Jason Hamlin

Five Reasons Gold Will Move Higher

I agree that we are likely to get a correction in the near term. However, this could also be the start of a vertical move in precious metals where prices continue making new highs for several months. This happened in 1979-80 and will likely happen again during this bull market. Whether or not we are there is up for debate, but the point is that these type of moves are possible and could care less about technical analysis, overbought conditions, catapult formations or ratios. When a significant amount of money moves into a relatively small market, you can toss all of that nonsense out the window. Time will tell.

Current Gold Price Is Not a Bubble

Agree. Gold is heading much higher. $1350, $1,500, $2,400 and beyond.

I also believe CEF is a great buy at the moment, since they just had an offering and their premium came down. It almost always catches back up in the following few weeks.

Sold Gold

I think China will support gold aggressively around the $1,000 mark, so I'm not too concerned about a big correction. Booking profits around these levels is probably wise, but I would never be shorting gold during these times. It could absolutely spike any day if dollar dumping ensues, which is just a matter of time.

Four Major Developments Gold Investors Should Watch

How insincere to paraphrase and leave out important context. Do you work for Fox News or something?

COMEX Commercial Traders Have Taken the Largest Net Short Position Against Gold & Silver Ever on Record...

...it is interesting to note that the commercial net short position increase was actually less than the increase in total open interest. In other words, despite taking record short positions against gold, they were unable to absorb all of the buying pressure. This is further evidenced by the fact that gold has held onto recent gains and continues hovering around the $1,000 mark.


On Sep 15 04:36 PM User 377624 wrote:

> "COMEX Commercial Traders Have Taken the Largest Net Short Position
> Against Gold & Silver Ever on Record ... While this news is usually
> very bearish ... My takeaway ... is that the news is bullish..."
>
>
> Who are you trying to convince?

Too Early to Take Profits in Gold

Agree with the author 100%. I think gold will reach $1,250 before any meaningful correction. Historically, these uplegs last around 20 months and put in gains of about 70%. The current rally has lasted 10 months and has gained only about 40%. Much higher to go!

Gold: The Moriarty Warning

Any good analyst will caution investors after a significant and sustained move to the upside. I don't view Moriarity as a particularly worthwhile indicator of the future direction of the gold price. He's just advising taking some profits off the table, which is a safe move.

I don't agree that with the notion that gold can't continue climbing higher at this juncture and I don't think great caution is warranted.

The last two major uplegs both began in September, both lasted just under 2 years and both put in gains of around 70% (Sept 04 - May 06 and Sept 06 - March 08).

The current upleg started in November of 08, is less than a year old and is only up 39% thus far. Furthermore, the current move is coming off a 6-month consolidation around the $950 level, which suggests it should have the legs to continue higher. About 30% higher if history is any indicator.

Not only the technical picture points higher, but the fundamentals are a perfect storm for higher prices as well. China is buying and encouraging their citizens to do the same, Russia is buying, central banks have become net buyers and Indian investors are making up for slouching jewelry demand with new ETF demand. More and more investors are also requesting physical delivery, which is hurting the ability of paper shorts to manipulate. All of this against the back drop of record deficit spending and a crashing dollar and you have the right ingredients for much more upside.

My prediction is that while it is always prudent to take some profits off the table, Moriarity and others are way too early to be talking about any significant correction. While small pullbacks will happen along the way, I think gold will reach $1,250 before any meaningful correction/consolidation.

Four Major Developments Gold Investors Should Watch

I believe you and I regularly check gold priced in several currencies.

This article focuses on relatively new developments in the gold market. The dollar is the obvious key driver of the advancing gold price, so I didn't feel the need to re-hash that point.

Cheers


On Sep 15 08:21 AM chap08 wrote:

> You could delete your 4 items and replace them with one: the dollar.
> If you don't believe me, take a look at the gold price in a range
> of other currencies.

Four Major Developments Gold Investors Should Watch

This is simply not true axelrod. The vast majority of investors have little or no gold in their portfolios. Walk around the streets and ask Joe public if they know how to invest in gold, what the gold price is or why owning gold is important. You will get blank stares.

If/when there is a rush into gold, it will overwhelm the relatively tiny market and push prices much higher.


On Sep 15 09:15 AM axelrod608 wrote:

> I've often heard that the time to buy anything was when there were
> no buyers left and the time to sell anything was when everyone was
> buying. These days every cabbie, every shoeshine boy and every waitress
> is giving unsolicited advice to "buy gold". That may not constitute
> fundamental research, but it has been on my mind. I don't have an
> answer other than to hedge every dollar I have in gold.

Four Major Developments Gold Investors Should Watch

Exit strategy? What is that?

I use stop limits to protect capital and I diversify my portfolio. This mitigates my risk.


On Sep 15 08:32 AM Jordan Lindsey wrote:

> As a trader my primary concern is risk. You seem to only be concerned
> with the possible reward side. What happens if your magical $1,000
> price level does not hold? What is your exit strategy? You do have
> an exit strategy right Jason?

Are GLD and SLV Legitimate Investment Vehicles?

GTU and CEF are much safer investments and they outperform GLD and SLV. Get your money out of the U.S. and out of U.S. banks. GTU and CEF are in Calgary, audited 2X per year independently, allocated and segregated. See article:

www.goldstockbull.com/.../

Plus you won't be supporting and partnering with the very investment banks that are suppressing the price advance in precious metals. Sleeping with the energy or something like it.

$24 TRILLION? This can't end well, as much as I hope it does.
www.goldstockbull.com/.../

John Paulson Piles into Gold; George Soros Sells Petrobras and Potash

Oh and you should mention how gold doesn't pay interest or dividends either. I love that logic. Woe is me, with my 30% gain and no dividends, while you get a few percentage points and dividends.

John Paulson Piles into Gold; George Soros Sells Petrobras and Potash

I'll take that "useless and superstitious" investment that has returned on average 30% per year over the past decade (and much more for mining stocks). I guess I will defy logic and remain irrational all the way to the bank.

It is hilarious when gold bashers still have the nerve to talk bad about the metal despite it being the best investment class over the past 8 years. Brilliant maestro!

Is India Now Irrelevant to the Gold Market?

Thanks for the article. It would be really helpful to quantify the demand sources that you reference. Saying what percentage investment demand or jewelery demand increased or decreased does not give the true picture.

The key question is: Does the number of ounces from increased state and investment demand offset the number of ounces from decreased jewelry demand?

If the answer is yet, the price of gold should continue to rise. If the answer is no, I would expect downward price pressure.

Thoughts?

Is It Tea Time for Gold?

Some people see a double top and predict a fall. Others see it as a cup and predict a boom. If you look at the charts long enough, you can see just about anything.

If it does not rally to $925 and selling accelerates, it could prove to be a double-top. The chart is unresolved at the moment, but the point is that an explosive move can be expected in either direction (moreso to the upside in my opinion) depending on how the chart resolves.

Cup and handle patterns often look like this:
stockcharts.com/school...


On Apr 22 03:57 AM Freya wrote:

> Cup? Handle? Where does the Cup begin and why does the Handle look
> like a Flag?
>
> The uptrend line from the Oct/Nov lows appears to have been broken.
> Why haven't you extended it like you did on the left. What does that
> by itself mean to you?
>
> Better yet, why not a Double Top?

Is It Tea Time for Gold?

Thanks for the comments.

Agreed. And to clarify, I always maintain a core position (10-20% of total portfolio) in physical metal, but swing trade in and out of mining stocks. It has been a profitable strategy over the past 5 years as I have been able to outperform the gold price and the HUI consistently. Buy on dips, sell on rallies.

I also put a considerable amount of research into analyzing junior miners and near-term producers, which far outperform the majors when rallies take place and can go ballistic on a new discovery or takeover.

www.goldstockbull.com

Peace and prosperity.

On Apr 22 08:41 AM doubleguns wrote:

> Having NOTHING in gold seems to be a very, very risky position. I
> would think BY NOW everyone would have an idea that 10-20% in gold
> was just prudent.
>
> We had the 87 crash, the dot com bust, 9/11 and now this great recession.
> Whats next I do not know but I am not putting my head in the sand
> and hoping for no more disasters. Ones coming, in fact many more
> will but we dont know when. Gold is that parachute for the day the
> engins quit on your investment airplane.
>
> 100% out of PM's seems imprudent overall and borders on foolish in
> this environment since its not over. Concern for short term profits
> at the expense of long term security?