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James Yardley

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  • Avoid Stocks With Large Buyback Programs - They May Bite Back [View article]
    It's totally wrong to write off all stocks with large buybacks. If management feels their stock is undervalued then they absolutely should buyback their stock. If they are correct and the share price subsequently rises this will create value for existing shareholders. It is inaccurate to imply that buybacks only benefit sellers and CEOs. And yes a buyback does 'return capital to existing shareholders', that is exactly what it does.

    You fail to mention the major advantage of buybacks - they are much more tax efficient than dividend payments. Having your dividends paid out and then re-investing them is a lot less tax efficient than if the company had just bought back its stock for you.

    This isn't to say that some CEO's don't undertake terrible buybacks when their share prices are overvalued. I wish CEOs would make more of an assessment of whether their stock is actually undervalued before initiating a buyback. There are many buybacks which shouldn't happen but don't tarnish them all with the same brush. Your article is inaccurate, misleading and totally fails to make a balanced assessment.
    Mar 27 07:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha And David Einhorn: The Real Story [View article]
    Well done SA
    Mar 24 06:29 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple About To Revolutionize The Mobile Payments Industry? Part 2 [View article]
    Apple building mobile-payments business
    Jan 26 04:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Shale Oil Boosters Are Charlatans In Disguise [View article]
    Thank you for an interesting article you make some good points. However I think you underestimate the power of technology. Your analysis doesn't consider that we are now more energy efficient (and getting more efficient). A car can run a lot further today on the same petrol versus 50 years ago. Even something as simple as insulating our homes better can save huge amounts of energy.

    And the EROEI of renewable technologies such as solar is getting stronger by the day. There are also other options for cheaper energy such as the nuclear route. Morgans conclusion is far too pessimistic.
    Jan 26 08:05 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How I Can Explain 96% Of Your Portfolio's Returns [View article]
    Thank you very much for a fantastic article
    Dec 31 03:46 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 8 Reasons Cirrus Logic Has 50% Upside [View article]
    Interesting idea I hadn't even considered. It would be the largest acquisition Apple has ever made but its not inconceivable especially when you consider all the cash Cirrus has.

    I think its unlikely but you might ask why is Apple not making this sort of acquisition? It would make a lot more sense than just leaving that cash on the balance sheet.

    I disagree with Redrut I think reward outweighs the risk given how cheap the stock and its cash pile. Not losing the iPad mini was significant.

    I went with Ashraf on this one and bought the stock recently. I think both Cirrus and Apple will have a good Christmas quarter.

    I am long AAPL and CRUS
    Dec 19 10:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bad Bank Of The Day, RBS Edition [View article]
    Wow these allegations are just unbelievable. I felt sick reading this. Well done for putting everything together into a concise article. Is this a few isolated incidents or are there hundreds or thousands of cases? My guess is this is just the tip of the iceberg and we will see many more cases in the days to come.

    I was amazed to see the stock closed up today. The initial financial impact may be negligible but if these allegations are even slightly true the political fallout could be devastating.
    Nov 25 09:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Will Miss iPhone's Consensus Sales Of 55 Million [View article]
    Apple may or may not lose market share versus the competition (Xiamoi etc) but the point is Apple is actually selling the new iPhones for the whole quarter in China this year where as last year it was not. A major positive.

    The 5C was priced perfectly for launch. Apple didn't want developed market customers to abandon the 5S for the 5C.

    I expect Apple to drop the price of the 5C and 4S in emerging markets when it announces the China mobile deal (They have shown they are willing to do with other phones in India for example).

    Regardless having a new product in the form of the 5C must be a positive versus the older products Apple was selling the previous year.

    Discolsure: I am long $APPL
    Nov 15 08:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Will Miss iPhone's Consensus Sales Of 55 Million [View article]
    This article is full of holes. You have twisted facts to meet your own conclusions. For example the fact Apple is now selling the iPhone in China for the whole of Q1 is a major positive not a negative.

    The YoY comparison should be much easier for Apple this year as I showed in my article.

    1) Apple is selling its latest iPhones in China for the entire quarter.
    2) It is rolling out its latest phones to new countries faster than the previous year.
    3) The 5S is an S cycle phone which should mean it's easier to build and supply.
    4) Demand should be stronger for the 5S versus the 5, as evidenced by Apples record launch weekend and recent quarterly sales (up 25.6% YoY) Recent data has also backed this up
    5) Apple does not have the negative publicity with its maps application which it suffered from last year.
    6) The 5C is a new product Apple didn't have last year
    7) The iphone 4 was heavily supply constrained last year and severely limited iphone sale (This shouldn't be the case with the 4S this year). This a fact that most people have forgotten.
    8) DOCOMO deal

    And yet consensus is for just 5% Revenue growth. I'm expecting Apple to sell just under 60 million iPhones.

    Also you calculate that Apple will sell 57 million phones but then choose to ignore your own calculation. This article is worthless.
    Nov 15 07:12 AM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Samsung's Worst Nightmare [View article]
    The article already exists
    Nov 14 08:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barratt Developments: The Best Way To Play The U.K. Housing Recovery [View article]
    Thanks Redrut great points

    Barratt delivered its interim statement today.
    Private forward sales were up 47% to £1,127.4m for the first 19 weeks of the year. An even stronger number than the 44% increase we saw in September.

    However Barratt stuck stubbornly to its completion guidance. (It said there was a little bit of upside potential). As I understood it they said they want to push some completions into FY 15. (I don't understand why they would want to do this). They also said 4,339 or 96% of the forward order book is due for completion in FY14. I wish I'd had the chance to ask a question about this.

    Barratt gave good guidance on costs. It said it could probably hold costs flat for the current year, despite some recent worries. This should be good news for gross margins.

    The stock has sold off quite heavily today. This is mainly down to the BoE's revision of its unemployment forecasts as well as the completion guidance

    I think the market is too worried about interest rates. This revision is down to a stronger than expected UK economy, something which should after all be a major positive for the housing market. The report was actually quite dovish on inflation. I reiterate that I would be very surprised if we saw any interest rate rises before the next election in May 2015. This is a great chance to buy Barratt at a cheap price.
    Nov 13 01:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market Has Learned From The iPad [View article]
    Yes but the marketing director in the video has a vested interest in making Sapphire appear as viable as possible. The author was right to dig deeper and give more weight to the independent analyst.
    Nov 12 09:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Going To Be An iPad Christmas [View article]
    Thanks Jason

    No my analysis does not currently include a China mobile deal. I should have mentioned this in the article. Given all the reasons I gave above I don't think 14% YoY revenue growth for iPhones is unreasonable, even without a deal.

    And a deal is looking increasingly likely. It makes perfect sense for both companies.

    If accurate it's interesting the focus the marketing places on the 'biggest discounts'. I predicted in an earlier article that Apple would drop prices and aggressively go after share when the China Mobile deal was announced.
    This might be a reason for Apples low ASP guidance.

    Full disclosure: I am long Apple AAPL and China Mobile CHL
    Nov 1 09:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Going To Be An iPad Christmas [View article]
    Thanks HE. You're quite right I have omitted 3 weeks of sales for the iPad 4, a bad error on my part. That's probably another 500k-750k sales. Thanks for the correction.
    Oct 31 07:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Going To Be An iPad Christmas [View article]
    Thanks Michael. I look forward to reading your next article.
    Oct 31 06:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment