A Deep Dive Into Antares Pharma's Buyout Thesis [View article]
Congratulations Yasar to your first-ever SA article. It was brilliant!
No doubt Yasar you know that Antares' three top executives hired in the last year all have connections to Pfizer. Irrespective, I like a good article but yours was exceptional. Congratulations.
First, an acknowledgement to L-daug for 'catching' the two Antares patent filings this morning. And interestingly, I came to the same conclusion that L-daug did as I was reading the patent entitled "LIQUID-TRANSFER ADAPTER BEVELED SPIKE" -- Yes, I read the entire patent and immediately concluded: this is for Teva!!! Reason being that Teva manufactures its product in vials so safe transfer into an injector is essential.
But there's more, the second patent addresses a key safety issue to protect the user from accidentally self-firing. This is particular critical for handling Teva's biosimilars that represent a bio-hazard and can be quite painful (such as Copaxone) if it gets 'on' the skin.
But there's even more: Antares has already developed a two-chamber injector system and Teva recently took advanced steps with Laquinimod and Methotrexate. Antares has its own history with Methotrexate (Otrexup), but here we're seeing the diversity of the Antares proprietary injector line.
This patent news came out prior to today's article otherwise I would have highlighted it. Congratulations to Antares investors!
Herein is the question: Was the conclusion of Z944 multi-dose phase I study an SEC material event? Maybe while Jason Cole (who has sold shares in the past) is congratulating himself for an extra 6 months severance can examine the legal ramifications for not reporting on Z944's multi-dose study. Does the company have an obligation to shareholders on a material event?
Why is Zalicus hiding this from investors? One view is because Zalicus has this whopping deal in the works... but another view is because Zalicus doesn't want to report bad results on the heels of Synavive's failure.
I maintain: Let Zalicus answer and we'll all be grateful.
Zalicus recently filed that its 2 top executives have been granted a 6 month extension to a now 1 and 1/2 year separation package. Why is that? Why now? It's odd. Meanwhile, Zalicus' #1 analyst ZACKS Jason Napodano reports that he does not think that the firm will be sold. But then factor into all of this, the COMPLETE RECALCITRANT SILENCE of Zalicus management to report on the phase I multi-dose clinical trial outcome of Z944.
Now one is asking Zalicus management to "give away the store" or to disclose "top secret plans" for Z944... however, the firm's silence on the results could just as easily be summarized in a very straight-forward press release that "In multi-dose studies, Z944 was found to be..."
Instead, Zalicus has stoned-walled investors. DEAD SILENCE on clinical results. This is unacceptable for investors who've stood by the firm even through Synavive's failure. I am calling upon Zalicus to issue a press release on Z944 as a responsible obligation to shareholders who have stood by the firm.
Why invest in Zalicus in 2013 if investors are left in limbo to wonder about Z944? Zalicus owes its investors an answer. Plain and simple.
It could be argued: that's why the trial was stopped in November 2012, or that the target improvement met the end-point, but just remember this is a trial that went from phase 1 to phase 3 and the Chinese government requires a certain number of subjects to be tested in their own country for future approval, and in my own view--I think the time-frame for the study is very reasonable.
Carrix, your opinion understood. However, Is there value in thinking that as you call it "overly conservative" that the odds favor Thermodox? Hmmm, something to ponder.
Badges, interesting observations. As has been my read on these things, this is why I think the clinical design targets those patients with larger tumors to avoid a potential placebo effect and instead put the money (so to speak) on the sickest subjects to test the Thermodox hypothesis. I hope we eventually learn that the tumors in the subjects averaged better than 5 to 7 cm because RFA will be shown how ineffective it is in larger size tumors, but then again, Thermodox will be put on the spot to prove that it is effective...Just my thoughts...
Now you've got me laughing Alex. You poke me for not doing 1/12 equations, but then want me to concede that 350/351 is 'even Steven'... ha! (smile) ... chuckles...
That's the point! "Overly conservative" ... which is a strong counter-balance to investing in the highly risky biotech sector. I'd far rather come in under what Celsion reports than fool myself with inflated optimism.
1) Had I used 50% versus 45.4% at 1 yr, the RFAT results would even be better.
2) Had I used 1/12 fraction, the RFAT results would even be better.
I noted this in my article.
That I arrived at 33.32% was a pleasant surprise and if #1 and #2 were further refined, I can reasonably suggest the results would have been better than 34%.
One question has been, Why was the study completed when it did? I think we can say we may have that answer.
Alex, I noted that I did not use 1/12's, and btw, I did run 1/12's as a side bar to see the difference. The change was minimal and I debated where to cut off between years, but in any case, a more precise 1/12 analysis does favor RFAT, therefore there is little to worry about. You can play with the numbers too and I suggest you do.
Antares Rallies Quickly And Confidently On Newest Developments [View article]
Intriguing coverage Brian. I'd like to clarify a bit...
The injectable version of methotrexate offers a higher pay-load (versus 15 mg oral) and avoids some of those intestinal nasty side effects, but the company's keeping the U.S. market for itself because the number of rheumatologists is a manageable number and they have their manufacturing already lined up in Canada (Uman) so the value to Antares is significant. I could see them partnering outside the U.S. though.
Share price is always an interesting question, but I agree with other longs who think the present market price is not properly reflecting the progress the company has made. Actually R&D spend is one of the best I've seen among pharmas and since CEO Wotton has been building out his administrative infrastructure with top notch people coming from Teva and Pfizer, I'm quite okay with that.
A Deep Dive Into Antares Pharma's Buyout Thesis [View article]
No doubt Yasar you know that Antares' three top executives hired in the last year all have connections to Pfizer. Irrespective, I like a good article but yours was exceptional. Congratulations.
Savvy Investors Discover Antares' Growing Revenue Stream [View article]
First, an acknowledgement to L-daug for 'catching' the two Antares patent filings this morning. And interestingly, I came to the same conclusion that L-daug did as I was reading the patent entitled "LIQUID-TRANSFER ADAPTER BEVELED SPIKE" -- Yes, I read the entire patent and immediately concluded: this is for Teva!!! Reason being that Teva manufactures its product in vials so safe transfer into an injector is essential.
But there's more, the second patent addresses a key safety issue to protect the user from accidentally self-firing. This is particular critical for handling Teva's biosimilars that represent a bio-hazard and can be quite painful (such as Copaxone) if it gets 'on' the skin.
But there's even more: Antares has already developed a two-chamber injector system and Teva recently took advanced steps with Laquinimod and Methotrexate. Antares has its own history with Methotrexate (Otrexup), but here we're seeing the diversity of the Antares proprietary injector line.
This patent news came out prior to today's article otherwise I would have highlighted it. Congratulations to Antares investors!
The Future Of Zalicus In 2013 [View article]
Herein is the question: Was the conclusion of Z944 multi-dose phase I study an SEC material event? Maybe while Jason Cole (who has sold shares in the past) is congratulating himself for an extra 6 months severance can examine the legal ramifications for not reporting on Z944's multi-dose study. Does the company have an obligation to shareholders on a material event?
Why is Zalicus hiding this from investors? One view is because Zalicus has this whopping deal in the works... but another view is because Zalicus doesn't want to report bad results on the heels of Synavive's failure.
I maintain: Let Zalicus answer and we'll all be grateful.
Happy investing.
The Future Of Zalicus In 2013 [View article]
Now one is asking Zalicus management to "give away the store" or to disclose "top secret plans" for Z944... however, the firm's silence on the results could just as easily be summarized in a very straight-forward press release that "In multi-dose studies, Z944 was found to be..."
Instead, Zalicus has stoned-walled investors. DEAD SILENCE on clinical results. This is unacceptable for investors who've stood by the firm even through Synavive's failure. I am calling upon Zalicus to issue a press release on Z944 as a responsible obligation to shareholders who have stood by the firm.
Why invest in Zalicus in 2013 if investors are left in limbo to wonder about Z944? Zalicus owes its investors an answer. Plain and simple.
Recalculating Celsion's Upcoming Results [View article]
Have a great Tuesday!
Recalculating Celsion's Upcoming Results [View article]
Have a great week.
Recalculating Celsion's Upcoming Results [View article]
Recalculating Celsion's Upcoming Results [View article]
Happy days are here again!
Recalculating Celsion's Upcoming Results [View article]
Recalculating Celsion's Upcoming Results [View article]
That's the point! "Overly conservative" ... which is a strong counter-balance to investing in the highly risky biotech sector. I'd far rather come in under what Celsion reports than fool myself with inflated optimism.
Have a super day!
Recalculating Celsion's Upcoming Results [View article]
1) Had I used 50% versus 45.4% at 1 yr, the RFAT results would even be better.
2) Had I used 1/12 fraction, the RFAT results would even be better.
I noted this in my article.
That I arrived at 33.32% was a pleasant surprise and if #1 and #2 were further refined, I can reasonably suggest the results would have been better than 34%.
One question has been, Why was the study completed when it did? I think we can say we may have that answer.
Have a nice day.
Recalculating Celsion's Upcoming Results [View article]
Recalculating Celsion's Upcoming Results [View article]
Antares Rallies Quickly And Confidently On Newest Developments [View article]
The injectable version of methotrexate offers a higher pay-load (versus 15 mg oral) and avoids some of those intestinal nasty side effects, but the company's keeping the U.S. market for itself because the number of rheumatologists is a manageable number and they have their manufacturing already lined up in Canada (Uman) so the value to Antares is significant. I could see them partnering outside the U.S. though.
Share price is always an interesting question, but I agree with other longs who think the present market price is not properly reflecting the progress the company has made. Actually R&D spend is one of the best I've seen among pharmas and since CEO Wotton has been building out his administrative infrastructure with top notch people coming from Teva and Pfizer, I'm quite okay with that.
Thanks for writing Brian.
Why Is Antares Rising So Quickly? [View article]