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James Yardley  

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  • 8 Reasons Cirrus Logic Has 50% Upside [View article]
    Interesting idea I hadn't even considered. It would be the largest acquisition Apple has ever made but its not inconceivable especially when you consider all the cash Cirrus has.

    I think its unlikely but you might ask why is Apple not making this sort of acquisition? It would make a lot more sense than just leaving that cash on the balance sheet.

    I disagree with Redrut I think reward outweighs the risk given how cheap the stock and its cash pile. Not losing the iPad mini was significant.

    I went with Ashraf on this one and bought the stock recently. I think both Cirrus and Apple will have a good Christmas quarter.

    I am long AAPL and CRUS
    Dec 19, 2013. 10:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bad Bank Of The Day, RBS Edition [View article]
    Wow these allegations are just unbelievable. I felt sick reading this. Well done for putting everything together into a concise article. Is this a few isolated incidents or are there hundreds or thousands of cases? My guess is this is just the tip of the iceberg and we will see many more cases in the days to come.

    I was amazed to see the stock closed up today. The initial financial impact may be negligible but if these allegations are even slightly true the political fallout could be devastating.
    Nov 25, 2013. 09:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Will Miss iPhone's Consensus Sales Of 55 Million [View article]
    Apple may or may not lose market share versus the competition (Xiamoi etc) but the point is Apple is actually selling the new iPhones for the whole quarter in China this year where as last year it was not. A major positive.

    The 5C was priced perfectly for launch. Apple didn't want developed market customers to abandon the 5S for the 5C.

    I expect Apple to drop the price of the 5C and 4S in emerging markets when it announces the China mobile deal (They have shown they are willing to do with other phones in India for example).

    Regardless having a new product in the form of the 5C must be a positive versus the older products Apple was selling the previous year.

    Discolsure: I am long $APPL
    Nov 15, 2013. 08:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Will Miss iPhone's Consensus Sales Of 55 Million [View article]
    This article is full of holes. You have twisted facts to meet your own conclusions. For example the fact Apple is now selling the iPhone in China for the whole of Q1 is a major positive not a negative.

    The YoY comparison should be much easier for Apple this year as I showed in my article.

    1) Apple is selling its latest iPhones in China for the entire quarter.
    2) It is rolling out its latest phones to new countries faster than the previous year.
    3) The 5S is an S cycle phone which should mean it's easier to build and supply.
    4) Demand should be stronger for the 5S versus the 5, as evidenced by Apples record launch weekend and recent quarterly sales (up 25.6% YoY) Recent data has also backed this up
    5) Apple does not have the negative publicity with its maps application which it suffered from last year.
    6) The 5C is a new product Apple didn't have last year
    7) The iphone 4 was heavily supply constrained last year and severely limited iphone sale (This shouldn't be the case with the 4S this year). This a fact that most people have forgotten.
    8) DOCOMO deal

    And yet consensus is for just 5% Revenue growth. I'm expecting Apple to sell just under 60 million iPhones.

    Also you calculate that Apple will sell 57 million phones but then choose to ignore your own calculation. This article is worthless.
    Nov 15, 2013. 07:12 AM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Samsung's Worst Nightmare [View article]
    The article already exists
    Nov 14, 2013. 08:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barratt Developments: The Best Way To Play The U.K. Housing Recovery [View article]
    Thanks Redrut great points

    Barratt delivered its interim statement today.
    Private forward sales were up 47% to £1,127.4m for the first 19 weeks of the year. An even stronger number than the 44% increase we saw in September.

    However Barratt stuck stubbornly to its completion guidance. (It said there was a little bit of upside potential). As I understood it they said they want to push some completions into FY 15. (I don't understand why they would want to do this). They also said 4,339 or 96% of the forward order book is due for completion in FY14. I wish I'd had the chance to ask a question about this.

    Barratt gave good guidance on costs. It said it could probably hold costs flat for the current year, despite some recent worries. This should be good news for gross margins.

    The stock has sold off quite heavily today. This is mainly down to the BoE's revision of its unemployment forecasts as well as the completion guidance

    I think the market is too worried about interest rates. This revision is down to a stronger than expected UK economy, something which should after all be a major positive for the housing market. The report was actually quite dovish on inflation. I reiterate that I would be very surprised if we saw any interest rate rises before the next election in May 2015. This is a great chance to buy Barratt at a cheap price.
    Nov 13, 2013. 01:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market Has Learned From The iPad [View article]
    Yes but the marketing director in the video has a vested interest in making Sapphire appear as viable as possible. The author was right to dig deeper and give more weight to the independent analyst.
    Nov 12, 2013. 09:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Going To Be An iPad Christmas [View article]
    Thanks Jason

    No my analysis does not currently include a China mobile deal. I should have mentioned this in the article. Given all the reasons I gave above I don't think 14% YoY revenue growth for iPhones is unreasonable, even without a deal.

    And a deal is looking increasingly likely. It makes perfect sense for both companies.

    If accurate it's interesting the focus the marketing places on the 'biggest discounts'. I predicted in an earlier article that Apple would drop prices and aggressively go after share when the China Mobile deal was announced.
    This might be a reason for Apples low ASP guidance.

    Full disclosure: I am long Apple AAPL and China Mobile CHL
    Nov 1, 2013. 09:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Going To Be An iPad Christmas [View article]
    Thanks HE. You're quite right I have omitted 3 weeks of sales for the iPad 4, a bad error on my part. That's probably another 500k-750k sales. Thanks for the correction.
    Oct 31, 2013. 07:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Going To Be An iPad Christmas [View article]
    Thanks Michael. I look forward to reading your next article.
    Oct 31, 2013. 06:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Going To Be An iPad Christmas [View article]
    I agree going below $300 makes the mini look a lot more affordable
    Oct 31, 2013. 04:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Should Be Like Bloomberg [View article]
    Well said
    Oct 29, 2013. 10:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP: Problems Are In The Past, Investors Look Forward To Their Payday [View article]
    I think BP is one of the few places you can find value in the market today. Although it's not without risk of course.

    Disclosure: I am long BP
    Oct 29, 2013. 10:20 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Should Be Like Bloomberg [View article]
    I can't agree with this article. Shareholders (who own the company after all) have every right to demand a return and contribute to how the company is run.

    Apple has $150bn earning 1% a year well below the discount rate. By any measure this is an unnecessary amount of protection. It is unquestionably destroying shareholder value and we have every right to demand the capital be out to better use. Even if you don't agree with a buyback the cash should be put to better use.

    As I've outlined in my article on this
    Apple could very easily handle any debt and it would actually save cash from reduced taxation and dividend payments.

    Disclosure: I am long AAPL
    Oct 29, 2013. 09:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Unfortunately It Was A Disappointing Earnings Report [View article]
    I'm expecting Apple to have a big beat on the top line in Q1 after the conference call.

    Look at the comparable to last year.

    iPhone 5 severely supply constrained
    iPad Mini launched but iPad 4 no more than a token upgrade
    Mac sales damaged by late release and severe supply constraints.

    I wasn't surprised to see the strong revenue guidance and I think Apple has a good chance of breaking $60bn. The sell side is just catching up to this.

    The worry is definitely gross margins. I was hoping to see better guidance and higher ASPs. $577 ASP for the iPhone was poor. That said Apple still looks very cheap with a bunch of catalysts on the horizon. Article coming soon. The stock is still a buy imo

    Disclosure: I am long $AAPL
    Oct 29, 2013. 10:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment