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James Yardley

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  • So Undervalued, They're Golden [View article]
    An excellent article with loads of information but I don't think you made your case.

    The Citi research on cash costs is of particular concern, implying that all gold miners are now burning cash and destroying value. They may be trading at below NAV but they should be if they are destroying value like this. The Citi research also makes me very worried about the what happens if the price of gold falls further. What are these companies worth if we see $900/oz, not an impossibility, last time we had such a big run up in gold price it was followed by a 30 year bear market.

    Production is at an all time high - which can only pressure prices further in the short term. As you say yields per ore have collapsed and exploration costs have soared exponentially. Miners are having to spend more and more to find less and less. This does not make for a long term sustainable business.

    It might imply much lower production in the long term but even that is not guaranteed to push prices up. As we know gold's price is not entirely determined by a normal commercial demand/supply balance.

    If anything I'm thinking the risk to reward for these companies is skewed to the negative. Is there an argument for going long gold and shorting miners given all the challenges they face? You could see bigger losses for miners with a gold price of $900 than upside with a price of $1500. Thoughts?.
    Sep 17, 2014. 07:08 PM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Will Miss iPhone's Consensus Sales Of 55 Million [View article]
    This article is full of holes. You have twisted facts to meet your own conclusions. For example the fact Apple is now selling the iPhone in China for the whole of Q1 is a major positive not a negative.

    The YoY comparison should be much easier for Apple this year as I showed in my article.

    1) Apple is selling its latest iPhones in China for the entire quarter.
    2) It is rolling out its latest phones to new countries faster than the previous year.
    3) The 5S is an S cycle phone which should mean it's easier to build and supply.
    4) Demand should be stronger for the 5S versus the 5, as evidenced by Apples record launch weekend and recent quarterly sales (up 25.6% YoY) Recent data has also backed this up
    5) Apple does not have the negative publicity with its maps application which it suffered from last year.
    6) The 5C is a new product Apple didn't have last year
    7) The iphone 4 was heavily supply constrained last year and severely limited iphone sale (This shouldn't be the case with the 4S this year). This a fact that most people have forgotten.
    8) DOCOMO deal

    And yet consensus is for just 5% Revenue growth. I'm expecting Apple to sell just under 60 million iPhones.

    Also you calculate that Apple will sell 57 million phones but then choose to ignore your own calculation. This article is worthless.
    Nov 15, 2013. 07:12 AM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: This Is Just Plain Ugly [View article]
    It doesn't matter how great the OS is because there are no apps and no ecosystem.

    This will only get worse. Blackberry's decision to put itself up for sale publicly has had a terrible impact on sales.

    No one is going to buy a Blackberry with such uncertainty hanging over the company. Sales declines will only accelerate after this announcement. They need saving NOW!
    Sep 22, 2013. 11:25 AM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Dirty Little Secret [View article]
    Your arguments seem very emotional and I think your criticism of Cook is unfair. In fact Cook has been much more shareholder friendly than Jobs. Apples share price collapsed multiple times under Jobs. In 2000, 2006 and 2008. It is the nature of the stock it trades with its product cycles.

    You're also forgetting the fact that prior to Jobs stepping down Cook had already run the company for three extended periods of significant length before he took over. He was running the company for much of the period people hark back too.

    There is no reason to think Apple will be kicked out of China. Yes the government will try to promote its own home grown competitors but Apple has responded well to government criticism. At below $300 almost 60% of Apples market cap would be in cash!

    The stock is incredibly cheap has huge secular tailwinds and the strongest brand in the world.

    A number of catalysts this year could drive the stock much higher.

    1) Buy back/ dividend
    2) China mobile deal
    3) cheaper iPhone
    4) iWatch
    5) iTV

    I don't think Cook is arrogant simply because he doesn't pander to every Wall Street whim (and he is definitely less arrogant than Jobs). I'd much rather they were focusing on products.

    Yes this stock is a risk. It's a technology stock which derives most of its revenue from a couple of products. But the risk reward is excellent and I'm backing Apple to execute.

    Disclosure: I am long Apple (AAPL)
    Apr 19, 2013. 08:40 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's New iPads Are Out And They Are Gorgeous: Sell The News [View article]
    The difference with this product launch is that we have earnings right after. That's what will impact the stock. This will be a huge earnings call, not for the results but for the Q1 guidance.

    Please be careful shorting those naked calls Michael. I would reconsider your strategy.

    Full disclosure: I am long $AAPL
    Oct 23, 2013. 10:55 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Pessimists Missing Company's Improving Prospects [View article]
    Apple's strategy has been perfect. They've sold a colossal number of phones at high prices. They haven't damaged the premium brand. The 5C hasn't cannibalized the 5S (initial estimates 3.7 -1 in favor of 5S whilst still adding value.

    In a few months time they will drop the price of the 5C when the China Mobile deal is announced and aggressively take market share in the high and mid income tiers of emerging markets.

    I'm just glad Apples management and Tim Cook are running Apple and not the analysts. The stock price might be lower but the company is in much better shape!

    Disclosure: I am long $AAPL
    Sep 23, 2013. 11:32 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Apple Go With Icahn's $150bn Buyback? [View article]
    I strongly disagree that Cook has done a poor job. It was always going to be an impossible legacy for him to follow.

    But people forget that Jobs presided over multiple major falls in the stock. Cook also already ran the company for three significant periods before Jobs stepped down.
    Oct 3, 2013. 10:40 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Could Take Another Beating [View article]
    Ultimately in the long run valuations always matter. Apple is trading at 4.5x EV/EBITDA and is crazily cheap versus peers. Apple's stock is no longer in fashion for investors and as a result is a bargain.

    Over a third of Apples market cap is now in cash. It's enterprise value is now down over 50% since the peak.

    There are so many near potential near term catalysts I think you would have to be crazy to short the stock. The risk reward to shorting the stock is terrible because the downside is capped. What happens if Apple announces a $50 special dividend, shorts would get crushed. Investors just need to have some patience and trust management. The risk reward to owning this stock is fantastic.

    Disclosure: I am long Apple (AAPL)
    Apr 3, 2013. 08:38 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Shale Oil Boosters Are Charlatans In Disguise [View article]
    Thank you for an interesting article you make some good points. However I think you underestimate the power of technology. Your analysis doesn't consider that we are now more energy efficient (and getting more efficient). A car can run a lot further today on the same petrol versus 50 years ago. Even something as simple as insulating our homes better can save huge amounts of energy.

    And the EROEI of renewable technologies such as solar is getting stronger by the day. There are also other options for cheaper energy such as the nuclear route. Morgans conclusion is far too pessimistic.
    Jan 26, 2014. 08:05 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's The Ecosystem, Stupid: What The Ratings Agencies Said About Apple [View article]
    The idea to borrow money and buy back stock is an excellent one. By buying back stock Apple can create huge value for shareholders if the stock goes back up. It's a great way to bet on itself.
    Apr 24, 2013. 06:39 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha And David Einhorn: The Real Story [View article]
    Well done SA
    Mar 24, 2014. 06:29 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's 5c Phone Pricing Makes Perfect Sense [View article]
    I played the January quarter and I was wrong. I have no regrets. You'll note that I predicted two of the biggest trends of the year. The improvement in the UK housing market and the rise in market interest rates. And I showed how to take advantage of the rise in rates with ICAP
    Sep 12, 2013. 07:11 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Apple May Fail In China [View article]
    The phone is priced for launch see my article

    Everyone is talking about the price like it's set in stone. As others have said China mobile isn't ready yet.

    As Apple ramps up volumes and initial demand cools I expect a drop in the price of the 5C when the China mobile deal is announced in a few months time. Apple has shown it is willing to sacrifice margins to gain market share. Look at its recent pricing in India. But it makes no sense to price the phone cheaply at launch when they will struggle to meet initial demand anyway.
    Sep 13, 2013. 12:10 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tim Cook (AAPL) testifies at a Senate hearing on corporate offshore taxes. "We don't depend on tax gimmicks," Cook asserts, while pushing for a big overhaul of U.S. corporate tax code. "Apple has always believed in the simple, not the complex." Sen. John McCain isn't satisfied with Apple's defenses, claiming the company "has violated the spirit of the law if not the letter of the law." Sen. Rand Paul has strongly defended Apple. "Congress should be on trial here for creating a byzantine tax code." (previous[View news story]
    actually ever since Cook started speaking the stock has gone straight. Up $10 since he started speaking
    May 21, 2013. 01:02 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Should Take A Bite At Blackberry [View article]
    Cook is doing an excellent job at Apple in what is probably the toughest job in the world and he doesn't get nearly enough credit. He is a huge asset.

    Buying BBRY would be a huge error. It would be a pointless distraction which would have no significant impact on earnings. At the worst it might damage both brands.

    BBRY doesn't fit into Apple's culture. They are totally different and Apple could not care less about the BBRY hardware business. Government agencies and corporations are already flocking to Apple in droves. Apple now has the edge on security and the added uncertainty over BBRY is causing their business to collapse. Maybe if they get the chance Apple might buy a patent or two but I would literally be stunned if Apple bought the business. It would be an unnecessary headache. Others are much more likely do so.
    Sep 27, 2013. 08:05 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment