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Jari Ulmer

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  • This Might Be The Cheapest Investment In Apparel [View article]
    Agreed. As someone who fits their target demographic I must attest they are the best out there for males. Gap is junk, Banana is nice but 100% cotton, Brooks fabrics are often too thin, and the myriad of other specialty retailers take more trial and error than I'd care to invest. Regardless, all this speculation and gloom has provided excellently priced options on EXPR.
    Jun 10 09:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Further Withering Of Wind Power [View article]
    Futurist, very informative, you're spot on. The impression I was getting from the author in this and their earlier article is was that wind is too intermittant overall to work; which just isn't true. Micmac1 points out some smaller scale technologies to smooth out the power bumps you reference. I have a boyhood fascination with flywheels, ROI be darned.
    Apr 29 08:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Further Withering Of Wind Power [View article]
    Agreed with Ben Gee. The intermittancy of wind energy is an old argument. By normalizing production and demand in Fig 1. you're far over-representing the impact of wind energy. According to congress' statement in your original analysis wind power accounts for only ~4% of the nations entire production capacity. Yet, total power demand in Fig. 1 fluctuates by almost 30% in a day. If we shut-off and turned back on every single wind turbine in the US at once it wouldn't have nearly the "surge" effect that electrical grids deal with in a typical day. Explain, how do existing fossil fuel plants deal with a 30% jump in demand between 4-8 am, or a 15% drop between 8-midnight? This notion of "arbitrairily" having to shut down plants down for a maximum 4% difference in production is bogus. I have a hard time believe these "constraint" payments made to wind energy producers during peak winds are really "because they're producing too much"; a more logical explination is conventional plants refuse to cut their own production as the wind blows. It's a bit acusitory, but so long as wind is subsidized, energy companies that deal in both conventional and wind have a strong incentive to cap maximum wind production and effectivly double-charge consumers.


    Planning for the storage of wind power, while neat, is really unnecessary.


    Better management in projecting wind production and less reluctance to curbing conventional production are all wind power needs to succeed.
    Apr 23 12:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly [View article]
    Excellent description of UBS' leveraged offerings. I was going to do a write up on DVHL believing it's diversity and dividend would beat it's expenses and make it a long term play...not a chance.
    Mar 5 04:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Expect Rapid Growth At Pattern Energy Group [View article]
    Not sure if you're into options Dr. Konrad but PEGI has some excellent spreads currently to help boost their ~4.5% dividend. Dec-Jan volatility most certainly had something to do with it, but should growth be as stagnant as you predict, out-of-the money calls look too good to resist.
    Mar 1 07:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Still Holding Short-Term Treasuries? Lose The Risk And Choose This Instead [View article]
    ftlogin01,

    We are not comparing short-term to long-term issues in this article. SHY and other short-term funds rotate their holdings to keep their avg. time-to-maturity constant. In doing so their duration risk becomes almost exclusively dependent on changes in prevailing interest rates. Since these rates at their lowest levels in decades these funds’ risk are at their highest. If rates should continue to go lower, their risk would only continue to increase. As you were probably implying this “maximum” risk is relative; we’re talking very short issues paying very little interest. The convexity chart above illustrates how a 100% jump in rates will only generate a ~0.1% drop in SHY. The point I’ve made is why would you bother with these issues where there are better alternatives?
    Oct 31 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Still Holding Short-Term Treasuries? Lose The Risk And Choose This Instead [View article]
    Appriciated! Thanks.
    Oct 29 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Closed-End Fund Trifecta: How To Analyze A CEF [View article]
    John,

    Could you elaborate on why you look at leverage-adjusted NAV yield? I can see how that metric can provide an indication of how well the managers are timing their trading vs something passive like an ETF. However all things being equal, if Fund A beats it's benchmark with good leverage while Fund B beats it with good asset timing, aren't they both employing good management? Thanks.

    -Jari-
    Oct 24 11:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Beat Leveraged ETF Decay [View article]
    Del,

    Hope I still caught you in time for your article. You're indeed right about my volatility values being less than convention! I used a method of relating price movement to current price. In retrospect I'll stick with the tried and true standard, pure percentages are always the way to go. Luckily volatility analysis is relative, so long as you write your article with consistent methods you're evaluations will all be accurate.
    Aug 20 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Sustainable Infrastructure Income Trust [View article]
    Great coverage! After getting burned by bonds in the last few months I really wanted to switch into something more stable with a green flavor. HASI seems to be the right fit.

    How do you feel about Mr. Eckles' stance on not disclosing individual project details? I think a majority of environmentally concious investors would love to see how HASI prices and picks its projects. If not that, I'd still like to see such a breakdown per sector (solar, wind...etc).
    Aug 6 03:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Perplexing Convexity Of Rates, Bonds And Bond Funds [View article]
    Apples and oranges. Duration is calculated from time-to-maturity and yield, and basically provides the halfway point in a bond's cash flow. Since any change in rate will affect a bond's market price and thus it's yield, duration does, indirectly, reflect rate sensitivity. For an actual bond held to maturity, duration, and thus rate sensitivity, will decrease over time. So you are right, duration is important for maturity-targeted ETFs. Indexed funds like TLT on the other hand keep their time-to-maturity constant, thus, you're right again, make duration directly related to rates. However this later relationship is purely academic. For these funds, since time-to-maturity is constant, we can easily build a convexity chart that will provide us the actual changes in bond price, not just "sensitivity". For TLT the duration doesn't necessarily have to be higher than 16.84, the higher the yield of a bond the lower it's duration.
    Jun 12 05:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Perplexing Convexity Of Rates, Bonds And Bond Funds [View article]
    Diversified income funds are usually a safe bet. I'd look into Vanguard as PONDX has a fairly high expense ratio.
    Jun 12 04:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Pernicious Impact Of Index Minimum Maturity Rules On Bond ETF Performance [View article]
    Fantastic article. I've been obsessing over this phenomenon for days before stumbling upon this eloquent explanation.
    May 31 12:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Beat Leveraged ETF Decay [View article]
    Sandy,

    Please see my comment to observer55 above. According to the methods I described in this article, leveraged indexes frequently under perform their benchmarks. I'm curious to how you're not coming up with any negative performance?
    May 26 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Beat Leveraged ETF Decay [View article]
    SPY has been a near straight line up year-to-date which, when you factor in the effects of compounding, would explain why SSO has performed better than 2x. The big problem arises when the benchmark (SPY) returns 0% for the year. Volatility/time decay occurs when there isn't a clear positive or negative trend. The following are 1-year returns to the date:

    2012-05-25, SPY 0%, SSO -7%
    2011-11-05, SPY 0%, SSO -5%
    2009-10-02, SPY 0%, SSO -19%
    2008-01-11, SPY 0%, SSO -9%

    Again, this is why when we correlated the 2x/3x index for GLD to GLD's annual yield in the Compounding Curve chart above we only looked at those values around 0%. Otherwise the 2x/3x do have the potential to outperform.
    May 26 11:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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35 Comments
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