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JAR Financial Management

 
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  • Sanderson Farms Valuation Report [View article]
    I kept shorting SAFM all the way up its recent run...Hopefully it keeps paying off like it has this week....
    Jul 31, 2014. 03:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Valuation Report For Hillshire Brands [View article]
    I think it makes since from a high level. I am planning on writing a follow up article on if I think they will get a higher price from other bidders but my initial thought is take the profit and move on. I tend to be have a bias after acquisition announcements of taking your profit and moving on. I let the arbitragers deal with trying to squeeze a little more profit out of the deal.
    May 27, 2014. 12:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valuation Report For Hillshire Brands [View article]
    Thanks....Last fall gave some good entry points to add to the position. It traded below $31 a share. Unfortunately, they had been put on our restricted list (they hired a firm I do work for) and I couldn't buy it or write about it.
    May 27, 2014. 12:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sanderson Farms Valuation Report [View article]
    I was scheduled to listen to the conferences live but got caught up and couldn't listen to it. It is definitely on my to do list.
    Mar 15, 2014. 01:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sanderson Farms Valuation Report [View article]
    I agree with every point you make. However, I believe the the grilling season, feed prices, etc...has been priced into the stock already. The points you make, are the same reasons why I do not recommend outright shorting the stock. In terms of a simple holding position, the key is that I believe there is better return potential elsewhere in the market. Also, I believe margins have peaked for the Company. Again, your point about growth is correct. However, the concern is the following; although volume has grown, it has slowed dramatically over the past year and a half.

    With regard to the earnings quality, I again agree with you about the Company not being one to manipulate earnings. SAFM is actually one of my favorite companies. That is why I don't put a huge emphasis on it in the article and just mention it as an item to watch. I actually attribute most of the accrued expenses to bonuses that were accrued due to a run up in price. These bonuses have been paid in the last quarter and acrrued expenses has already dropped back to their historical levels. That is also why I don't see the recent activity of the insiders as a big deal (they have sold a tremendous amount of shares). I attribute that to good money management on their behalf.

    Again, all my analysis are done on what I consider a conservative basis. I have not published my report on TSN yet, but on a preliminary basis I can tell you that I believe the target price will be in the high 30's low 40's and that to is on what I would call a conservative basis. That is why I recommend the long/short position. I believe there is less risk in TSN with the same if not more potential return.
    Mar 7, 2014. 10:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sanderson Farms Valuation Report [View article]
    Hi nfavret. You are correct but I believe that feed costs have already bottomed. In fact we have already seen a slight increase over the last two months which has been escalated because of whats going on with the weather and Russia.
    Mar 4, 2014. 07:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Short Natural Gas [View article]
    I agree with you on the advice of using spreads. However, as I state in other comments, the majority of people reading this article are retail investors who's only way to play natural gas is through ETFs. As I said before, these investors are going to put their money into UNG or other ETFs regardless of if I published an article or not. Therefore, since I receive emails asking me for my advice, I published an article with a trade that would help them minimize their risk. Based on the construction of UNG and nat gas being extremely overpriced in the short run I felt the trade I put in the article as being extremely low in risk for potential return (not a swing for the fence trade as other commentors have called it). The trade I presented in the article made 20% since it was published. Like you said, is a trade optimal use of our capital. I viewed it as yes, now that nat gas prices in the front months has gone down (which I thought would take a few weeks to happen not a few days), I'll take the profit and move somewhere else....
    Feb 26, 2014. 10:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Short Natural Gas [View article]
    Please see the below comments....
    Feb 24, 2014. 02:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Short Natural Gas [View article]
    I initially sold march calls a few weeks back and closed them out already. When I initiated the new short I used the April calls for the exact reason you said. I think nat. gas may spike again in the next week or two (such as what we saw today) before declining to the amount you state. I've also contemplated using longer dated options but am holding off for the time being.
    Feb 21, 2014. 09:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Short Natural Gas [View article]
    This wasn't an article to convince anybody. As I state, I have gotten numerous emails from people asking me to write articles regarding my positions in nat gas so thats what I did. I would prefer to do it via blog but for whatever reason I've been asked specifically to write articles. I only use UNG as an example of how to short nat gas. I agree with you about opening and ICE or NYMEX account. However, most readers on this site are retail investors playing with nat gas and are going to do so regardless of what I publish or not publish. The reason why I decided to write it at all is to at least provide them a way to manage their risk. I.e. using a bear call spread.
    Feb 21, 2014. 01:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Short Natural Gas [View article]
    This wasn't an article to convince anybody. As I state, I have gotten numerous emails from people asking me to write articles regarding my positions in nat gas so thats what I did. I would prefer to do it via blog but for whatever reason I've been asked specifically to write articles. I only use UNG as an example of how to short nat gas.
    Feb 21, 2014. 01:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerging Market Opportunity Offering Low Risk High Reward [View article]
    I do not view the pressures on new mines as a detriment simply because I believe other industries in the long-term will continue to grow in importance to the Chilean economy. Also, the political risk I view as being priced into the market. As for the currency devaluation, I implicitly stated this in my second bullet point regarding the Fed.
    Jan 14, 2014. 08:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerging Market Opportunity Offering Low Risk High Reward [View article]
    I agree with you. However, for this article I wanted to put emphasis on copper because I believe it is a catalyst in the near term. The points you mention are one hundred percent correct and add to the case for the long-term invetsments. I touched on these areas in the strengths section and could've gone into more detail but that information would be enough to write another article by itself. I also agree with you about the holdings of ECH.
    Jan 13, 2014. 03:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerging Markets Presenting Contrarian Opportunities [View article]
    That definitely explains the difference. I do not follow close end funds for various reasons. I would be interested in knowing a break down of what the distribution entails. Ie gains, principal, etc.....
    Jan 7, 2014. 11:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerging Markets Presenting Contrarian Opportunities [View article]
    Not sure what your looking at. TTF is currrently -35.66% off hits 52 week high and -17.49% over the past 12 months....
    Jan 6, 2014. 06:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
104 Comments
49 Likes