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James Stocklasar Thomas Jr.

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  • Acadia's Bubbling To Move Higher [View article]
    Thanks for sharing that moving story MSBob. As I've been learning, it looks like Pimavanserin is going to 'hit' multiple targets for the good of people with terrible diseases. Looks to me like Acadia was being quite savvy in going with the 40 mg dose. My confidence level is much higher knowing that this trial has been conducted in North America. I suspect the ongoing safety trial(s) hint to the drug's efficacy. Let's hope it helps people.

    Have a nice day.
    Oct 19 08:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Acadia's Bubbling To Move Higher [View article]
    Biomaster,

    Some things are obvious. (1) Acadia went with a 40 mg dose, not accident. It is based on both positive and negative data. IMO, it is probably more than what is needed (20 - 40 mg range), but it will verify the drug's efficacy. (2) Those ongoing safety trials are privvy to Acadia -- they know what they need to know to select a dosing level that will return positive results and do it safely. That's why the other trial was stopped. Acadia knows what it needs to do to move Pimavanserin forward. (3) Board members may suggest/hint to internal events, but I lean more towards the science. A 40 mg dose of Pimavanserin should put the company over the top. I suspect Acadia is already in partnership discussions and magnitude will probably be much larger than the market action is indicating.

    Have a nice day.
    Oct 19 12:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Acadia May Be This Year's Holiday Prize [View article]
    The question is, Is Acadia a good value at $2.4?/share or not? Given that the stock popped over $3 on no news, one might figure a drug with a tri-fold/multi-fold potential should send the share price significantly higher. Your post only confirms what my own opinion is. All that is presently happening are day-traders flipping positions, but in time the opportunity to buy here will be a distant memory.

    Have a nice day.
    Oct 18 01:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Acadia May Be This Year's Holiday Prize [View article]
    I can certainly speak for myself. I prefer Acadia. That's my choice. It goes beyond the daily volatility as witnessed by today. I simply am of the opinion that is favorable to Pimavanserin. Of course, anyone is entitled to their own opinion. I've made mine clear and am content to state it. I'm also the same one who represented reasons for why I think Pimavanserin will succeed. Others may differ, but at the current price, I think this is an excellent entry point. Investors can draw their own conclusion.
    Oct 18 01:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Acadia May Be This Year's Holiday Prize [View article]
    My bullishness is derived from the potential of Pimavanserin being a triple-play: Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, and schizophrenia. There's obviously a lot of day-trading around this stock and subsequently high volatility. Something I've observed is that the long-term safety trials are still in motion suggesting to me that 'someone' must be benefiting. With a potential triple application that's a sizeable market and this round upon success could get them special track privileges with the FDA. How high it will run is anyone's guess, but a greater than 50% return seems likely... however that's the fun of biotech investing.

    Have a nice day.
    Oct 17 09:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Sirius Could Grow Its Bottom Line [View article]
    With the greatest respect CN, accounting issues aren't a reason for addressing why you can't improve the retention rate. Of course you know that. Likewise, we live in a world of flux no different from your favorite TV show that gets cancelled, but if the product is attractive than management should design the buy-in as something people need...

    I once again go back to my observation that a great people are penny stretched so buying into Sirius the day you buy the car gains you long-time subscriber irrespective of how you account for it. Wealthy executives earning $10M/yr don't get it. In time, the new executives will, Get it.
    Oct 15 05:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Sirius Could Grow Its Bottom Line [View article]
    Raltnjz,

    Of course someone like Crunching Numbers or SF Spencer have an opinion. For example, through my reading of various SA authors I came to the conclusion that Liberty Media would only act in a manner that would benefit its investment. Given Sirius' current CEO's salary, I dare say that fellow is on his way out the door and so is his management team. The game is profitability and there are solid reasons for thinking Sirius could be a much bigger player if the executive team were run by people who are driven by success.

    I'll put my view out there: I like the Liberty takeover and I think Sirius investors are going to make a heap of money when Liberty controls the board.
    Oct 15 05:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Buy Housing Stocks Like DR Horton [View article]
    It's sorta' fun to step outside the normal box of my biotech coverage as I normally cover low-priced/high-risk biotechs. If anyone is looking for an interesting play (assuming all risk, etc), then take a gander at Acadia (ACAD). It's trading at its low in a range and has been very volatile/upside of late because it has a big catalyst coming in November. Meanwhile, I like the housing sector from a longer-term perspective.

    Happy trading.
    Oct 15 02:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Sirius Could Grow Its Bottom Line [View article]
    It's been great to read so much feed-back and perspectives on how Sirius might improve its bottom line. What all the 'Comments' imply is that there is room for Sirius to grow. Think for example of satisfied Sirius customers returning to the dealership to purchase another car--Wouldn't they want the lifetime package? Or a package customized to how long they plan to hold onto the car? If 'average Joe' is taking out a car loan, I still think it would be easier were the Sirius offer rolled into his car loan. Obviously, not everyone may want that, but I do think it would improve bottom line sales if even by 5% retention.

    BTW, I normally cover low-priced/high-risk biotechs. If anyone is looking for an interesting play (assuming all risk, etc), then take a gander at Acadia (ACAD). It's trading at its low in a range and has been very volatile/upside of late because it has a big catalyst coming in November.

    Have a nice day.
    Oct 15 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bare Bones Valuation On Zalicus: Over 40% Upside Potential [View article]
    Mr. Napodano,

    It goes without saying but your craftsmanship of analyzing the stock value is of great value. As I have been a long admirer of yours and still am, I am looking at Zalicus more from the trading perspective versus valuation perspective. These markets have a way of ignoring what the analysts say and often surprise and perplex all of us. Though my ion channel bullishness remains as a cherished prize, one must be savvy about entry and exit points into a stock. Seeing the share price collapse I wouldn't be surprised were it to go lower, but then of course the very opposite may happen... so what to do? what to do?

    For now, my perspective is to wait it out as I think the risk of going lower is greater than going higher. I think a test point for me will be seeing what comes of Z944. I want to see if Zalicus advances it because that for now is unknown. That's an unknown I want to see. Because after all, if it fails, then Zalicus' internal pipeline becomes a one trick Z160 pony. Yes, this is a time of great mystery. Plus, the overall market has been giving small biotechs a right-beating. But thank you again for your most informative article.

    Just one question though: Did Zalicus management ask you to write your article or provide updated coverage? I've often wondered how these things work. In other words, what's the catalyst that inspires an analyst to cover/write about a stock. Thanks.
    Oct 10 05:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bare Bones Valuation On Zalicus: Over 40% Upside Potential [View article]
    Mr Napodano,

    As always, an interesting read. Thing is, $0.76 bare bones isn't what I view as an attractive buy knowing Z944 is in phase 1 limbo and Z160 is only in phase 2A and won't report until later in 2013. Given the company's historic cash-burn per quarter, their coffers are going to show another loss in Q3 2012 and each quarter going forward. Where's the new cash going to come from? Exalgo and Synavive? Neither will be enough. We both know that.

    While I certainly appreciate your bare bones analysis, as an investor I find it less than reassuring seeing how the company refuses to come out with even a "bone" for current investors stuck in Zalicus for a substantial loss.

    I guess what I'm saying is this. There's a time to buy, there's a time to sell, and there's a time to stay away. I view Zalicus as an EXTREME RISK at this point and wouldn't recommend it until management steps up to the plate and provides its investors with good news. To read: "That's 46% higher than today. We see meaningful upside on any piece of good news, and we believe the shares could easily be back above $1.00 per share in 2013 in anticipation of data on both Z160 and Z944" that amounts to representing hope in a stock environment when I see the next stop for Zalicus' share price in the range of $0.40 to even $0.30.

    Meaning, I'd rather buy Zalicus for $0.35 and then should I track your scenario, I'll profit over 100%. Right now, buying in the $0.50's seems like an option I ain't touchin'...

    Nevertheless, interesting read at a most curious moment.
    Oct 10 02:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Reasoned Case For Pimavanserin's Success [View article]
    Anionx, remember... I only calculated 10% of schizophrenic patients, so maybe that in part explains the magnitude. Once I see potential sales are over a billion... it's gravy (I say that with a smile).

    Have a nice day.
    Sep 24 07:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Reasoned Case For Pimavanserin's Success [View article]
    That's an excellent point Gru and one I forgot to mention, but now you have. Excellent post. I sense momentum is building.

    Have a nice day.
    Sep 24 06:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Reasoned Case For Pimavanserin's Success [View article]
    Happy, your comments are fascinating and I will track them down. That's very interesting about patients who are still enrolled and what you say about the CEO of Biovail. I'll have to explore that.

    I think the market is behind the curve on ACAD and I'll leave my comments there. People get upset when I predict triple percent gains. Thanks for the input.

    Have a nice day.
    Sep 24 04:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Under Construction Rehash: Buy Acadia And Astex [View article]
    Cinci, this news came as a surprise and was a disappointment.
    Sep 21 04:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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