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James Yardley  

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  • Activision-Blizzard: Is The King Digital Acquisition All It's Cracked Up To Be? [View article]
    Agree with all the above. Also, management doesn't have anything to lose from the deal. There not losing their jobs. King is going to be kept as a separate entity. The CEO, COO and CCO have all been given long-term contracts.
    Nov 4, 2015. 03:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Activision Blizzard's Purchase Of King Digital: Take The Money And Run [View article]
    You've extracted profit not revenues. King actually generates gross revenues of about $500mn per quarter. And ignore the profits it's the free cash flow which matters. King is on a ridiculous free cash flow yield when you strip out the $1bn it has in cash. People also don't give King any credit for how it has diversified away from Candy Crush since IPO. And actually the franchise has proved very durable. Yes King has issues but they are more than priced into its crazy valuation. Activision has a great deal. Very disappointed with the $18. I am long $King
    Nov 3, 2015. 07:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Activision-Blizzard: Is The King Digital Acquisition All It's Cracked Up To Be? [View article]
    As a $KING shareholder I'm very annoyed with this deal. King is massively profitable trading at a ridiculous FCF yield with a $1bn in cash on the balance sheet. Downside was always limited. Yes it has issues but since IPO it has done a good job to diversify away from candy crush. The trouble is know one can take a long term view and a few quarters of declining sales and a business model people don't instinctively like has destroyed sentiment. Very disappointed with the $18 price ATVI have got a great deal. This will pay for itself in next to no time.
    Nov 3, 2015. 06:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hargreaves Services: A Value Investor In Disguise [View article]
    Great stuff
    Apr 30, 2015. 07:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ophir Energy Has A Potential 67% Upside [View article]
    Thanks for the article. I recently started a position in Ophir a few weeks ago so I'm glad I'm not the only one who was interested. This is not a sector I have any expertise in but with the Pavilion deal I thought this stock was too cheap to ignore.

    I'd be interested to know of everyone's thoughts on the possible Salamander deal. The market seems to be taking it very negatively. I notice that Ophir's current CEO is the founder of Salamander, so he should know the business extremely well. At first glance it appears an excellent way to diversify the business and add the revenue streams Ophir currently lacks. Or is this a case of the ex-founder come to the rescue of his old business with little regard for shareholders? The market may also be worried about a bidding war for SMDR. But the timing looks to be good with sentiment on these stocks so depressed. Happy to own this for the long-term and wait for sentiment to reverse as it inevitably will.

    Disclosure: I am long LON:OPHR

    Also interested in peoples thoughts on Cairn (CNE) which I'm looking at.
    Oct 31, 2014. 07:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's iPhone 6 First Weekend Sales Record: What It Means For Investors [View article]
    Yes Apple doesn't recognise a sale until the phone is in the customers hands. iPhone launch numbers tell you more about supply than demand. When I went into the store to pick up my pre-order I overhead/saw them turning away at least 20 people in just a few minutes.
    Sep 22, 2014. 06:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • So Undervalued, They're Golden [View article]
    An excellent article with loads of information but I don't think you made your case.

    The Citi research on cash costs is of particular concern, implying that all gold miners are now burning cash and destroying value. They may be trading at below NAV but they should be if they are destroying value like this. The Citi research also makes me very worried about the what happens if the price of gold falls further. What are these companies worth if we see $900/oz, not an impossibility, last time we had such a big run up in gold price it was followed by a 30 year bear market.

    Production is at an all time high - which can only pressure prices further in the short term. As you say yields per ore have collapsed and exploration costs have soared exponentially. Miners are having to spend more and more to find less and less. This does not make for a long term sustainable business.

    It might imply much lower production in the long term but even that is not guaranteed to push prices up. As we know gold's price is not entirely determined by a normal commercial demand/supply balance.

    If anything I'm thinking the risk to reward for these companies is skewed to the negative. Is there an argument for going long gold and shorting miners given all the challenges they face? You could see bigger losses for miners with a gold price of $900 than upside with a price of $1500. Thoughts?.
    Sep 17, 2014. 07:08 PM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Watch: Disruptive, Profitable, And Yes, The Next Big Thing [View article]
    Apple is a luxury brand and doesn't cater for the 'average Joe'
    Sep 9, 2014. 07:57 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Watch: Disruptive, Profitable, And Yes, The Next Big Thing [View article]
    Agreed. The battery life is a worry and Apple conveniently didn't mention it during their presentation which doesn't bode well although otherwise it was very impressive.
    Sep 9, 2014. 07:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesco's Price Drop Offers Excellent Value [View article]
    This article is far too optimistic. I bought into Tesco after the big drop at the start of 2012. It looked incredibly cheap and I thought the improving UK economy would eventually filter through. The US operation was always going to have a positive impact on the stock one way or the other. Either it would it would improve or they would be forced to exit.

    Alas since then almost everything has gone wrong, international operations have done very poorly. Tesco has retreated from the US and Japan. The rest of Asia and Europe have also been very poor. They are being crushed from the low and high end in the UK. Margins are collapsing. They have no pricing power.

    I have no idea why the stock rose to 400p it had no business going there because nothing has gone right. I sold the majority of my holding last summer but I still hold a small position.

    Management needs to get its act together. Clarke seems to think he's running a technology company. Tablets and smartphones are a major distraction.

    Blinkbox is not going to save Tesco, it needs to remember it is primarily a grocer. The stores and brand are not right at the moment. Tesco is perceived as an impersonal giant. Shopping in a Tesco is not a pleasant experience and the prices seem increasingly expensive and the quality of the food is declining. The whole brand needs a radical overhaul.

    Contrast this to Waitrose. The store is beautifully designed. They pay particular attention to thinking about the customer experience and they use lighting very cleverly. It is a totally different experience and they are taking huge share gains as a result.

    The same is true with Aldi and Lidl. They give customers what they want and there quality has increased dramatically in recent years whilst keeping costs low.

    Another point. The majors have also been losing share to the pound stores. The pound stores are much more savvy with their marketing. For example they make products very slightly smaller to keep prices down. There was an interesting documentary on this which was supposed to expose the fact that the pound stores aren't really as cheap as they make it out. It really showed how the supermarkets have been totally outplayed. Only now is Tesco fighting back

    I still think Tesco has a lot of potential if it can get its act together but it needs to wake up fast.

    Disclosure: I am long Tesco (LON:TSCO)
    May 10, 2014. 02:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Acquiring A Fad - Not Quality - And That Is Troubling [View article]
    Looking closer at this deal it seems to make more sense. It's interesting to note that Universal owns 14% of Beats. Having Iovine as a special advisor seems like a very good idea. In one stroke Apple buys a music streaming service and solidifies it's relationships in the industry. Apple is also after the algos Beats has been working on. Hopefully the mediocre overpriced headphones are more of a bonus and Apple may believe they can improve them.
    May 9, 2014. 09:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Acquiring A Fad - Not Quality - And That Is Troubling [View article]
    It is gutsy but it does make you feel a bit uncomfortable. This acquisition is all about the brand but it's dangerous to link yourself to something which is considered mediocre and overpriced by many. For now I'll trust Apple's management but I'll be watching this carefully.

    I am long AAPL
    May 9, 2014. 02:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple may make largest acquisition with $3.2B Beats deal [View news story]
    You guys are missing the point. It has nothing to do with the product and everything to do with the brand. $3.2bn is really nothing to Apple. I don't see a lot of downside to this although the press will spin it as Apple not innovating.
    May 8, 2014. 07:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Stocks With Large Buyback Programs - They May Bite Back [View article]
    It's totally wrong to write off all stocks with large buybacks. If management feels their stock is undervalued then they absolutely should buyback their stock. If they are correct and the share price subsequently rises this will create value for existing shareholders. It is inaccurate to imply that buybacks only benefit sellers and CEOs. And yes a buyback does 'return capital to existing shareholders', that is exactly what it does.

    You fail to mention the major advantage of buybacks - they are much more tax efficient than dividend payments. Having your dividends paid out and then re-investing them is a lot less tax efficient than if the company had just bought back its stock for you.

    This isn't to say that some CEO's don't undertake terrible buybacks when their share prices are overvalued. I wish CEOs would make more of an assessment of whether their stock is actually undervalued before initiating a buyback. There are many buybacks which shouldn't happen but don't tarnish them all with the same brush. Your article is inaccurate, misleading and totally fails to make a balanced assessment.
    Mar 27, 2014. 07:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha And David Einhorn: The Real Story [View article]
    Well done SA
    Mar 24, 2014. 06:29 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment