMANDirector	7,633	Direct	Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share.	N/A
Apr 28, 2011	ESCOBEDO RUBEN MDirector	5,714	Direct	Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share.	N/A
Apr 28, 2011	CALGAARD RONALD KDirector	2,686	Direct	Disposition (Non Open Market) at $28.01 per share.	75,234
Apr 28, 2011	CALGAARD RONALD KDirector	5,714	Direct	Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share.	N/A
Apr 28, 2011	MARBUT BOBDirector	5,714	Direct	Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share.	N/A
Apr 11, 2011	EDWARDS S EUGENEOfficer	20,620	Direct	Disposition (Non Open Market) at $28.04 per share.	578,18

Western Refining (WNR)

Date	Insider	Shares	Type	Transaction	Value

Jun 8, 2011	FRANKLIN MOUNTAIN INVESTMENTS LIMITED PARTNERSHIPBeneficial Owner (10% or more)	42,500	Direct	Automatic Sale at $15.35 per share.	652,375
Jun 8, 2011	FOSTER PAUL LOfficer	42,500	Indirect	Automatic Sale at $15.35 per share.	652,375
Jun 8, 2011	FOSTER PAUL LOfficer	21,250	Direct	Automatic Sale at $15.35 per share.	326,187
Jun 7, 2011	FRANKLIN MOUNTAIN INVESTMENTS LIMITED PARTNERSHIPBeneficial Owner (10% or more)	42,500	Direct	Automatic Sale at $15.41 per share.	654,925
Jun 7, 2011	FOSTER PAUL LOfficer	42,500	Indirect	Automatic Sale at $15.41 per share.	654,925
Jun 7, 2011	FOSTER PAUL LOfficer	21,250	Direct	Automatic Sale at $15.41 per share.	327,462
May 27, 2011	FRANKLIN MOUNTAIN INVESTMENTS LIMITED PARTNERSHIPBeneficial Owner (10% or more)	42,500	Direct	Automatic Sale at $17.23 per share.	732,275
May 27, 2011	STEVENS JEFF AOfficer	500,000	Direct	Disposition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share.	N/A
May 27, 2011	FOSTER PAUL LOfficer	42,500	Indirect	Automatic Sale at $17.23 per share.	732,275
May 27, 2011	FOSTER PAUL LOfficer	21,250	Direct	Automatic Sale at $17.23 per share.	366,137
May 26, 2011	FRANKLIN MOUNTAIN INVESTMENTS LIMITED PARTNERSHIPBeneficial Owner (10% or more)	42,500	Direct	Automatic Sale at $16.85 per share.	716,125
May 26, 2011	FOSTER PAUL LOfficer	42,500	Indirect	Automatic Sale at $16.85 per share.	716,125
May 26, 2011	FOSTER PAUL LOfficer	21,250	Direct	Automatic Sale at $16.85 per share.	358,062
May 13, 2011	FRANKLIN MOUNTAIN INVESTMENTS LIMITED PARTNERSHIPBeneficial Owner (10% or more)	42,500	Direct	Automatic Sale at $15.99 per share.	679,575
May 13, 2011	FOSTER PAUL LOfficer	42,500	Indirect	Automatic Sale at $15.99 per share.	679,575
May 13, 2011	FOSTER PAUL LOfficer	21,250	Direct	Automatic Sale at $15.99 per share.	339,787
May 12, 2011	FRANKLIN MOUNTAIN INVESTMENTS LIMITED PARTNERSHIPBeneficial Owner (10% or more)	42,500	Direct	Automatic Sale at $15.96 per share.	678,300
May 12, 2011	FOSTER PAUL LOfficer	42,500	Indirect	Automatic Sale at $15.96 per share.	678,300
May 12, 2011	FOSTER PAUL LOfficer	21,250	Direct	Automatic Sale at $15.96 per share.	339,150
May 11, 2011	BEYERSDORFER JEFFREY S.Officer	11,250	Direct	Sale at $17.15 per share.	192,937
Apr 28, 2011	FOSTER PAUL LOfficer	21,250	Direct	Automatic Sale at $16.87 per share.	358,487
Apr 28, 2011	FOSTER PAUL LOfficer	42,500	Indirect	Automatic Sale at $16.87 per share.	716,975
Apr 28, 2011	FRANKLIN MOUNTAIN INVESTMENTS LIMITED PARTNERSHIPBeneficial Owner (10% or more)	42,500	Direct	Automatic Sale at $16.87 per share.	716,975
Apr 27, 2011	FOSTER PAUL LOfficer	21,250	Direct	Automatic Sale at $17 - $17.32 per share.	365,000²
Apr 27, 2011	FOSTER PAUL LOfficer	42,500	Indirect	Automatic Sale at $17 - $17.32 per share.	729,000²
Apr 27, 2011	FRANKLIN MOUNTAIN INVESTMENTS LIMITED PARTNERSHIPBeneficial Owner (10% or more)	42,500	Direct	Automatic Sale at $17 - $17.32 per share.	729,000²
Apr 13, 2011	FRANKLIN MOUNTAIN INVESTMENTS LIMITED PARTNERSHIPBeneficial Owner (10% or more)	42,500	Direct	Automatic Sale at $17.71 per share.	752,675
Apr 13, 2011	FOSTER PAUL LOfficer	42,500	Indirect	Automatic Sale at $17.71 per share.	752,675
Apr 13, 2011	FOSTER PAUL LOfficer	21,250	Direct	Automatic Sale at $17.71 per share.	376,337
Apr 12, 2011	FRANKLIN MOUNTAIN INVESTMENTS LIMITED PARTNERSHIPBeneficial Owner (10% or more)	42,500	Direct	Automatic Sale at $17.20 per share.	731,000
Apr 12, 2011	FOSTER PAUL LOfficer	42,500	Indirect	Automatic Sale at $17.20 per share.	731,000
Apr 12, 2011	FOSTER PAUL LOfficer	21,250	Direct	Automatic Sale at $17.20 per share.	365,500

Disclosure: I am long CLMT.